National

The Biden administration is "deeply concerned" by new intelligence — detailed for Axios and other outlets — showing Russia stepping up preparations to invade Ukraine as soon as early 2022. 

Why it matters: Most of this was known from public sources and satellite imagery, but the administration is sending a stronger signal by releasing specific details from the intelligence community. 

Between the lines: Multiple sources who've seen the classified intelligence told Axios that some of Vladimir Putin’s covert actions make them think he's more serious about an invasion than he was when he menaced Ukraine in April with a large-scale troop build-up.

The White House is still trying to head off an invasion through diplomacy. President Biden's aides intensified rhetoric this week to counter what they call a Russian disinformation campaign to question the existence of evidence.

Ahead of a video call between Biden and Putin on Tuesday, the administration is holding intense conversations with allies and Russia and preparing a menu of possible responses, including heavy sanctions.

Ahead of the call, press secretary Jen Psaki on Saturday released a statement nothing that Biden plans to use Tuesday's conversation to "underscore U.S. concerns with Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine and reaffirm the United States’ support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine."

The details: An administration official tells us the scale of Russian forces would be "twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s rapid military buildup near Ukraine’s borders."

"The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery, and equipment," the official told us.

"We estimate half of these units are already near Ukraine’s border."

On the information warfare front, U.S. intelligence "indicates Russian influence proxies and media outlets have started to increase content denigrating Ukraine and NATO."

The bottom line: Putin has already achieved a substantial return on investment for his expensive whole-of-government operation to prepare for an invasion. 

He's induced a state of panic inside Ukraine ... destabilized an already politically weakened leader in Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky ... and forced the West to scramble to figure out how to deter him — and whether to ultimately offer Putin concessions on his Ukrainian territorial ambitions. 

Go deeper: On "Axios on HBO," Jonathan Swan presses NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on whether the alliance would do anything meaningful to defend Ukraine.

U.S. sounds alarm on Ukraine

Biden and Putin are expected to have speak by phone on Tuesday.

Conscripts line up at a Russian railway station yesterday before departing for Army service. Photo: Sergei Malgavko/TASS via Getty Images

Ukraine

Russia

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

CNN said Saturday evening it has fired one of its star anchors, Chris Cuomo, following new revelations from a legal review made by the company into Cuomo's  involvement in the management of his brother's sexual harassment scandal.

Why it matters: Saturday's firing speaks to how much pressure CNN was under by employees and critics to address Cuomo's behavior. 

New documents released last week showed that Cuomo used his contacts to garner information about the women accusing his brother, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, of sexual harassment. 

"We retained a respected law firm to conduct the review, and have terminated him, effective immediately. While in the process of that review, additional information has come to light. Despite the termination, we will investigate as appropriate," CNN said in a statement. 

Details: A source familiar with the situation tells Axios that the recommendation to terminate Cuomo came from the law firm, which uncovered the other information and advised the network to terminate Cuomo, rather than keep him suspended indefinitely. 

Another source tells Axios that the decision to suspend Cuomo this week came in response to employee frustration with the way Cuomo's ongoing scandals have been handled by the network. 

Attorney Debra Katz informed CNN this week of a new sexual harassment allegation against Chris Cuomo, according to the New York Times. 

In a statement to the Times, Katz said the allegation was made by a staffer at a different network and "unrelated to the Gov. Andrew Cuomo matter.” A spokesperson for Chris Cuomo denied the allegations to the Times.  

What he's saying: "This is not how I want my time at CNN to end but I have already told you why and how I helped my brother," Cuomo said in a statement tweeted out by CNN's media anchor Brian Stelter.

"So let me now say as disappointing as this is, I could not be more proud of the team at "Cuomo Prime Time" and the work we did as CNN's #1 show, in the most competitive time slot. I owe them all and will miss that group of special people who did really important work."

Earlier this week, Cuomo said on his radio show that the network's previously announced indefinite suspension "hurts" and was "embarrassing."

What to watch: CNN will need to fill Cuomo's 9pm primetime spot. One of the company's weekend anchors, Michael Smerconish, will fill in for Cuomo next  week. That announcement came Friday, several days after the network announced  Cuomo's indefinite suspension. 

Editor’s note: This is a developing story and has been updated with relevant news throughout.

CNN fires Chris Cuomo

"While in the process of that review, additional information has come to light," the company said.

