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National

Vladimir Putin has launched an unprovoked ground war in a neighboring country after only the most perfunctory attempt to convince his own people, and with no groundswell of support behind him.

Why it matters: That’s a dangerous proposition for any leader, even an autocrat as entrenched as Putin. But while some experts believe high casualties or sanctions-induced economic distress could destabilize Putin’s regime, others contend that a quick victory would solidify his historic legacy in many Russians’ eyes.

Driving the news: Hundreds of protesters marched through central Moscow Thursday night chanting "no to war," while hundreds more gathered in St. Petersburg, all despite an explicit threat of arrest from the Interior Ministry.

Meanwhile, several celebrities, journalists and other public figures publicly criticized the invasion.

That stands in stark contrast to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, when the government actively mobilized mass shows of support for a highly popular operation.

This time around, there was "no big demand" for war, and Putin — with his eyes apparently fixed on history rather than public opinion — hardly tried to generate one, says Alexander Baunov of Carnegie Moscow.

Rather than patriotic fervor, Baunov sensed the slight "embarrassment" of Muscovites on Thursday morning as they withdrew cash from ATMs in case Russia is cut off from the global financial system.

Breaking it down: Most Russians were not expecting war on any scale, let alone a full-scale invasion, but a majority also accepts Putin's argument that the West has created the crisis, says Denis Volkov, director of Russia's last independent pollster, the Levada Center. 

Just 7% blamed the tensions over Ukraine on the Russian government according to one recent poll, Volkov says. The belief in Western culpability among most Russians "will not be shaken," he adds. 

Perceptions of Ukraine were also trending downward before the invasion, in a sign that the relentless coverage on state TV had an effect even as it generated a great deal of fatigue, Volkov says.

Now public opinion is in flux. "It will depend on how long it will be, how bloody it will be, what the response of the West will be," and whether there is some form of protest movement, he says.

What to watch: Most of the groups that have rallied past protests have been systematically dismantled over the past few years, most notably Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation.

During court proceedings Thursday that could add 15 years to his prison sentence, Navalny accused Putin of launching the war "to cover up the theft from Russian citizens and divert their attention" from internal problems.

Vladimir Ashurkov, the now-exiled executive director of Navalny's foundation, told reporters over dinner in Washington on Tuesday that the timing of the trial was no accident. "Unfortunately, this Ukrainian shitstorm is putting it into the shadows," he said.

Ashurkov conceded that if Russia effectively absorbs Ukraine with minimal casualties and economic fallout, it could bolster Putin internally. Many in the business and governing elite have grown very concerned by Putin's maneuvers, he added, but Putin has shown little interest in any opinion but his own.

The bottom line: "Putin is starting to get more isolated from modernity, from the present time, and thinking of himself as a historic figure, making not politics but history," Baunov says. 

He is indeed making history, but the domestic fallout could yet pull him back into the present.

Go deeper: Ukraine-Russia crisis latest developments

Many Russians aren't buying the war Putin is selling

There have been protests in Moscow and from celebrities.

Photo illustration of President Vladimir Putin with a television set and the Russian flag

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Vladimir Putin

Russia

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

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Twin Cities

Axios Twin Cities

A jury on Thursday convicted three former Minneapolis Police Department officers on federal civil rights charges in connection with George Floyd's murder, per the AP. 

State of play: The jury, which deliberated for two days, found the officers guilty on all charges and agreed that their actions did result in Floyd's death.

The big picture: The three former officers were at the scene and did not intervene as Derek Chauvin kneeled on Floyd's neck for more than nine minutes on May 25, 2020, killing him. 

A federal indictment issued in May alleged that Tou Thao, J. Alexander Kueng and Thomas Lane "willfully failed to aid" Floyd during and after former officer Chauvin kneeled on his neck.

By failing to intervene, prosecutors argued the officers violated Floyd's right to due process and to be free from "deliberate indifference to his serious medical needs" while in custody. 

Thao and Kueng were also charged with violating his right to be free from unreasonable seizure.

Over the course of the monthlong trial, prosecutors argued that the officers defied their training and common sense by doing nothing as Floyd pleaded for help, clearly in medical distress. 

Attorneys for the three defendants contended their clients deferred to Chauvin, the senior officer at the scene, and were dealing with a chaotic situation given the growing crowd and Floyd's resistance to get into a squad car.

Flashback: Chauvin, who was convicted of murder in a separate criminal trial last year, pleaded guilty to federal civil rights violations in December and is awaiting sentencing. 

What's next: A separate trial on criminal charges brought against the three former officers has been scheduled for June.

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3 ex-officers convicted in federal civil rights trial over George Floyd's killing

The three former officers did not intervene as Derek Chauvin kneeled on Floyd's neck for more than nine minutes, killing him.

A mural of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minn. 

A mural of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minn. Photo: Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images

George Floyd

Race and Equity

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

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A new report from a broad range of disinformation experts finds influencers across many topics — wellness, politics and religion — were largely responsible for spreading viral anti-vaccination content in the U.S. over the past two years. 

Why it matters: Influencers with large followings often introduced new and personal angles to familiar anti-vax tropes, making it difficult for social media companies to moderate their comments without running into free speech issues. 

Details: The report from the Stanford Internet Observatory, Graphika and several universities and institutes, found that the same subset of recurring actors, including political leaders and celebrities, were often the ones most effective at spreading misinformation widely. 

