National

President Biden assured President Volodymyr Zelensky during a call Sunday that the U.S. and its allies will "respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement.

Why it matters: The call is the latest communication between the two leaders ahead of a series of diplomatic talks between Washington and Moscow this month addressing Russia's military buildup along its border with Ukraine.

Driving the news: With Russia moving nearly 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, U.S. and European allies have been working to avert a potential large-scale invasion early this year.

What they're saying: "President Biden underscored the commitment of the United States and its allies and partners to the principle of 'nothing about you without you,'" Psaki noted.

Biden also "reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity" and expressed support for confidence-building measures to reduce tensions in Donbas, Psaki added.

The big picture: The U.S. and Russia agreed last week to hold bilateral talks on Jan. 10, followed by a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council on Jan. 12 and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on Jan. 13.

During a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 30, Biden laid out "two paths" for how the crisis in Ukraine could play out, either via diplomacy or deterrence. 

During a call with Zelensky in early December, Biden "made very clear that one nation can't force another nation to change its borders."

Go deeper: Biden lays out "two paths" for Ukraine crisis in call with Putin

Biden assures Ukraine that U.S. will "respond decisively" if Russia invades

The call comes ahead of bilateral talks between the U.S. and Russia later this month.

Biden holds a call with Volodymyr Zelenskiy

Biden holds a call with Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Dec. 9. Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Ukraine

World

The Senate Democratic Caucus sees salvaging the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better package as key to boosting the party’s chances in this fall's midterms, especially as President Biden’s popularity sags in the polls.

Why it matters: The White House isn't the only one still courting Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) or his all-important vote.

What we’re hearing: Democratic leaders are largely in the same place with the BBB talks as they were before breaking for their holiday recess.

“People have had time to cool off; Manchin’s had time to cool off,” a senior Senate Democratic aide told Axios. “We’ll have to see now what becomes possible.”

What to watch: All eyes are on Monday night’s Senate leadership meeting, which Manchin will attend, and Tuesday’s weekly caucus lunch.

The lunch will be the first time all Senate Democrats are together in one room since Manchin made his opposition to the bill public last month.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will use the occasion as the marker for whether to hold a vote to proceed on BBB or hold off to try to negotiate more, Senate leadership aides tell Axios.

Schumer still plans to hold a vote on the mammoth package this month.

If he pushes for this week, that would be “a bad sign,” one aide said. 

A snap-vote would indicate Democratic leaders expect the package to fail but want to give members an opportunity to vote for it.

That also would force Manchin to go on record voting against it.

Schumer's also planning to put a voting rights package — pushed by Manchin and backed by his fellow Democrats — on the floor this month.

The measure will fail to get the 10 GOP votes needed to break the filibuster, and then Senate Democrats will move to reform Senate rules, which could make it easier to pass their voting rights bill.

Also this week: The one-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection is Thursday.

While the House won't be in session this week, Speaker Nancy Pelosi laid out in a "Dear Colleague" letter a series of events leaders have planned to commemorate the anniversary.

Schumer’s office says he will plan to engage in those events and is not planning separate engagements.

Senate Dems, Biden resume Manchin chase to salvage BBB

All eyes are on Monday night’s Senate leadership meeting, which Manchin will attend.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is seen addressing reporters.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Senate Democrats

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is open to reengaging on the climate and child care provisions in President Biden's Build Back Better agenda if the White House removes the enhanced child tax credit from the $1.75 trillion package — or dramatically lowers the income caps for eligible families, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: The holdback senator's engagement on specifics indicates negotiations between him and the White House could get back on track, even after Manchin declared he was a “no” on the package on Dec. 19.

The senator’s concerns with the size and the scope of the package remain.

His belief that it could cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years extends beyond the CTC issue, and he continues to tell colleagues he’s concerned about the inflationary effects of so much government spending, Axios is told.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its next Consumer Price Index on Jan. 12. Last month's reading put inflation at 6.8% for the year — fueling Manchin's opposition.

The big picture: Manchin and top White House aides traded recriminations after their negotiations fell apart — but President Biden and the senator subsequently spoke by phone late in the evening of Dec. 19.

They agreed to continue to talk, and Manchin stayed in touch with senior White House officials over the holidays.

The week before Christmas, reports emerged about how close he and Biden were on a potential deal.

The details included a $1.8 trillion offer from Manchin that contained money for universal preschool and green tax credits but nothing for the child tax credit, which provides families up to $3,600 per child per year.