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Whats Next

Axios What's Next

The secret to affordable electric vehicles is cheaper batteries. But after years of falling prices, battery costs are now headed in the wrong direction.

Why it matters: Costlier batteries could drive up the price of electric vehicles — threatening the auto industry's transition away from fossil fuels, and, in turn, society's fight against climate change. 

Driving the news: Soaring costs for minerals and other raw materials could push the average price of a lithium-ion battery pack to $135 per kilowatt-hour in 2022, according to researchers at BloombergNEF who specialize in studying the energy transition. 

The projected 2.3% hike would mark the first price increase in a decade.

What they're saying: "This creates a tough environment for automakers, particularly those in Europe, which have to increase EV sales in order to meet average fleet emissions standards," says James Frith, BNEF's head of energy storage research, per Bloomberg. 

"These automakers may now have to make a choice between reducing their margins or passing costs on, at the risk of putting consumers off purchasing an EV."

What's happening: Electric vehicles are about to flood dealer showrooms.

Last year, there were just 24 EV models for sale in the U.S. 

By 2025, consumers will have 146 EV models to choose from, according to IHS Markit's forecast.

Yes, but: High sticker prices, along with worries about the availability of charging stations, are still obstacles to public acceptance. 

Automakers have responded by introducing cars with a longer driving range —  which requires a larger battery.

Where it stands: Battery pack prices have been falling steadily since at least 2010, when the average cost was $1,200 per kilowatt-hour. 

The latest data shows battery prices fell another 6% from last year, to $132 per kilowatt-hour. 

The industry has been aiming for $100 per kilowatt-hour, which would put the purchase price of an EV on par with their gasoline counterparts. 

What to watch: BloombergNEF says that $100 target is still possible by 2024 but could take a few years longer because of the higher commodity prices. 

Editor's note: This story was originally published on Dec. 1. 

Electric car prices could go up before they come down

Rising commodity prices could threaten the auto industry's transition away from fossil fuels in the fight against climate change.

Electric vehicles

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

A food revolution began pre-pandemic and COVID has only accelerated that. See how America's food industry is transforming, from farm to your table.

Axios Visuals Deep Dive: Pandemic eating

Visualizing how the pandemic accelerated the food revolution.

Illustration of a fork holding a pie chart 

Visuals Deep Dive 2021

In her first major interview since the official announcement, Stacey Abrams' campaign manager Lauren Groh-Wargo quashed speculation that the Georgia Democrat would interrupt a theoretical gubernatorial term to run for president in 2024. 

Why it matters: Abrams' name has come up repeatedly as a top 2024 Democratic contender given President Joe Biden's age and Vice President Kamala Harris' low favorability ratings. 

What she's saying: Groh-Wargo, who also ran Abrams' 2018 campaign, told Axios, "Part of her being strategic is [Stacey] knows what she wants to do, and she does it, and she carries it through. I can't stop speculation, but I can tell you unequivocally she wants to be governor and will serve a full term."

Groh-Wargo has served since 2018 as CEO of Fair Fight Action, a national organization focused on voting access and policy advocacy, which Abrams founded after her last race. 

Catch up quick: More than three years after narrowly losing the Georgia governorship to Brian Kemp in 2018, Abrams announced last week she is running for a second time. 

Since her last bid, Abrams has been floated as a possible presidential, vice presidential and Senate candidate.

Go deeper: Stacey Abrams launches second campaign for Georgia governor

Abrams’ campaign manager rules out 2024 run if she wins governor's race

"I can tell you unequivocally she wants to be governor and will serve a full term" if elected, Lauren Groh-Wargo said.

Stacey Abrams

Elections 2024

Kamala Harris

Pro Rata

Axios Pro Rata

Donald Trump's social media startup on Saturday announced that it secured $1 billion in new investment as part of its ongoing efforts to become publicly traded via a blank check company. 

Between the lines: None of the investors were identified, which is highly unusual for this sort of transaction. 

Details: This is a so-called PIPE investment at around $34.36 per share.

That's a 20% discount to the SPAC's 5-day trading average through Dec. 1, but still much higher than where a typical SPAC trades before its merger is complete.

The PIPE's per share price could be adjusted up or down, based on how the stock performs once the merger closes.

What to watch: Trump Media & Technology Group still has not named a CEO, although the former President is listed as chairman, and does not plan to publicly launch any products until early next year.