Many relied on tropes tied to other conspiracies, like QAnon, or religious narratives to seed new falsehoods about the COVID-19 vaccines. 

One example includes a tweet from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and an interview from Kanye West that baselessly argue the vaccine would be the "Mark of the Beast," or a biblical reference to a societally restrictive scar imposed on people by the Antichrist.

How it works: Analysts logged examples of vaccine-related misinformation as "tickets" that they then grouped together based on the narratives they used. They then measured the average weekly engagement (comments, retweets, likes, etc.) with those narratives. 

By the numbers: Overall, they found that roughly one-third of anti-vax messages analyzed in the study revolved around false claims that the COVID-19 vaccines are unsafe.

About 20% of the messaging centered on vaccine development and distribution (for example, vaccination infringing on an individual's "health freedom" and distrust of companies that make vaccines). 

Another 20% claimed vaccines were ineffective or unnecessary, and 20% focused on conspiracy theories about the vaccines.

The intrigue: Conspiracy theory influencers generated the largest share of engagement — 37% — across all anti-vax messaging throughout the study. 

One reason for this could be that those influencers tend to live on apps where users are more committed and passionate about anti-vaccination as a topic. 

Alternative social media platforms like Rumble, Gab, BitChute, and Righteon, as well as encrypted messaging apps like Telegram are popular with conspiracy theory influencers, as many have been de-platformed by mainstream apps. 

Another reason conspiracies tend to engage people is because they are novel, said Renee DiResta, a principal researcher for the study and research manager at the Stanford Internet Observatory. 

"There is a common core that feels familiar — a trope like bad guys have done a thing — but there is something novel about it that makes people sit up and pay attention," DiResta said.

The big picture: The report suggests the U.S.' biggest adversaries, including China, Russia and Iran, played a role in spreading anti-vaccination messages in the U.S.

Their involvement, which has been previously reported, suggests they see public health crises as an opportunity to sow discord and confusion in an attempt to undermine American democracy.

Between the lines: Domestic anti-vaccine influencers have a greater reach, and likely impact, on spreading falsehoods about COVID vaccines in the U.S. 

"They are real and enjoy a large following and the trust of their audience. [That] makes them a far better messenger than a state media overtly making a claim," DiResta said.

Because influencers drew from anti-vaccination narratives that pre-dated COVID, the report suggests public health experts, policy officials and social media platforms could better combat disinformation in the future by preemptively debunking — or "pre-bunking" — anti-vaccine rumors ahead of any future public health crises.

What to watch: The report authors recommend public health experts counter and address themes and tropes of misinformation rather than fact-checking individuals, and use personal stories — not data alone — for counter-messaging.

Go deeper: Personal stories have power in political arguments — and pitfalls 

Influencers played outsized role in pushing anti-vax conspiracies

A new report found recurring actors spread misinformation widely.

Illustration of a syringe popping a speech-bubble shaped balloon

Misinformation

Coronavirus

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Prices are going up and everyone wants someone to blame. For conservatives and Republicans that's easy: They can blame the president and his stimulus spending. On the other side, some progressive groups and Democratic lawmakers are arguing that corporate greed is making inflation worse — and pushing the White House to talk about this more. 

Why it matters: It's natural to want a clear story to tell about inflation, with an obvious villain. But prices are rising for all kinds of reasons — yes, fiscal stimulus but also busted supply chains, increased demand, changing consumer preferences. It's not a simple story.

What they’re saying: "President Biden has been dealt a tough hand on inflation but going after corporate profiteering is a strong card to play," says Dan Crawford, press secretary at The Hub Project, one of the progressive groups urging the administration to message this harder. He points to partisan polling that suggests Americans do blame big companies for higher prices. 

Yes, but: The White House has talked up this issue, mostly in very specific instances — like meat processing — and got pushback from other left-leaning types. The narrative is "nonsense," writes Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell. 

State of play: Progressive groups aren't saying companies shouldn't raise prices to keep up with inflation. The argument is that companies are using inflation as an excuse to jack up their profit margins — passing on the rising cost of doing business and then some. 

Progressives, lawmakers and the White House point to decades of corporate consolidation as a longstanding driver of inflation — some industries are dominated by just a few players. 

Details: Earlier this month, meat packer Tyson Foods announced its first quarter profits doubled. Its profit margins on beef at 19.1% were up six points from the previous year, and overall profit margins widened to 11.1% from 9.5%. Tyson is one of four meat processors that dominate that market. 

Amazon announced a 17% increase in the price of its annual Prime subscription service. "Nobody seems to be blinking at that," said Lisa Shalett, CIO at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "I almost fainted."

On earnings calls and in interviews, chief executives talk about passing on costs to consumers who have so far proved willing to pay. 

"We’re pretty fortunate with the pricing power that we have ... we know if we need to take more pricing, we have room to do it. To date, we have seen no resistance from our customers," said Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol on CNBC earlier this month.  

Hotel owners Hilton and Marriott are trying to figure out how to take advantage of the inflationary moment to achieve higher profit margins, possibly by dialing back services like daily room cleanings, as Neil Irwin wrote in last week's edition of Axios Capital. 

Some Democratic Senators are blasting this message. 

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is one of several Democrats who told Axios' Sophia Cai they're concerned about corporations pushing brazen price spikes under cover of inflation.

Wanted: Inflation scapegoat

Everyone’s looking for a villain in the inflation narrative

Axios

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Influencers played outsized role in pushing anti-vax conspiracies

Wanted: Inflation scapegoat

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