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Scientists said Friday that an ice shelf the size of New York City has collapsed in East Antarctica after record high temperatures.

Why it matters: This marks the first time in human history that an ice shelf collapsed in the region, which had long been considered stable and less vulnerable to climate change. If the water frozen in East Antarctica melts, it would raise sea levels more than 160 feet around the world, according to AP.

The big picture: Ice shelves are a kind of safety belt around the margins of the continent, University of Minnesota ice scientist Peter Neff said in a video posted to Twitter. Their collapse accelerates upstream ice and contributes to sea level rise.

It'll only keep getting worse if the world keeps emitting greenhouse gasses, Neff added. 

The East Anartctica ice shelf, which was about 460 square miles wide, collapsed sometime between March 14 and March 16, AP reports.

Ice shelf collapses in East Antarctica for first time

The region had long been considered stable and less vulnerable to climate change.

Photo of a drifting ice floe and a bird flying overhead

Ice floes are seen on Penola Strait as the floes melt due to global climate change in Antarctica on Feb. 7, 2022. Photo: Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Global warming

Climate change

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

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Top Russian military officials said Friday the operation in Ukraine was entering a new phase focused on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Donbas region, claiming Russia's assault on cities like Kyiv was part of a strategy to distract Ukrainian forces.

Why it matters: Russia's advance has stalled across most of the country after four weeks of war. The public briefing, which was riddled with false statements, could signal a pivot away from what U.S. officials believed were Russia's original objectives of regime change and long-term control of Ukraine.

Russian forces have lost full control of Kherson, the first city to fall to Russia earlier this month, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Friday.

Outside of Kyiv, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has repelled Russian forces by several miles and forced them to assume a "defensive crouch."

"Clearly, they overestimated their ability to take Kyiv. Frankly, they overestimated their ability to take any population center," the U.S. official said.

Only in the Donbas are Russian forces shifting the front lines in their favor.

The big picture: Putin launched his "special military operation" on Feb. 24 after failing to reach a political settlement on ending the low-level war in Donbas that began in 2014. 

A Russian military official claimed Friday that the purpose of the full-scale invasion was to "tie down" Ukraine's forces and destroy enough military infrastructure to allow Russian-backed separatists to take full control of the territory they claim in the east.

The official did not rule out additional offensives on Ukrainian cities, but said the "liberation" of Donbas would be the main focus.

"The liberation of Mariupol continues," the official said, referring to one key city in Donbas where Russian strikes have destroyed 80% of all housing and killed hundreds of civilians, while leaving the others without heating, running water or sufficient food.

Between the lines: Vladimir Putin may be able to sell a seizure of all of Donbas as a victory at home, but it's no straightforward escape hatch.

Andriy Yermak, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, repeatedly told Axios' Barak Ravid in an interview that Ukraine will not make any territorial concessions in Donbas or Crimea to secure a peace deal.

And even if Putin decides to focus on a smaller chunk of Ukraine, the international sanctions triggered by his full-scale assault are unlikely to be lifted.

Meanwhile, the costs for Russia are climbing.

The Russian defense ministry updated the Russian death toll to 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded.

A senior NATO official briefed reporters Thursday that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers had actually been killed.

Russia claims focus now on seizing eastern Ukraine, not Kyiv

Russia's advance has stalled across most of the country after four weeks of war.

Russian military officials hold a briefing in Moscow today. Photo: Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

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The U.S and European Union have reached an agreement on a new deal enabling data flows across the Atlantic.

Why it matters: After an EU decision struck down a previous arrangement allowing EU- and U.S.-based companies to store and share data despite differing regimes governing data privacy, tech firms stood at risk without a new data deal in place.

Driving the news: President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the announcement Friday, during the president's trip to Europe.

Though specific details on the deal are still emerging, an agreement means long negotiations over how the U.S. handles the privacy of people’s data from the EU are largely complete.

What they're saying: The new agreement is called the Trans-Atlantic Data Privacy Framework, replacing the previous Privacy Shield agreement, per a fact sheet from the White House.

"For EU individuals, the deal includes new, high-standard commitments regarding the protection of personal data," the statement reads. 

"For citizens and companies on both sides of the Atlantic, the deal will enable the continued flow of data that underpins more than $1 trillion in cross-border commerce every year, and will enable businesses of all sizes to compete in each other’s markets."

Details: The deal seeks to give Europeans confidence that U.S. intelligence authorities aren't accessing their personal data via technology and information companies. Those concerns have been the main impetus for needing to make a new agreement, after various court decisions struck previous deals down.

The deal, which will include the White House publishing an executive order outlining its commitments, includes:

efforts to "strengthen the privacy and civil liberties safeguards governing U.S. signals intelligence activities," with new oversight procedures;

limited signals intelligence collection to be "undertaken only where necessary to advance legitimate national security objectives, and must not disproportionately impact the protection of individual privacy and civil liberties";

and the ability for Europeans to contest cases where they feel their data was improperly obtained.

What they're saying: "The new framework agreed to by the EU and the U.S. sets a very high standard for how governments should seek to access Europeans’ personal data and contains important rights for individuals to obtain redress if their data is accessed inappropriately," wrote Microsoft's chief privacy officer Julie Brill in a blog post. 

“Moving data freely and securely across the Atlantic is critical to businesses of all sizes and in all industry sectors,” Victoria Espinel, president and CEO of BSA, which represents software companies, said in a statement. “Today’s announcement will help restore trust, provide legal certainty, and support the digital transformation of thousands of businesses in Europe and the United States.” 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details about the data-sharing agreement.

