Axios

The sharp spike in gas and oil prices caused by the Iran war will likely lead to a further rise in food prices in the coming weeks, economists and agricultural experts tell Axios.

Why it matters: The war is just the latest stress driving up food inflation — on top of tariffs, rising electricity prices and an immigration crackdown that has driven up labor costs.

President Trump claimed in an interview with Axios that the U.S. is "in deep negotiations" with Iran and that a deal can be reached before his deadline expires on Tuesday.

• "There is a good chance, but if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there," he said.

Why it matters: The mediators are less optimistic that a deal is close but say they will work to the last minute to reach at least a partial agreement to delay Trump's ultimatum. Trump has threatened to destroy infrastructure that is vital to Iranian civilians if he is unable to reach a deal with their leaders.

President Trump told Axios the U.S. initially worried that a message from the stranded crew member of an F-15 downed by Iran was a trick by the Iranians to lure U.S. forces into a trap.

The big picture: The crew member survived more than 24 hours in the mountains despite being wounded, before being rescued in a special forces operation on Saturday.

U.S. special forces rescued the second crew member of the F-15 fighter jet that was shot down over Iran, three U.S. officials tell Axios.

• The crew member, a weapons system officer, was wounded after ejecting from the aircraft on Friday but could still walk, and evaded capture in the mountains for more than a day, one of officials said.

The big picture: The shootdown was a nightmare scenario for the U.S. military, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also racing to locate the missing U.S. officer in southwest Iran. Both crew members were rescued in special forces operations inside Iran.

President Trump threatened on Saturday that "hell will reign down" on Iran if the regime doesn't agree to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

Why it matters: Trump's 10-day deadline to Iran is expected to expire on Monday. He previously threatened to bomb the country's energy, water and oil infrastructure if no deal was reached to open the strait.

As America pulls back from investments in traditional pillars of soft power such as international aid and broadcasting, one area stands out as a growing cultural export: music.

Why it matters: The forces that launched the U.S. to the top of the global stage in music can't be easily unwound by a single administration or policy. They are woven into the cultural fabric of America's history and identity.

One of two crew members of a U.S. fighter jet that was shot down over Iran was located and rescued by U.S. special forces, and the search for the second is ongoing, an Israeli official and a second source with knowledge of the situation told Axios.

The latest: Iran is also hunting for the crew and has asked civilians in the area to join the search, offering a reward if they're found.

The State Department expelled Iran's deputy ambassador to the UN last December, citing national security concerns, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge of the incident.

The intrigue: The U.S. decision was kept discreet at the time. It was one of at least three expulsions of Iranian diplomats in New York over the last six months.

NATO is a promise, and now it's broken.

The big picture: The alliance was built on the premise that an attack on one member is an attack on all. President Trump has made that conditional: if you won't help me in my war, I might not show up for yours.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has asked Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and two other military leaders to leave their posts, two Defense officials confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: George is the Army's most senior general and is being removed during the Iran war. Axios could not immediately confirm the reasons for his ouster, which was first reported by CBS.