Axios

The headline from Fortune's Jeff John Roberts says it all: "The crypto world is losing its mind over when bitcoin ETFs will arrive."

Why it matters: Pretty much every major price increase in bitcoin in recent months has been chalked up to anticipation that the long-awaited day will soon arrive when investors will be able to buy funds directly tied to the spot price of the OG cryptocurrency.

Workers, employers, and investors are facing an uncommonly certain outlook for 2024 — until November. After that, it's uncharted territory.

Why it matters: Donald Trump is the great known unknown of 2024. If — and only if — he is elected president, the domestic and global repercussions will be seismic, will dwarf any other event of this year, and will only grow into 2025 as he actually takes office.

Inflation is hated mostly because it erodes the power of your paycheck. But the good news — and the reason why optimism might return to the U.S. in 2024, as I wrote this week — is that real pay hikes have now returned.

Why it matters: As Brendan Duke of the Center for American Progress writes, 57% of workers are making more money now — after adjusting for inflation — than they were a year ago. 41% of us have seen a real wage increase of more than 5%.

L'Oréal and Estée Lauder are the two largest beauty companies in the world, boasting a market share of 16.1% and 13.6%, respectively. (LVMH is a distant third with 8%.)

Why it matters: The two stocks moved in perfect lockstep with each other from pre-pandemic to the beginning of 2023 — but since then, they have sharply diverged.

Superhero films.

• OK — to be fair, these titles are still pulling over $1 billion at domestic box offices, but the trend line is going the wrong way both in terms of the number of studio releases and audience reception, Hope writes with Axios Pro's Tim Baysinger.

Details: Eight films in the genre were released in theaters in 2023, each generating on average $170 million, based on Axios' analysis.

• In 2018, there were also eight titles, which averaged about $335 million each — skewed by "Black Panther" and "Avengers: Infinity War."
• For 2024, only five major superhero titles are slated for theaters. Notably, Marvel Studios is only releasing one film — its fewest since 2012.

Continued pressures from regulators, inflation and Fed rate moves will dictate private markets and dealmaking in 2024, Hope continues.

• Stock market bulls rampaged in 2023, while private markets remained sluggish. Expect a major acceleration in venture capital and private equity activity, Axios' Dan Primack says.
• With Hollywood's strikes and a decade-low year for global M&A activity now in the rearview, media deals are expected to flow this year, Tim Baysinger and Kerry Flynn say. Eyes are on Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery, Vice, BuzzFeed and the NBA.
• Axios' health tech team, which includes Axios Pro's Erin Brodwin and Aaron Weitzman, is monitoring insurance company mergers, women's health startups, PBM (pharmacy benefit manager) shifts, and potential new treatment areas for GLP-1s.

Political campaigns and advocacy groups are expected to spend a record $16 billion this year on election ads, Hope writes with Sara.

Why it matters: A majority of political advertising dollars in the U.S. goes to local broadcast TV, but an increasing amount is moving toward digital channels.

• That means they'll use many of the same tools that traditional marketers use to profile and target us with messages.

The intrigue: As mega platforms owned by the likes of Apple and Google continue to phase out internet tracking cookies, connected TV and podcasts have grown in popularity for political advertisers.

Go deeper

🍎 Apple could soon face an antitrust lawsuit from the DOJ. (NYT)

🚪Wayne LaPierre resigns from the National Rifle Association. (WSJ)

The labor market had plenty of momentum heading into 2024. For American workers, that's welcome news. For central bankers, it might make things a bit more complicated.

Why it matters: For months, the job market pleased both worlds. Hiring had cooled, but jobs remained plentiful; meanwhile, wage gains had slowed, but slower inflation meant pay was picking up in real terms.

• Friday's jobs report showed lingering heat in wages, alongside some disappointing news on the supply of labor.

Matt Lira, a longtime Republican operative, has agreed to lead a nonpartisan group that will promote an initiative whereby all American newborns would get taxpayer-funded investment accounts.

What he's saying: "There's a wave of skepticism right now about institutions and that the game is rigged for certain players," Lira tells Axios. "Here's a way for everyone to participate in the upside of American capitalism, thanks to the miracle of compounding returns, and also help enhance financial literacy."

The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs last month while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, the Labor Department said on Friday.

Why it matters: The final snapshot of the 2023 labor market shows hot hiring — the latest sign that the American job market continues to defy expectations of a slowdown.

Tesla will recall more than 1.6 million of its vehicles that were exported to China to fix glitches with their automatic assisted steering and door lock controls, a Chinese regulator announced on Friday.

Why it matters: The recall in China over the glitches, which will be fixed with remote software updates, follows two other recalls in the U.S. last month involving millions of the company's electric vehicles that were experiencing similar issues.

U.S. gas prices have returned to the big round figure of around $3 a gallon.

Why it matters: Falling gasoline prices are typically a tonic for sour consumer sentiment.

The price of sending goods around the world is spiking after six weeks of disruptions in the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi militants are attacking commercial shipping vessels.

Why it matters: The disruptions pose a threat to the global economy, nearly four years after COVID woke the world up to the existence — and fragility — of supply chains.