Families who make up to $400,000 had been receiving some CTC payments under the program that ended Jan. 1.

Between the lines: One possible solution to the stalemate would be to remove the CTC from the Build Back Better legislation, which the Senate plans to pass with only Democratic votes.

The chamber could then have a separate, focused debate during a midterm year about making the tax credits permanent.

Some Republicans, like Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), are supportive of the CTC, but it’s unclear if Democrats could find all 10 Republicans needed to clear the 60-vote threshold for passing major legislation.

Scoop: Manchin returns to Build Back Better negotiations with demands

The West Virginia Democrat stayed in touch with senior White House officials over the holidays.

Sen. Joe Manchin is seen walking beside the Senate subway.

Sen. Joe Manchin walks alongside the Senate subway last month. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Joe Manchin

About 1 in 3 Americans believe that "violence against the government can at times be justified," a year out from the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, a poll by the Washington Post and the University of Maryland out Saturday found.

Why it matters: It's the largest share of respondents to hold that view in similar polls in the last two decades, according to the Post, which said the findings "offer a window into the country’s psyche at a tumultuous period in American history."

It comes after "last year’s insurrection, the rise of Trump’s election claims as an energizing force on the right, deepening fissures over the government’s role in combating the pandemic, and mounting racial justice protests sparked by police killings of Black Americans," writes the Post.

By the numbers: A majority of adults still say violence is never justified. But that number, 62%, is a new low, per the Post. Some 90% believed it was never justified in the 1990s.

The new poll found that 40% of Republicans and 41% of independents said violence can be acceptable, compared with 23% of Democrats. Forty percent of white Americans said violence can be justified, compared with 18% of Black Americans.

Flashback: The percentage of adults who said violence is justified was 23% in 2015 and 16% in 2010 in polls by CBS News and the New York Times respectively, according to the Post.

What they're saying: "People’s reasoning for what they considered acceptable violence against the government varied, from what they considered to be overreaching coronavirus restrictions, to the disenfranchisement of minority voters, to the oppression of Americans," the Post writes.

"Responses to an open-ended question on the survey about hypothetical justifications included repeated mentions of 'autocracy,' 'tyranny,' 'corruption' and a loss of freedoms."

Separately, a CBS News/YouGov poll out Sunday found that 68% of respondents believed the events of Jan. 6 were a sign of increasing political violence, rather than an isolated incident.

Sixty-six percent of respondents also said they believe that U.S. democracy today is threatened, and 62% expect violence from the losing side in future presidential elections.

At least a quarter of respondents denoted issues of civil rights, gun policies, abortion rights and labor policies as important enough that violence "might be justified, depending on the situation," per CBS.

Methodology: The Washington Post-University of Maryland poll was conducted online and by phone Dec. 17-19, 2021, among a random national sample of 1,101 adults. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of ±4 points.

The CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,063 U.S. adult residents interviewed between Dec. 27-30, 2021. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as to 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.6 points.

Poll: Americans increasingly justifying political violence

A majority of U.S. adults still say violence is never justified. But that number is a new low.

Photo: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Polls

Labor Market

Tampa Bay

Axios Tampa Bay

Twitter permanently suspended Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's personal account on Sunday, for "repeated violations" of the platform's COVID misinformation policy.

Why it matters: The Georgia Republican is an outspoken critic of coronavirus-related mitigation measures and has posted a slew of false and misleading tweets concerning the virus throughout the pandemic. 

Greene's Twitter account had previously been suspended in July for publishing incorrect information on COVID vaccinations and wearing face masks during the pandemic.

Twitter utilizes a strike system to gauge consequences when a user violates the misinformation policy, with five or more strikes resulting in permanent suspension. 

Of note: While Greene primarily uses her personal account  (@mtgreenee), she does retain access to her official congressional account (@RepMTG).

The latest: Greene on Monday said her Facebook account was suspended for 24 hours, posting a screenshot of a message from Facebook on the alternative media site Telegram, per the New York Times.

Facebook confirmed in a statement they removed a post for spreading misinformation about COVID-19, but did not answer questions from Axios on if they suspended her account.

"A post violated our policies and we have removed it," Facebook spokesperson Aaron Simpson said in a statement. Removing "her account for this violation is beyond the scope of our policies."

Greene did not respond to Axios requests for comment on recent actions by Facebook and Twitter.

