Price spikes drive choices by Illinois farmers

The big picture: Early last year, Brookings predicted that tariffs on China would disproportionately hurt Trump-voting rural counties.

• Now the Iran war has spiked fuel and fertilizer prices, heaping more burdens on rural America.

What they're saying: "It's been one bad thing after another for U.S. agriculture," vice chairman of the Illinois Soybean Association (ISA) Brady Holst tells Axios.

• "Ever since the tariffs, every time something gets solved, the next thing happens, and it's just as big of a deal."
• Holst farms soy, corn and wheat in Western Illinois' Hancock County, where 74% of the voters chose Trump in 2024.
• The ISA represents 43,000 Illinois soybean farmers.

"The Trump administration's tariffs followed by the manufactured war in Iran have sent prices on fuel and fertilizer skyrocketing and crushed international trade relationships that took decades to build," Jerry Costello II, director of the Illinois Department of Agriculture tells Axios.

Illinois Farm Bureau president Philip Nelson says high input costs along with declining crop prices are "putting pressure on already tight margins."

Zoom out: The fuel and fertilizer price hikes arrive on top of "several consecutive years of losses," American Farm Bureau Federation economist Faith Parum said on a recent media call.

• She cited a recent AFBF survey in which 70% of farmers said they can't afford enough fertilizer this year. Six in 10 reported "worsening finances."

By the numbers: Since the start of the Iran war, diesel prices have increased more than 40%, "raising costs for fieldwork, fertilizer transport and irrigation during both planting and growing seasons," AFBF noted in a recent report.

• Key fertilizer inputs, nitrogen and urea, have risen 30% and 47% since the unpopular war began, according to USDA data analyzed in the AFBF report.

The other side: USDA secretary Brooke Rollins blames American fertilizer companies for the price hikes, telling Axios, "We are putting fertilizer companies on notice — don't use the Iran conflict to exploit our American farmers."

• "President Trump has farmers' backs and will not put them in the crosshairs of bad actors," she said.
• Rollins applauded recent efforts by Northbrook, Illinois-based CF Industries to pause repairs and maintenance at one of its plants in Louisiana to produce more domestic urea.

GOP gubernatorial hopeful Darren Bailey tells Axios: "While President Trump works to undo four years of terrible economic and foreign policy decisions ... he also needs to resolve the current war with Iran so we can lower fuel prices for all Illinois families. The best thing the president can do is finish the job."

The intrigue: Like many Midwest commodity farmers, Holst pre-booked his fertilizer before price spikes, shielding him from some of the fallout.

• "If it's not any better by the middle of summer or fall, that is when you are going to see some big acreage shifts," he said, noting it could drive farmers away from corn, one of the state's biggest crops.

State of play: Farm Bureau officials say they sent the survey results to the White House and have urged officials to modify shipping rules and trade measures to ease fertilizer prices. But so far, AFBF president Zippy Duvall said, "farmers are feeling like they're in a no‑win situation."

What's next: Rollins says she is working on a plan to ease prices, but farmers like Holst say they want to see results.

• "I think there is a lot of [desire] for something to change in D.C.," he tells Axios. "I don't know if that would actually come down to someone voting Democrat or Republican, but they're definitely wanting to see some changes."

Illinois officials encourage farmers to reach out to the Farm Family Resource Initiative for help.