U.S., EU agree on transatlantic data rules

The agreement will head off risks to U.S. companies in the wake of an EU court decision.

European Union (EU)

Tech Regulation

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

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Pro Rata

Axios Pro Rata

Elizabeth Holmes tried to convince jurors that she didn't defraud Theranos investors. But, were they to disagree, then she argued coercion by former business partner and boyfriend Sunny Balwani.

The jury disagreed, in January finding Holmes guilty. Now a different San Jose, California, jury is getting a crack at Balwani.

Driving the news: Balwani's trial began this week, with just a sliver of the attention as was afforded to the more public-facing Holmes.

He's accused of the same crimes as was Holmes, which is why prosecutors originally wanted to try them together (Balwani's attorneys successfully got the cases separated).

And, like the earlier trial, the defense strategy is finger-pointing. To sum up the opening argument from Balwani's attorney: Holmes was the founder and CEO, so all the bad bucks stop with her.

Thought bubble: Holmes tried to thread an incredibly narrow rhetorical needle, denying the existence of fraud while also redirecting blame. Balwani seems to be attempting something similar; claiming he was a savvy executive with lots of past success, but also a naif who was bamboozled by Holmes.

Why it matters: Accountability. Not just for the woman in front of the camera, but also for the man behind the curtain.

Trial begins for ex-Theranos exec Sunny Balwani

Balwani's trial began this week, with just a sliver of the attention as was afforded to the more public-facing Holmes.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Theranos

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

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Economy & Business

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed Friday that he has tasked a special "Tiger Team" of experts to conduct contingency planning for the possibility that Russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine or strikes NATO territory.

Why it matters: President Biden promised after a NATO summit in Brussels Thursday that the alliance "will respond" if Russia uses weapons of mass destruction, which officials fear has become increasingly likely as Ukraine's resistance continues to stall Russian advances.

Biden has ruled out sending U.S. troops into Ukraine, but Russia's claims that Western convoys delivering weapons to the Ukrainians are "legitimate targets" could test NATO's principle of collective defense, known as Article 5.

A Russian strike on a Ukrainian military site just 15 miles from the Polish border earlier this month also raised fears that the conflict could spill over into NATO territory.

What he's saying: Responding to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's insistence that Vladimir Putin will invade eastern European countries next, Sullivan said this is part of the reason Biden has ordered additional U.S. troops to deploy to NATO's eastern flank.

"We do believe that Russian aggression in Ukraine shows a willingness by the Russians to disregard international borders and to disregard the basic rules wrote by the international community that have been built and sustained over the course of seven decades," Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One.

Sullivan pointed to Russia's unprecedented military cooperation with Belarus, which borders NATO states Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, as an especially alarming development that reinforces the need for NATO to be prepared for all possibilities.

On chemical weapons, Sullivan said the nature of a U.S. and NATO response will depend on the nature of Russia's attack, but stressed that the U.S. "has no intention of using chemical weapons, period, under any circumstances."

What to watch: Biden is traveling on Friday to Rzeszów — a southeastern Polish town that has become a key hub for international aid to Ukraine — to meet with U.S. troops from the 82nd Airborne Division. 

He'll meet on Saturday with refugees and humanitarian workers in Warsaw, as well as Polish President Andrzej Duda.

Sullivan said Biden will deliver a "major address" on Saturday that will "speak to the stakes of this moment" and where the U.S. sees the conflict in Ukraine going.

U.S. engaged in "contingency planning" for Russian strike on NATO territory

The White House has tasked a special "Tiger Team" to examine a possible response.

Jake Sullivan. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Friday that he will vote in support of confirming Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. 

Why it matters: Manchin's support essentially guarantees Jackson's confirmation.

The big picture: While there are some Republican senators who have yet to say whether they will vote in favor of Jackson, if they decide not to, Democrats can confirm her with a party-line vote and Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Thursday that he will vote "no."

McConnell said that Jackson deflected questions on judicial philosophy and that he could not support her because she is backed by groups that advocate for court-packing.

"After meeting with [Jackson], considering her record, and closely monitoring her testimony and questioning before the Senate Judiciary Committee this week, I have determined I intend to vote for her nomination to serve on the Supreme Court," Manchin said.

"Her wide array of experiences in varying sectors of our judicial system have provided Judge Jackson a unique perspective that will serve her well on our nation’s highest court," he added.

"I am confident Judge Jackson is supremely qualified and has the disposition necessary to serve as our nation’s next Supreme Court Justice."

What to watch: Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) announced this week that Jackson's nomination will be considered at a markup vote on March 28.

However, under Senate rules, any committee vote can be "held over" for one week, making the committee's actual vote on April 4.

Go deeper: The Senate's Supreme Court charade

Manchin says he will vote to confirm Jackson as Supreme Court justice

Manchin's support essentially guarantees Jackson's confirmation to the court.

Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Ketanji Brown Jackson

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Axios

Friday's top stories

Ice shelf collapses in East Antarctica for first time

Russia claims focus now on seizing eastern Ukraine, not Kyiv

U.S., EU agree on transatlantic data rules

Trial begins for ex-Theranos exec Sunny Balwani

U.S. engaged in "contingency planning" for Russian strike on NATO territory

Manchin says he will vote to confirm Jackson as Supreme Court justice

Biden's careful embrace of U.S. gas for Europe

Mapped: America's COVID shuffle

Europe agrees on big new package of tech rules

The Senate's Supreme Court charade

Biden's unlikely embrace of Poland

Scoop: Manchin outlines BBB deal requirements

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