National

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Procter & Gamble is recalling 18 different Old Spice and Secret aerosol sprays after a cancer-causing chemical was detected in some of the products. 

Why it matters: This isn't the first time in 2021 that a benzene-related recall has been issued. Johnson & Johnson recalled spray-on Neutrogena and Aveeno sunscreens in July, and in October, Coppertone recalled five of its aerosol sunscreens. 

Details: P&G recalled products sold in the United States with an expiration date through September 2023, and retailers have been notified to pull the products from shelves. 

P&G said in a statement that the company hasn't received any reports of adverse events related to the recall but will continue to act with an abundance of caution. 

High levels of exposure to benzene can cause cancer, as well as more immediate effects like dizziness and rapid or irregular heartbeats.

People who have purchased the products should throw them away while the company is offering refunds by filling out an online form. 

The full list of recalled products can be found here. 

Procter & Gamble recalls some Old Spice, Secret products over cancer-causing chemical

Retailers have been notified to pull the products from shelves.

Photo: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Product recalls

Retail

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

More shoppers flocked to stores on Black Friday this year compared to last, but online shopping was lower than expected, according to data from Friday.

Driving the news: Online shopping was on the lower end of what was expected, largely because people had been ringing up their shopping carts earlier in the year in an effort to skirt potential supply chain issues, according to the Adobe Digital Economy Index.

Concerns over the supply chain also likely drove more people to shop in person, according to Sensormatic Solutions, a data analytics firm.

By the numbers: Black Friday foot traffic was up 48% over 2020, but still down 28% from 2019, according to a preliminary Sensormatic Solutions report. 

Total online spending on Black Friday was around $8.9 billion, which is at the low end of Adobe’s predicted range and slightly lower than 2020, when total spending hit $9 billion, per Adobe. 

In 2019, online spending on Black Friday reached $7.4 billion, per Adobe.

The big picture: This year marks the first time where both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday "did not see an increase in online spending [year over year], another sign that consumers started to shift their spending to earlier in the season, responding to promotions and deals from retailers that started in October," Adobe said in a statement.

Overall holiday sales are predicted to grow this year, according to the National Retail Federation. 

The National Retail Foundation predicted last month that holiday sales during November and December will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020, compared with an 8.2% growth during those same months in 2020.

What to watch: Adobe predicts that Cyber Monday will be the biggest online shopping day of 2021, with between $10.2 billion and $11.3 billion spent online.

Go deeper: Post-Thanksgiving shopping looks to make up for lost time

Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to state that the data on Black Friday foot traffic was according to Sensormatic Solutions, not Mastercard.

Black Friday in-store shopping up from 2020 but trails pre-pandemic levels

Online shopping was lower than expected because people had been ringing up their shopping carts earlier in the year.

Shoppers carry their purchases during Black Friday shopping at Fashion Outlets of Chicago in Rosemont, Ill., on Nov. 26. Photo: Joel Lerner/Xinhua via Getty Images

Shopping

Axios Pro: Deals

Axios What's Next

Americans are rushing back into holiday travel, and many are taking even longer trips now than they did before the pandemic began.

The big picture: After skipping Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings last year, many people are eager to maximize this year's celebrations with friends and family. And flexible remote working arrangements make that easier than ever.

"Bleisure travel" — tacking a few leisure days onto a business trip — isn't new. But over the past year, that idea has flipped. Now, people are adding remote working days to their vacations.

"The pandemic has reshaped society. And I think how Americans travel for the holidays may be one of those lasting changes," Mike Daher, Deloitte's vice chairman of U.S. transportation, hospitality and services, tells Axios. 

Details: Overall, an estimated 53.4 million people are traipsing through airports or sitting in traffic jams this Thanksgiving weekend, says AAA — very close to 2019 levels. And there's evidence people are stretching out their holiday travel, and planning more trips before year-end.

Airbnb says bookings for long-term stays during the holidays are up nearly 70% in the U.S., compared to the same time in 2019. 

It expects that trend to extend past New Year’s into 2022. 

CLEAR, which runs biometric security kiosks at many airports, says the median trip length of its members has doubled in 2021 vs. 2019.

The extended holiday travel is driven, in part, by people blending travel and work.

Working vacationers plan to take twice as many trips, and to stay longer, than those who intend to disconnect for the holidays, according to a Deloitte survey. 

Three in four workers said they'll add at least one day to their holiday trips and 38% say they'll add three to six days. 

They also say they'll increase their vacation travel budget because of their company's work-from-home policies. 

What they're saying: Younger, tech-savvy workers are behind the working holiday vacations, Daher explains. 

"This younger generation wants a different lifestyle when it comes to work. They want to travel more, experience life, and enjoy the flexibility that older generations aren't accustomed to."

The bottom line: Younger workers might have fewer vacation days than their older colleagues, but remote work allows them to spend the holidays with their loved ones anyway. 

Americans are super-sizing their holiday travel

After skipping Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings last year, remote workers want to linger with loved ones in 2021.

Travel

Transportation

Axios Media Trends

New data shows that there's been a pullback from the historically high levels of media audience growth — and in some cases consumption — during 2020, pointing to signs of a slight "attention recession" in the past few months.

