What to watch in Washington state legislative races
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Democrats need just one more seat in the Washington state Senate and another in the state House to attain supermajorities that would give them even more power in Olympia.
Why it matters: If Democrats win 60% of seats in both chambers in next week's election, they could pass bonds to pay for major transportation and construction projects without Republican votes, further reducing the GOP's bargaining power at the state Capitol.
Flashback: The last time Democrats had those kinds of numbers was in 2010, according to state legislative records.
State of play: Democrats now control the state House 58-40 and the state Senate 29-20.
- With all 98 state House seats and about half of state Senate seats on the ballot, here's what we're watching most closely.
Redistricting fallout
Republicans are fighting to hold onto control of central Washington's 14th Legislative District, which recently had its boundaries redrawn after a federal judge ruled the earlier district lines violated the U.S. Voting Rights Act.
- Democrats now think they have a good shot of picking up seats there — especially since three incumbent Republicans were drawn out of the district, leading to two open state House seats.
- More than $1.2 million in outside money has flowed into the district's state Senate race, in which Democrat Maria Beltran is trying to unseat state Sen. Curtis King (R-Yakima), who moved so he'd stay in the district.
Trump's effect in the suburbs
Republicans were nearly wiped out in the King County suburbs in 2018, during former President Trump's time in the White House.
- Now, Democrats hope to capitalize on Trump's unpopularity among suburban voters as they try to pick up seats in several other swing districts, state Sen. Jamie Pedersen, a Seattle Democrat who chairs state Senate Democrats' campaign committee, told Axios.
- Top battlegrounds include the 10th Legislative District, which encompasses Island County and nearby areas; the 26th Legislative District in Pierce and Kitsap counties; and the 17th and 18th districts, which include parts of Clark County.
Ballot measure ripple effect
Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping their voters turn out to support four statewide ballot initiatives.
- Those measures would roll back laws passed by the legislature's Democratic majorities, including a cap-and-trade law that Republicans say has led to higher gas prices.
- "It comes down to: Will people turn out with a passion not only for the initiatives, but also for the down-ballot races and support Republicans?" state Rep. Peter Abbarno, who co-chairs state House Republicans' campaign committee, told Axios.
If a Democratic socialist wins
Neither the state House nor the state Senate have members right now who identify as Democratic socialists, top Democratic leaders told Axios.
- That would change if Shaun Scott, an anti-poverty activist, wins the race to replace state Rep. Frank Chopp in Seattle's 43rd Legislative District.
- Scott, a Democratic Socialists of America member, is competing against Democrat Andrea Suarez, who leads a group that has faced criticism for its approach to clearing encampments.
Go deeper: Your guide to voting and what's on the ballot in Washington state