Illinois soy farmers wait for sales and support
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A Harvard, Illinois, soybean farm this fall. Photo: Christopher Dilts/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Illinois soybean farmers breathed a sigh of relief last month when China agreed to resume strong soybean purchases in the coming years, but the relief has now turned to worry.
Why it matters: As the state that produces the nation's largest soybean crop and sells them primarily to China, Illinois has hundreds of millions of dollars on the line.
- The state sold $1.4 billion of soybeans to China last year.
The big picture: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last month said China would buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans from U.S. farmers this season, "but we've not seen any of that," Todd Main, market development director of the Illinois Soybean Association, told Axios.
Catch up quick: Amid President Trump's trade war with China this year, Chinese buyers halted U.S. soybean orders and increasingly turned to South America for the crop.
- Things took a turn for the worse in September, after the U.S. pledged a $20 billion bailout to Argentina and the country immediately suspended its 26% soybean export tax, leading to a surge in Chinese purchases of Argentine soybeans.
- "We were a little surprised by that, to say the least," Main said. "I don't really understand how that's making America great."
The intrigue: When Trump's 2018 trade war with China produced similar pain for soy farmers, the government came up with a $28 billion bailout.
- Last month, both Bessent and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told Axios a "clever and generous" farm bailout was coming after the shutdown ended. But they haven't mentioned it since.
- Main said Illinois farmers would always prefer to sell their crops over bailouts, but they are also waiting to hear any official word about help in the wake of their losses.
The other side: "President Trump is the most pro-farmer President of our lifetime," a USDA spokesperson told Axios.
- "[Trump] has made it clear he will not leave farmers behind, so USDA will continue to assess the farm economy and explore the need for further assistance, however, there is nothing new to share at this time."
Between the lines: While much of rural America, including rural Illinois, voted Republican in the last election, Main says that loyalty may not be infinite.
- "[Illinois farmers] were supportive of the administration, and I'm not ready to say they're going to change their support because we don't know what's going to happen," Main said. "But if things go south and we don't have markets and people can't make a living — that's going to change people's minds."
What's next: Main said he's trying to remain "cautiously optimistic" as soybean farmers continue to seek sales and word from the government before the end of the year.