Go deeper: Trump deal could spark SPAC crackdown

Trump social media group raises $1 billion from undisclosed investors

The new funding is part of Trump Media & Technology Group's ongoing efforts to become publicly traded via a blank check company.

Illustration of a happy Facebook emoji that resembles Donald Trump

Donald Trump

Social Media

IV drips — the kind you might get if you're rushed to the hospital — are trending as a spa treatment, thanks in part to endorsements by celebrities like Kim Kardashian and Madonna.

Why it matters: Like other "wellness" trends with a whiff of medical imprimatur, IV nutrient drips can be harmless or mildly restorative — or go awry, particularly in the wrong hands.

The promise is that customized cocktails of fluids and vitamins can boost immunity, cure jet lag, ease allergies, restore energy, relax you or help you lose weight.

The danger is that the treatments — which aren't approved by the FDA — can be administered by unqualified people in settings like shopping malls that aren't equipped for medical emergencies. 

Doctors aren't too concerned but scoff at the promises and price tags, saying clients are just paying for rapid hydration that bypasses the stomach.

"The most important thing they're getting is water with salt, which you could get from a sports drink," says Dr. Sam Torbati, co-chair of emergency medicine at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles.

What's happening: IV drip spas have opened across the country — not just in trendsetting cities like New York and Los Angeles, but also in suburbia and middle America.

The centers are supervised by doctors, and the drips — which take about 30 minutes — are administered by people with various medical credentials. 

Gyms and beauty salons are getting into the act, adding intravenous infusions to the menu alongside fruit smoothies and reflexology. 

Mobile IV services, which come to your home, are also gaining steam. A company called Drip Hydration, for example, will send nurses to your residence, office or hotel room to administer $299 bags of fluid-and-electrolyte cocktails with names like "dehydration," "energy boost" and "hangover."

What they're saying: "IV therapy greatly benefits athletes, patients with compromised GI and immune systems as well as patients with low energy and excess stress,"  according to Atlas Health Medical Group of Gilbert, Arizona, which is run by two naturopathic physicians. 

The practice says the benefits of its treatments include increased energy, hydration, better athletic performance, detoxification and improved mood.

The other side: "These treatments are mostly harmless and really just result in people making expensive urine," says Torbati.

"If you've been sick or out drinking, you're dehydrated — so hydrating will make you feel better."

The back story: Intravenous vitamin therapy is widely traced to a Baltimore doctor named John A. Myers, who, before his death in 1984, administered infusions that became known as "Myers' cocktail." 

This is now considered a "classic" IV drip, though specific formulations vary. One on the menu at Youth Haus in West Hollywood, California, contains IV fluid, vitamin C, magnesium and 6 B vitamins, and costs $149.

Caveat emptor: Reports of IV drips gone wrong are sporadic but worrisome.

"Risks associated with the infusion in general include blood clots, and vein irritation and inflammation, which could be painful," said Debra Sullivan, a nurse educator who participated in an assessment of spa IV drips on healthline.com, a medical information site.

"Air embolisms can also be introduced through an IV line, which could cause a stroke." 

Editor's note: This story was originally published on Dec. 1.

Massage, facial, pedicure... intravenous drip?

A faddish spa treatment involves an IV drip of vitamins.

A boutique in NYC that offers IV drip therapy

A salon on the Upper East Side of New York that offers IV drip therapies. Photo: Jennifer A. Kingson/Axios

Medicine

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Capital

Axios Capital

The best charities are increasingly effective. That's the clear message sent by Open Philanthropy, the think tank that doubles as the grant-making vehicle for Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and his wife Cari Tuna. 

Why it matters: With tech and crypto wealth becoming a fast-growing part of the philanthropic pie, there's more of an emphasis than ever on effectiveness — what the newly-divorced Melinda French Gates, in her recent Giving Pledge update, characterizes as giving as "impactfully as possible." 

Driving the news: Open Philanthropy announced in November that it was increasing its annual grant to GiveWell, another organization devoted to maximizing philanthropic "bang for the buck." After giving $100 million in 2020, Open Philanthropy will give $300 million this year, and $500 million per year in 2022 and 2023. 

The expectation is that the $500 million per year will continue indefinitely, thanks in large part to the fact that Moskovitz, like most billionaires, has seen his net worth soar in recent years. (It helps that in addition to his gravity-defying Facebook stock, he also owns a $7 billion stake in Asana, the second company he founded.) 

