Welcome to a new week and another edition of Axios World. We're spanning 70,000 years of history tonight in just 1,680 words (6 minutes)
Heads up: On tonight’s "Axios on HBO"... Vice President Mike Pence tells Axios’ Mike Allen that he'd be "happy" to see former national security adviser Michael Flynn back in the government (clip here).
The collision of U.S.-China rivalry with a global pandemic seems to vindicate the argument that globalization has peaked — supply chains will shrink, multilateralism will fade, and human connections across oceans and borders will fray.
The big picture: This narrative holds that globalization took root after World War II, accelerated after the fall of the Soviet Union, and is now under threat as nationalism rises in the West and China rises in the East.
Sachs demonstrates in "The Ages of Globalization" that since the great dispersal from Africa, humanity has been on an unceasing trajectory toward deeper linkages between more people across greater distances.
The talk of "peak globalization" is "mostly noise," Sachs tells Axios.
Sachs believes we are at a "hinge moment" geopolitically, however, as the COVID-19 crisis heralds the end of American global leadership.
Zoom out: Sachs divides human history into seven "ages of globalization."
The bottom line: Sachs' unstated argument is that the histories of humanity and of globalization are one and the same.
What to watch: Globalization allowed COVID-19 to spread to every country on Earth. Now humanity must hope the intense international effort will yield a vaccine that will spread globally too.
Sachs defines 2,000 years of globalization around a single development — the domestication of the horse — from which tremendous breakthroughs in farming, manufacturing, transport, communications, warfare and governance flowed.
Makes one wonder which “wild horses” we might be killing off today...
A poll of five countries — the U.S., U.K., Germany, Sweden and Japan — finds that concerns around getting sick or losing jobs are fading slightly, but realization is setting in that lives will be different even after the crisis abates.
What to watch: People in all five countries say that even after a vaccine is available, they will be less likely to travel by plane, use public transport and eat out at restaurants, according to polling from Kekst CNC, an international strategic communications firm, shared exclusively with Axios.
Breaking it down: Concerns about the effects of the crisis on jobs, finances and local economies are highest in the U.S. and lowest in Sweden.
In Germany, strong government actions likely contributed to the sharp decline in economic and health fears since the firm's previous poll a month ago.
Japanese people are the least content with their government’s response, by a big margin.
While 51% of Germans and 65% of Brits agree that the government “is giving business the support it needs,” very few Japanese (13%) people agree. Results are mixed for Americans (44%) and Swedes (40%).
Marching to a different tune, on Victory Day in Minsk. Photo: Natalia Fedosenko/TASS via Getty
1. Australia and New Zealand are reopening their economies and aim to share a "COVID-safe travel zone" within weeks, reports Axios’ Rebecca Falconer, who has been living under one of the world’s strictest lockdowns in New Zealand:
2. Belarus is now grappling with one of Europe's highest per-capita coronavirus infection rates, even as longtime President Alexander Lukashenko plays down the danger, Helene Bienvenu reports:
3. Sweden, which did not go into lockdown, has suffered 15 times as many deaths as has Norway, which did.
In photos: Countries ease lockdown restrictions
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
1. Countries across Asia are following China’s example and isolating even those with mild symptoms away from their families, WSJ notes.
2. Students in Beijing, meanwhile, have been given bracelets that monitor their temperatures 24 hours a day in case they develop a fever and need to be isolated, the BBC reports.
3. Cities across Europe — Paris, Brussels, London — are preparing for a post-lockdown future of wary commuters by installing miles of bike lanes, per the Washington Post.
4. The World Bank projects that remittances could drop by 20% globally during the pandemic, the sharpest decline in history — threatening the livelihoods of the families who rely on them, Axios’ Rashaan Ayesh reports.
Marking the 75th anniversary. Photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images
It's fitting that the world marked the 75th anniversary of allied Victory in Europe as it was debating how to restart economies and emerge — eventually — from a world of lockdowns, furloughs and fear.
As historian Adam Tooze notes in an essay for Foreign Policy, the lessons of 1945 have been preached repeatedly by advocates of stronger social welfare programs and deeper multilateralism, forecasters of a "green industrial revolution" and guardians of national myths like Russia's Vladimir Putin. If the modern world was born from the fires of war, why can't a new one emerge from this pandemic?
Tooze contends that the rhetoric around 1945 is "peculiarly bloodless," particularly among reformers: "a moment of collective organization and mobilization — but with the violence taken out."
In fact, 1945 was exceedingly bloody.
The bottom line: Selecting the most heroic version of the past may cause us to impose the wrong lessons onto the present.
Warner (c) and his crew of former castaways. Photo: Golding/Fairfax Media via Getty
Dutch historian Rutger Bregman had always found William Golding's "Lord of the Flies" a vexing counterpoint to his argument that humanity is generally cooperative and kind.
Why it matters: Bregman wondered how Golding's classic would play out in the real world, and stumbled upon the tale of six boys who stole away from a boarding school in Tonga in 1965 only to become stranded at sea for eight days and wash up on a deserted island.
A stroll along the Bosporus, in Istanbul. Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Image
"I think General Flynn is an American patriot. ... For my part, I'd be happy to see Michael Flynn again."— Mike Pence to "Axios on HBO," saying he'd welcome Flynn back into the administration. The episode airs tonight.