Data: Hines analysis of Census Bureau and Moody's data; Note: Population demand is a theoretical housing demand metric based on long-term household formation and homeownership rates by age cohort; Chart: Axios Visuals
Metro Phoenix is short around 120,000 homes, according to figures global developer Hines shared with Axios.
That's 6.5% of the metro area's existing inventory, as of 2022.
Why it matters: The major deficit is why prices have remained steep in the Valley even during this period of slow sales and high interest rates.
Context: Home and apartment building all but stopped after the 2008 housing crash, according to Colliers researcher Thomas Brophy. It restarted in 2016, then lulled again the next two years.
By the time building started up in earnest in about 2019, the region was already playing catch-up and home prices surged as a result of the low supply.
Yes, but: Even with a concerted effort to address the supply issue over the past few years, we've barely made a dent in our shortage since 2020, per the Hines numbers.