The catch: Open Philanthropy isn't satisfied with GiveWell giving its money to the best charities it can find this year. Instead, it's rolling over about $110 million to be spent next year, or possibly a few years in the future. 

The big picture: Up until now, GiveWell has been cash-constrained, its head of growth Ben Bateman explains to Axios, so it started with the most effective charities and then kept an eye out for opportunities that were even more effective.

With the influx of new funds, that calculation changes: GiveWell can broaden out its analysis to look beyond its current top recommendations. 

The organizations expect that ultimately they'll be able to spend all of the money in a way that's at least five times as effective as giving money directly to the world's poorest people — something that can be done via GiveDirectly, a charity GiveWell supported with $25 million as recently as 2015.

The other side: GiveDirectly is critical of Open Philanthropy's decision, saying, "We think GiveWell is thinking too small, undervaluing what can be achieved today, underestimating the costs of waiting, overestimating how much better they’ll allocate funds in the future, and not accounting for the perspectives of people living in poverty."

Between the lines: GiveDirectly is a favorite of the crypto crowd, with about 17% of its budget coming in the form of crypto. It received $1 million from ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin, $2.5 million from Jack Dorsey, and $5 million from the bitcoin-funded Pineapple Fund. It also received $50 million from MacKenzie Scott, part of an astonishing $2.7 billion she gave away this year.

The GiveDirectly dream is that crypto donations might be able to go directly to the world's poor, transparently. 

"When you can track the funds all the way to the end beneficiary," Binance founder Changpeng Zhao — known as CZ — tells Axios, you feel like in some sense you know the person, which in turn means "stronger satisfaction" for the giver.

For the record: "I do plan to donate away 99% of my personal wealth before I die," says CZ. "If you’re making money it’s natural to want to give back. That’s also the highest form of satisfaction."

That's a big deal, because CZ might already be the richest person in the world, according to the Whale Hunting newsletter. 

Philanthropy in the age of crypto

With tech and crypto wealth becoming increasingly part of philanthropy, there's more of an emphasis on effectiveness.

Illustration of two charity ribbons bent to resemble a zero and one binary code

Philanthropy

New data from South Africa suggests the Omicron variant spreads more than twice as quickly as the Delta variant, and that immunity from prior infection doesn't appear to protect a person very well against Omicron variant.

Why it matters: The findings are extremely preliminary, and there are still many open questions about how well vaccines work against the variant. But these initial breadcrumbs of data are helping the world begin to understand what it's up against.

Where it stands: It's going to be a while before we can draw any firm conclusions about Omicron. 

Until then, scientists will be racing to piece together whatever information they have, and policymakers will then have to make real-time decisions about how to apply that imperfect information. 

Driving the news: A South African preprint study released Thursday — which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed — found that reinfection is around three times more likely with Omicron than it was with other variants.

The study makes no assessment of whether Omicron can also escape vaccine-induced immunity or how well prior infections protect against severe disease.

South African researchers also released an initial assessment, which also had not yet been peer-reviewed, of how fast Omicron is spreading compared to Delta.  The variant's ability to get past the body's immune system is part of what's driving the variant's rapid spread, the NYT reports.

Experts caution that it's way too early to know for sure, but there are some signs that Omicron may not cause more severe disease than the other variants. Under the best-case scenario, it'd cause milder illness.

The bottom line: This early information underscores the importance of getting vaccinated, even if you've already had COVID.

Prior coronavirus infections may not protect well against Omicron

A new study suggests the variant comes with an elevated risk of reinfection.

Illustration of a pattern of covid cells.

Omicron variant COVID

Coronavirus

Future

Axios Future

AI companies are developing methods to interpret and synthesize voices in ads, movies and TV.

Why it matters: The advances in voice synthesis could help fix bad movie dubbing — and they come as international content is becoming increasingly important to studios and streaming platforms as part of the globalization of entertainment.

But they raise concerns about the possibility of deepfaking audio, as well as how a celebrity's voice might be used after their death.

What's happening: Foreign-language hits like "Squid Game" and "La Casa de Papel" are drawing record audiences, but subtitles are still a stumbling block for studios trying to tap a growing international market.

More Netflix subscribers watched dubbed versions of "Squid Game" than subtitled versions.

With blockbusters sucking up a lot of bandwidth, smaller producers of foreign-language content are having a hard time finding enough interpreters and voice-over actors to meet demand.

