China will return U.S. soybean purchases to regular levels, Bessent says

• China bought $13 billion of soybeans from U.S. farmers last year.
• The levels described by Bessent for the next three years would be roughly on par with what China imported annually in the recent past.

Driving the news: Bessent, in an interview with Fox Business, said China pledged to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans from U.S. farmers this season.

• Beijing also committed to buy at least 25 million metric tons a year in each of the next three years, he said.

The big picture: Soybeans became a flashpoint of the trade war in recent weeks, as much a geopolitical issue as an economic one.

• American farmers were already hurting from the lost exports — and then the U.S. bailed out Argentina, which promptly sold huge cargoes of beans to China.
• Congressional outrage followed, along with promises (still unfulfilled) from the administration of an agricultural bailout.

Yes, but: Bessent also said China's ultimate purchases were likely to be even higher than what was agreed.

• "What I would expect is, as President Trump did in 2020, after President Xi had agreed to the phase one deal, he called him regularly and got him to buy more, and that number went up much higher," Bessent said.

By the numbers: Between 2019 and 2020, Chinese soybean imports rose more than 50%, to top 34 million metric tons, per USDA data.

• That number slipped in subsequent years, closer to 26 million metric tons, before falling off a cliff this year.
• Soybean futures were initially sharply lower on uncertainty about the impact of the trade deal, though they reversed those losses after Bessent put a number on the pact.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

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