With Brexit talks still deadlocked, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has been forced to admit she may need more time to finalize a divorce agreement with the EU.
The bottom line: "May is under increasing pressure from her colleagues to take a tougher line, but in reality she is going to have to accept more compromises to broker any deal with Brussels," the FT's Sebastian Payne emails. "The outlines of a withdrawal agreement are clear. Now it is all about the tricky politics of selling it to a cabinet, party and country that are running out of patience."
Amid all the conversation around Bob Woodward’s "Fear," there was a small detail that largely escaped public notice: U.S. cyberattack capabilities against adversary missile programs are weaker than publicly claimed. Woodward reports President Obama had initiated an ongoing program that “pinpointed cyberattacks on the command, control, telemetry and guidance systems before and during a North Korean missile test launch," but "their success rate was mixed.”
Why it matters: Pre-emptive U.S. cyberattacks on conventional and nuclear missiles, and their supportive command-and-control and targeting systems, are at the heart of the U.S. defense strategy against China. But if the Pentagon is still obtaining only “mixed results” from the same kind of disabling cyber operations with North Korean missiles, which are less sophisticated than China’s, U.S. defense capabilities in this area might be less effective than advertised.
The Trump administration announced Thursday that it is downgrading its diplomatic mission to the Palestinian Authority after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem, which was in charge of relations with the Palestinians, will cease to exist and become the "Palestinian Affairs Unit" in the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem.
Why it matters: This is a dramatic decision. Pompeo described the move as technical and said it was prompted by operational efficiency, but it has big political consequences and symbolism. The decision wipes out another symbol of Palestinian sovereignty that was recognized by both Republican and Democratic administrations over the last 25 years. The consulate is also considered a symbolic U.S. recognition of the Israeli occupation in the West Bank.
On Oct. 5, President Trump signed the Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act, establishing a new $60 billion development finance agency to invest in less developed countries. The United States International Development Finance Corporation (USIDFC) will replace the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), and in doing so will double its funding and enhance its capabilities.
Why it matters: Growing economic competition from China in emerging markets has finally shaken the U.S. out of its complacency toward development finance. With new and more efficient investment capabilities, the USIDFC has the potential to re-establish the U.S. as a global leader in commercial diplomacy.
President Trump has said it would be "foolish" to cancel billions of dollars in weapons deals with Saudi Arabia over the kingdom's involvement in the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi — a remarkably blunt admission of the role the international arms trade plays in U.S. foreign policy.
The big picture: The U.S. is the world's top arms exporter, competing directly with Russia and increasingly China in a global market that's worth upwards of $89 billion annually. Saudi Arabia is currently the No. 1 buyer of U.S. weapons, purchasing nearly three times as much as any other country over the past two years. Arms deals tie ethics to economics, and theycan exacerbate geopolitical tensions in high-risk areas like Yemen and North Korea.
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein is defending Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference of the 2016 presidential election calling it "appropriate and independent" in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.
Why it matters: Rosenstein's assessment of the investigation runs opposite to how President Trump describes it, consistently calling it a "witch hunt." Rosenstein, who is overseeing the investigation, said people can be frustrated but "the public will have confidence that the cases we brought were warranted by the evidence."
Patriarch Bartholomew I, the Istanbul-based leader of more than 300 million Eastern Orthodox believers, last week moved to grant the Ukrainian church independence from Russia for the first time in 300 years. That led to the biggest split in the church in centuries.
Why it matters: This is a spiritual matter with distinctly worldly implications — after all, just four years ago Russia annexed Crimea and backed an insurgency that continues to grind on in Ukraine’s east. Many Ukrainians view the independence of the Ukrainian church through the lens of their country’s ongoing struggle against Russian influence.
A big reason for President Trump's accommodating stance toward Saudi rulers in the apparent killing of Jamal Khashoggi is rooted in a simple dynamic: Trump needs them.
The big picture: Rice University energy scholar Jim Krane has a helpful Forbes commentary on the "crude realpolitik" behind Trump's openness to the kingdom's denials of responsibility. It stems from the president's need for more Saudi barrels on the market to offset the effects of his Iran sanctions.