"We're still stuck in the mindset of the one-to-many broadcasting model," says Ryan Steelberg, co-founder and president of AI company Veritone.

Between the lines: Veritone has developed a product called MARVEL.ai that allows content producers to generate and license what it calls "hyper-realistic" synthetic voices.

This means, for example, podcast creators could have audio ad copy interpreted into another language and then MARVEL.ai will generate a synthetic version of their voice reading the ad in the new language.

"It gives you the ability to hyper-personalize audio on a much bigger scale and at less cost," says Steelberg.

How it works: Text-to-speech technology has existed for decades, but Veritone's product makes use of "speech-to-speech," what Steelberg calls "voice as a service."

Veritone has access to petabytes of data from media libraries and uses that to train its AI product, creating a synthetic version of the original voice that can be tuned for different kinds of sentiment or emotion, or with interpretation, speak a foreign language.

"It's no longer going to be another person's new voice speaking on behalf of, say, Tom Cruise," says Steelberg. "It's really going to be Tom Cruise's voice speaking another language."

Nvidia has been developing technology that would allow AI to alter video or animation in a way that takes an actor's lips and facial expression and matches it with the new language — so no more out-of-sync dubbing like in 1970s-era kung-fu movies.

What's next: This technology will likely first be used in advertisements, but as it migrates to higher-quality content, it will open up potential opportunities and pitfalls for celebrity talent.

"In terms of dubbing and post-production, synthetic voices will become mainstream, and you'll see that built into contracts for talent," says Steelberg. 

That won't just be to ensure Hollywood stars (and their agents) get a cut for any use of their synthesized voice, but also to prevent those voices from being hijacked for malign purposes as the technology becomes more accessible.

What to watch: How the voices and other creative attributes of deceased celebrities might be harnessed by AI.

Holograms of dead musicians like Frank Zappa are already being used to front "live" shows that have brought in tens of millions in revenue, while Kenny G recently released a "duet" with the jazz great Stan Getz, who died 30 years ago. 

Sample notes from Getz's existing library were used to generate a new, synthetic melody — albeit one that jazz writer Ted Gioia called a "Frankenstein record."

The bottom line: We should get used to hearing celebrities speak in almost any language soon — and those celebrities should get used to going through their wills with a fine-toothed comb.

AI could end foreign-language subtitles

New technologies can take a celebrity's voice and generate it in almost any language

Illustration of binary numbers inside of speech bubbles.

Artificial intelligence

Artificial Intelligence

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

A new short film warns of the coming risks posed by the development and proliferation of lethal autonomous weapons.

Why it matters: Drones with the ability to autonomously target and kill without the assistance of a human operator are reportedly already being used on battlefields, and time is running out to craft a global ban of what could be a destabilizing and terrifying new class of weapon.

What's happening: The Future of Life Institute (FLI), a nonprofit focused on existential risks from technology, today released "If Human: Kill ( )," a video that depicts what the future could be like if lethal autonomous weapons go unregulated.

In a word: horrific. The film splices fictional news clips to show drones and robots armed with automatic weapons using facial recognition to identify and kill political protesters and police, aid bank robberies, and assassinate scientists.

Flashback: The new film is a sequel to a 2017 video by FLI that gave a name for these autonomous weapons: "slaughterbots."

While many of the concerns about autonomous weapons focus on the possibility they could turbocharge warfare between states, or even go rogue "Terminator"-style, the FLI videos imagine a future where AI weapons fall into the hands of criminals and terrorists who can use them to wreak havoc.

Instead of Skynet, think self-controlled and self-targeting AK-47s, a weapon that has already killed millions of people around the world. 

What they're saying: "The weapons we portray in the film are mainly going to be used by civilians on civilians," says Max Tegmark, co-founder of FLI and an AI researcher at MIT. "And I'm so worried about this precisely because they're so small and cheap that they can proliferate."

What to watch: Later this month, a UN conference in Geneva will discuss whether to create a new international treaty banning weapons systems that can select and engage targets without "meaningful human control," as groups like FLI and the International Committee of the Red Cross have called for.

The bottom line: "Superpowers should realize that it's not in their interest to allow AI weapons of mass destruction that everyone would be able to afford," says Tegmark.

Editor's note: This story was first published on Dec. 1.

A dark view of the future of autonomous weapons

Without a ban, criminals and terrorists could one day have access to killer autonomous weapons

Saturday's top stories