What they're saying: "We permanently suspended the account ... for repeated violations of our COVID-19 misinformation policy," Twitter said in an emailed statement to Axios.

"We've been clear that, per our strike system for this policy, we will permanently suspend accounts for repeated violations," it continued. 

"Diversity of opinion is the lifeblood of our democracy," House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said in a statement Monday panning Twitter's decision without mentioning Taylor Greene. "It is clear any speech that does not fit Big Tech's orthodoxy gets muzzled."

"The American experiment is dependent on the freedom and ability of Americans to express themselves, which Republicans are fighting to preserve."

The backdrop: Twitter announced that it was escalating enforcement action on pandemic misinformation over repeated violations of its policy last year, including a 12-hour suspension.

Some conservative lawmakers and media figures have complained that Big Tech companies intentionally censor their viewpoints and use this argument in their push for regulation.

Editor's note: This piece was updated to clarify that Greene said on Telegram that her Facebook account was suspended and that Facebook did not respond to Axios' requests for comment. 

Marjorie Taylor Greene suspended from Facebook for 24 hours

Greene is an outspoken critic of COVID-mitigation measures and has posted a slew of false tweets throughout the pandemic.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene at the U.S. Capitol in June. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Elon Musk

Social Media

Closer

Axios Closer

Gyms, fitness studios and other workout facilities have been slowly getting back into shape since the pandemic devastated their businesses, but the emergence of the Omicron variant threatens to reverse that momentum at the worst possible time.

The big picture: New Year's is typically a big boon to gym memberships, but Omicron threatens to undermine it if Americans decide to stick with now-ubiquitous at-home fitness options.

Where it stands: When COVID restrictions began lifting and vaccinations started in early 2021, Americans grew increasingly comfortable leaving their homes to work up a sweat.

“The last year has proven that the draw of fitness chains remains as strong as ever,” Ethan Chernofsky, vice president of marketing at foot-traffic tracker Placer.ai, tells Axios. “Should this trend hold into the start of 2022, the wider fitness space would be poised for an impressive return to its former strength.”

Who's at risk: Chains like Planet Fitness, Equinox, Soul Cycle, Life Time Fitness and 24 Hour Fitness thought they had put the worst behind them, leaving stay-at-home brands such as Peloton and Tonal scrambling to build on the success they enjoyed during COVID lockdowns. 

Yes, but: Omicron is spreading rapidly just as the new year begins. Home workout equipment, streaming services and fitness apps are readily available.

The potential return of mask mandates is particularly problematic for gyms that suffered when exercisers had to cover their mouths to work out. 

California has already reimposed its indoor mask mandate through at least Jan. 15 amid a spike in cases. But the California Department of Public Health is making an exception for workouts “if a mask cannot be worn due to heavy exertion.”

Percentage change of overall fitness sector visits in 2021 compared to 2019

By the numbers: 22% of health and fitness clubs have closed for good during the pandemic, totaling about 9,100 locations, according to the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association. Usage declined by more than 50% during the height of the pandemic.

What we're watching: Many Americans have largely returned to normal, and Republican-controlled states are unlikely to restore mask mandates or impose capacity limits on gyms.

“The business is performing extremely well. I couldn't be more pleased,” Planet Fitness CEO Christopher Rondeau told investors on Nov. 4, adding he expected the “New Year to be pretty spectacular” for his chain.

Our thought bubble: Nov. 4 feels like a long time ago.

The bottom line: Americans have embraced home workout equipment and fitness apps. But many want to work out in person again — which means government restrictions could decide the fate of gyms.

Omicron collides with New Year's resolutions

After thousands of fitness centers closed during the pandemic, the industry thought it had returned to stability. Omicron has different ideas.

A worker unfurls a folded-up treadmill at a Planet Fitness location.

A staff member of Planet Fitness prepares for reopening to the public in Inglewood, Calif., in March 2021. Photo: Xinhua/Xinhua via Getty Images

Peloton Technology

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

China

Axios China

Over the past year, Muslim organizations in the U.S., Canada, the UK, and elsewhere have become outspoken advocates for Uyghur Muslims, who are experiencing genocide at the hands of the Chinese government.

The big picture: Governments of many Muslim-majority countries have faced criticism for their silence in the face of China's repression, but Muslim citizens are organizing and speaking loudly about the issue.

As the Uyghur genocide has gained more international prominence over the past year, the fate of a once little-known ethnic group is becoming an issue of global concern.

