Incumbents catch a break in 2024 primaries
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Rep. Nancy Mace. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images.
House incumbents are showing surprising strength in contested primaries, two years after a historic bloodbath in which 14 members were ousted in intra-party clashes.
Why it matters: The turnabout is not for lack of trying. Pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian Democrats, the Freedom Caucus, the GOP establishment and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have all tried to knock off incumbents, with little success.
Driving the news: Reps. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and William Timmons (R-S.C.) both beat back well-funded primary challengers Tuesday night, with Mace easily dispatching former state official Catherine Templeton.
- Mace has come under fire for her vote to oust McCarthy as speaker and reports of chaos in her office, while Timmons was targeted by right-wing hardliners eager to unseat establishment colleagues.
- Former President Trump endorsed Mace and Timmons.
Between the lines: Other credible incumbent primary challenges that also failed to bear fruit this election cycle include:
Pennsylvania: Progressive Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) easily defeated Bhavini Patel, who was backed by the well-funded Moderate PAC and went after Lee's criticism of Israel.
Illinois: Small Business Committee Chair Mike Bost (R-Ill.) narrowly defeated challenger Darren Bailey, who was supported by right-wing Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Mary Miller (R-Ill.).
- Eighty-two-year-old Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) easily dispatched two younger primary challengers, including community organizer Kina Collins, who came within 6 percentage points of defeating Davis in 2022.
Texas: Establishment-backed Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) was forced into a runoff with Brandon Herrera, a pro-gun YouTuber endorsed by a half dozen Freedom Caucus members, but prevailed, albeit by fewer than 2 points.
New Jersey: Rep. Rob Menendez Jr. (D-N.J.) defeated Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla after his father, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), was indicted on federal bribery charges.
Arkansas: Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), a GOP establishment loyalist, defeated state Sen. Clint Penzo by 8 points.
Indiana: Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), who, like Mace, has been criticized for confusing public positions and staff chaos, defeated a crowded GOP primary field after reversing her plans to retire from Congress.
By the numbers: Compared to 2022, when the 14 incumbent losses marked the second-most since 1948, just one incumbent has been defeated so far this year.
- Alabama: Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) was beaten by fellow Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), after the two were drawn into the same district by a court-ordered redistricting.
What's next: Several incumbents who seemed vulnerable at the start of the cycle now appear to be on a glide-path to reelection.
- Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) notched a win after his main primary challenger, state Rep. Adam Hollier, failed to garner the necessary signatures to get onto the primary ballot.
- "Squad" Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) are all either unopposed or facing token opposition, while Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) is the favorite in her primary.
Yes, but: A few incumbents appear to be under real threat.
- Polls show "Squad" Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) trailing more moderate, pro-Israel primary challengers by double-digits.
- Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) is facing a strong challenge from state Sen. John McGuire, who is backed by many of Good's GOP colleagues and Trump, in his June 18 primary.
