Trump gives Iran days to end power struggle, return to peace talks
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President Trump is giving Iran's warring factions a short window to unify behind a coherent counter-offer — or the ceasefire he extended Tuesday ends, three U.S. officials tell Axios.
- "Trump is willing to give another three to five days of ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their shit together," one U.S. source briefed on the matter said. "It is not going to be open-ended."
Why it matters: Trump's negotiators believe a deal to end the war and address what's left of Iran's nuclear program is still achievable. But they also worry they may not have anyone in Tehran empowered to say yes.
- Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is barely communicating. The IRGC generals now in control of the country and Iran's civilian negotiators are openly at odds over strategy.
- "We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive," a U.S. official said.
Behind the scenes: U.S. officials first began to see the divisions after the first round of Islamabad talks, when it became clear IRGC commander Gen. Ahmad Vahidi and his deputies had rejected much of what Iran's own negotiators had discussed.
- The split broke into the open last Friday. When Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC refused to implement it — and began publicly attacking him.
- In the days that followed, Iran gave no substantive response to the latest U.S. proposal and refused to commit to a second round of talks in Pakistan.
The intrigue: The fracture is partly a consequence of Israel's March assassination of Ali Larijani, the previous secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
- Larijani had the authority and political weight to hold Iran's decision-making together.
- His replacement, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr — whose job is to coordinate between the IRGC, civilian leadership and the supreme leader — is not effective, a U.S. official said.
Driving the news: The last 48 hours have been extremely frustrating for the White House — particularly for Vice President Vance, who had his suitcases packed for Islamabad to lead a second round of peace talks.
- Instead, he found himself waiting for the IRGC generals now in control of Iran to let parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi travel to Pakistan to meet him.
On Monday evening, the Iranians appeared to have given Pakistani mediators the green light for talks. By Tuesday morning, that signal was gone, replaced by a demand that the U.S. lift its naval blockade.
- Air Force Two sat for hours on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, ready to depart — until it became clear the trip wasn't happening.
- White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who had been set to fly from Miami to Islamabad, boarded a government plane to Washington instead.
On Tuesday afternoon, Trump huddled with his national security team: Vance, Witkoff, Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other top officials.
- Going in, some of Trump's own advisers didn't know which way he was leaning: a massive strike on Iran's energy infrastructure, or more time for diplomacy. He ultimately chose the latter.
- "The degree of the fracture became clear in the last few days, and the question was: does it make any sense to go to Islamabad like that?" a U.S. official said. "So the decision was to give the diplomatic efforts a little bit more time."
Between the lines: Several U.S. officials and Trump associates drew the same conclusion: the president thinks the U.S. has achieved everything it can militarily and wants out of the increasingly unpopular war. He won't resume it until he has exhausted every other option.
- "It certainly looks like Trump doesn't want to use military force anymore and has made a decision to end the war," one U.S. source close to Trump said.
Yes, but: If the Pakistani mediators can't secure Iranian participation within Trump's window, the military option is back on the table.
What to watch: U.S. officials and Pakistani mediators are waiting for Khamenei to break his silence in the next day or two and give his negotiators a clear directive to return to the table, according to a regional source familiar with the mediation effort and an Israeli source with knowledge of the discussions.
State of play: Extending the ceasefire cost Trump some leverage. He believes the naval blockade he kept in place will more than make up for it, claiming the Iranians "are starving for cash" and can't even pay their military and police.
- In a Truth Social post Tuesday night, Trump made clear the blockade is his primary lever. "Iran doesn't want the Strait of Hormuz closed, they want it open so they can make $500 Million Dollars a day," he wrote. "They only say they want it closed because I have it totally BLOCKADED (CLOSED!), so they merely want to save face."
- "People approached me four days ago, saying, 'Sir, Iran wants to open up the Strait, immediately,'" Trump added. "But if we do that, there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included!"