What's happening: In September, more than 40 Muslim organizations in the U.S. and abroad announced a boycott of Hilton, after reports that a planned hotel in Xinjiang would be built atop a demolished mosque.

In December 2020, more than 70 Muslim student associations around the world and dozens of Uyghur groups wrote an open letter to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), comprised of 57 member states, urging them to denounce China's abuses.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), one of the largest U.S. Muslim advocacy groups, regularly sends out press releases highlighting new reporting on the Uyghur situation in China and demanding action by U.S. lawmakers and the international community.

What they're saying: "It’s important that all American Muslims stand together in fighting this genocidal campaign," Robert McCaw, government affairs director at CAIR, said in an interview with Axios. 

Uyghur Americans have also been impacted by the genocide, making this an issue directly related to American Muslim communities, McCaw said.

"A number of Muslim governments, though, including the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, have been silent on this issue," he added. "Thus it is our responsibility as Muslim citizens and organizations to demand justice and accountability for Uyghurs in China." 

Go deeper: Jewish groups urge Biden to take action on Uyghur genocide

Muslims in the West embrace the Uyghur cause

They've become outspoken advocates for Uyghur Muslims in the face of China's repression.

Illustration of a holding an Islamic crescent stylized in the Uyghur flag colors. 

Effective today, federal law bans many types of out-of-network medical bills and puts the onus on doctors and health insurance companies to resolve their payment disputes.

Why it matters: Consumers can breathe a sigh of relief because, in many scenarios, they should no longer face unexpected charges from doctors who are not in their insurance networks.

How it works: Patients still have to pay in-network copays, deductibles and other cost-sharing, which have been rising, but any additional out-of-network bills are now prohibited for the following services:

Emergency care in a hospital ER, a freestanding ER or urgent care center.

Elective care at an in-network hospital or surgery center, but where doctors — notably anesthesiologists, pathologists, radiologists and assistant surgeons — may be out-of-network. This is also known as "drive-by doctoring."

Of note: Ground ambulances are not included in this law, meaning three out of four insured people who take an ambulance ride are still at risk of facing surprise bills.

Behind the scenes: Instead of sending out bills, doctors and insurance companies have to resolve their differences while holding the patient harmless.

If the two sides can't agree on a payment rate within 30 days, either side can request the federal arbitration process.

The doctor and insurer then go to the arbiter with their best offer, and the arbiter picks one. 

An important point: The arbiter "must select the offer closest" to the median in-network rate unless other information "clearly demonstrates" the median in-network rate isn't appropriate, according to the government.

A host of medical providers, including the American Hospital Association and American Medical Association, are suing the government. They argue the median in-network rate shouldn't be the guiding factor for the arbiter, and the government went against Congress' intent by doing so.

Consumer protection experts have criticized the lawsuits, saying medical providers don't want guardrails on the arbitration system so they can extract higher rates.

Between the lines: Because this is a new law, we should expect the health care system won't get everything right.

"We need to be active bill readers and ask a lot of questions to our providers and insurance companies if there's a bill we don't think we should be paying," said Patricia Kelmar, the health care director at consumer protection group U.S. PIRG.

Patients can direct complaints online or through a 1-800 number.

Out-of-network doctors also must inform patients about what their care might cost, and they may ask patients to sign a form that waives their protections. (Be leery of signing this, consumer rights experts say.)

The bottom line: The law will save a lot of patients from financial ruin. But a lot of gaps remain in the health care system.

Have you been hit with a large or unexpected medical bill? Maybe the overall medical billing experience left you feeling puzzled or upset? Email bob@axios.com, so we can dig into what's happening as part of Axios' new series, Billed and Confused.

Out-of-network costs spin out of control (Nov. 16, 2021)

When you're charged a copay you shouldn't owe  (Jan. 20, 2022)

Many surprise medical bills are now illegal

Consumers getting care in the ER can breathe a sigh of financial relief.

A paper with the word "due" torn into shreds.

surprise medical bills

Health care costs

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

The pandemic that never seems to end will likely dominate our attention in 2022, along with President Biden's struggling agenda and Donald Trump's continuing hold over the GOP. 

Here’s what else Axios’ newsletter authors and expert reporters will be watching — from interest rates to Big Tech scrutiny to whether last year's climate pledges will lead to meaningful action this year. (Sign up for their newsletters here.)

Politics: One year after Jan. 6, and as redistricting resets the board, Donald Trump’s loyalty tests could fracture or radicalize the GOP. Meanwhile, Democrats’ inability to modify the filibuster or enact voting rights protections — along with their own fractures and President Biden's sinking approval ratings — could exile them from power come November. — Margaret Talev

Business: The big story of the year is going to be interest rates, both nominal and real. How far will the Fed hike rates — and how negative will rates remain once you adjust for inflation? If inflation remains high, even a series of rate hikes will leave real rates deep in negative territory, reinforcing the impression that all central banks are dovish these days. — Felix Salmon

Tech: Big Tech is likely to continue to come under pressure from regulators and lawmakers around the globe, as well as continued internal pressure from workers who want to see their employers do better. Once again, a gridlocked Congress means that states and Europe are likely to take the lead on the legislative front. — Ina Fried

Media: The media and entertainment sectors continued to see a high volume of consolidation in 2021, pegged to the rise of streaming. In 2022, we'll be looking at how those deals will shape the streaming ecosystem. Most notably, we'll be watching the formation of a new media giant through the combination of Discovery and WarnerMedia. — Sara Fischer

Work: Companies spent 2021 trying to figure out what hybrid work would look like after the pandemic, but new variants keep foiling their plans to bring people back into offices. Now, they’re hoping 2022 will be the year we finally settle into our post-COVID working world — and how that shakes out will affect everything from how downtowns recover to the way we get around. — Erica Pandey

Health care: As Omicron spreads worldwide, global vaccination rates will take on new urgency. However, with improving vaccination rates and the development of new anti-viral treatments, it's still possible the pandemic will reach an "endemic" level of disease — meaning the population has gained some immunity, but the virus continues to circulate and cause more localized outbreaks. — Tina Reed

Energy: Be on the lookout for progress, or lack thereof, in turning climate pledges into action. The Glasgow summit capped a year heavy on new emissions-cutting commitments, but big steps to transform them into reality are less certain. We'll also be watching emerging science as crucial new IPCC reports roll out, and will track unrelenting extreme weather and climate events. — Ben Geman and Andrew Freedman

Local: Cities across the U.S. will see continued transformation in response to the pandemic and other crises, such as climate change. Lagging foot traffic in downtowns and lingering staffing shortages could forever change how local business is done. Meanwhile, a greater emphasis on public transit and electric vehicles could reshape how we get from point A to B. — Emma Way

World: 2022 will be a year of seismic elections. In France, President Emmanuel Macron hopes to fend off the far right, while in Brazil, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is fighting for survival. Term limits mean new presidents will be elected in South Korea, Colombia, the Philippines and Kenya — all before Americans go to the polls for the midterm elections in November. — Dave Lawler

China: 2021 saw the entrenchment of deep animosity between the U.S. and China — and a growing chill in relations between China and European nations. In 2022, will Beijing and Washington be able to find a sustainable, peaceful way to manage their differences, or will the world become locked into another great power struggle? — Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Race and justice: The 2022 midterms are expected to focus on rising crime in cities, ongoing criminal justice reform and voting rights. Conservatives have signaled they'll use diversity lessons in classrooms and the quest for police reforms as wedge issues. But newly energized voters of color, a growing electorate in the U.S., may stop this backlash — if they get to the ballot box. — Russell Contreras

Space: The launch of the James Webb Space Telescope marks a new era for space science. We'll be watching for early results from the mission along with findings from several other new probes headed to the Moon, asteroids, Jupiter and more. — Miriam Kramer and Alison Snyder

Gaming: Big console and PC game publishers face a pivotal 2022, as the industry’s ocean liners try to tack in a direction that can offset the swelling cost of making blockbuster games. We’ll see more famous game franchises pop up on mobile, and we just might learn whether the $2 billion + invested in the controversial and unproven NFT gaming sector is a boom leading to a bust. — Stephen Totilo

Sports: This year's most important story will be the evolution of the college sports model. Last year brought the long-awaited change that allows student athletes to earn money on their name, image and likeness. How that industry grows and impacts recruiting, particularly as the NCAA hands over more governing responsibility to its conferences, will be fascinating to watch. — Jeff Tracy

What we're watching in 2022

The pandemic, President Biden's struggling agenda, Big Tech and other stories to watch.

Illustration of the year 2022 with an eye in a magnifying glass in place of the zero.

2022 elections

Emerging Tech

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

Sunday's top stories