The big picture: The COVID-19 pandemic drove a once-in-a-lifetime surge in the attention economy online, but the gradual return of normal life in many places — along with media overload and exhaustion — has down-shifted consumption patterns.

Why it matters: "We're returning to more normal growth levels compared to the pandemic," says Ian Olgeirson, a research director at Kagan, the media research unit of S&P Global. "For 2022, we expect growth to tail off even more so than it has already in 2021," in some sectors. 

Details: The retreat from at-home activities has negatively impacted the growth of several media industries on a year-over-year basis.

Broadband: A new report from Kagan shows that broadband subscriber growth "cooled significantly in the third quarter," stalling in growth for the first time in three years. The decline can be attributed to "a difficult comparison with the booming gains of 2020," the report notes. 

Subscription streaming: Subscription streaming subscriber growth slowed last quarter for most of the major streaming services. "Churn is a challenge as consumers get back to a new normal routine," said Andrew Hare, SVP of research for global media & entertainment at media research firm Magid.

News: News consumption has plummeted, according to data from SimilarWeb. There's been a 12.4% decrease in readership across the top 10 most visited news sites between October 2020 and October 2021. 

Yes, but:  This year is still performing better than 2019 in terms of news engagement, per SimilarWeb.

And despite slowed levels of subscriber growth, household broadband and streaming usage is still higher than 2019.

The bottom line: "I don't think media consumption will go back down to pre-COVID levels," said Seema Shah, senior director of research and analytics, experience at SimilarWeb. 

While we've hit a point of saturation for growth across many subscription sectors, analysts say there's much more room for growth in the U.S. for free, ad-supported streaming.

What to watch: Some of the supply chain issues related to the pandemic will continue to contribute to slowed media growth for the next few months. 

Roku, for example, warned on its latest earnings call that the slowdown in its active account growth rate last quarter was, in large part, "attributable to global supply chain disruptions that have impacted the U.S. TV market."

Kagan's latest industry outlook report similarly warns that a shortage of semiconductors "will impact the flow of devices and constrict headroom for growth" for some media sectors.

America's attention recession

It may be a long time before media growth matches its performance during the stay-at-home era.

Illustration of a woman looking out a window with open curtains build into a computer screen

Media trends

Media

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Lee Enterprises on Wednesday said its board of directors unanimously voted to adopt a new measure that would make it harder for Alden Global Capital — a hedge fund known for consolidating local newspapers — to buy out the publicly-traded firm. 

Why it matters: Lawmakers, local reporters and journalism advocates have been sounding the alarm over Alden's unsolicited bid. Alden is known for buying local newspaper companies and instituting deep cuts to squeeze profits. 

A spokesperson for Alden Global Capital did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Details: Lee Enterprises' board voted to adopt a shareholder “rights plan" that gives shareholders more time to review Alden's proposal "without undue pressure," the company's chairman Mary Junck said in a statement. 

The new measure, dubbed a "poison pill" in the business industry, would kick in if Alden were to take a 10% stake or more in the company's outstanding common stock.

At that point, shareholders would have the ability to purchase shares at a 50% discount, diluting the stock and making it more costly for Alden to increase its stake in the company. 

The plan expires within a year unless Lee Enterprises terminates it sooner. The Wall Street Journal first reported on Lee Enterprises' plan on Wednesday.

Be smart: In a statement, Lee's Board said it was taking these actions in response to "Alden’s track record of rapidly acquiring substantial control or 'negative control' positions in other public companies" and "its seemingly inconsistent disclosures" on regulatory forms regarding its ownership of Lee’s shares.

Alden Global Capital bought out the remainder of Tribune Publishing in February, after increasing its stake in the company from 25% to 33%. 

Catch up quick: Lee Enterprises executives said earlier this week that consistent with its fiduciary duties, it was obliged to review the unsolicited bid.

Alden Global Capital on Monday offered to acquire Lee Enterprises for $24 per share, a 30% premium on Lee's share price at market close last Friday.

The big picture: Local newspaper companies are increasingly being swallowed up by private investment firms that aren't incentivized to invest in their longevity, causing concern about the future of local news. 

Lee Enterprises tries to deter hostile takeover by hedge fund

Alden Global Capital, a hedge fund known for consolidating local newspapers, acquired the Chicago Tribune earlier this year.

The Chicago Tribune office. Photographer: Christopher Dilts/Bloomberg via Getty Images

News media

Shoppers across the nation flocked to malls and major retailers Friday in search of "Black Friday" deals. About 158 million people were expected to shop in stores or online between Thursday and the end of the day Monday, according to the National Retail Federation. 

Why it matters: Retailers hope a desire to return to holiday traditions will translate to big spending during the annual post-Thanksgiving sales events, even in the face of supply chain issues and rising prices due to inflation, as Axios' Hope King reported.

long line of shoppers in line for cashier at a nike outlet

Lines form at checkout of a Nike Factory Store early in the morning at the Outlet Shoppes at El Paso in Texas. Photo: Paul Ratje/AFP via Getty Images 

woman with a shopping cart with holiday decorations

Holiday decorations fill the cart of a shopper at a New Jersey Walmart. Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

shoppers outside a foot locker in manhattan wearing jackets

Crowds gather outside a Foot Locker store on Black Friday in New York City's Herald Square. Photo: David "Dee" Delgado/Bloomberg via Getty Images

a man holding two stuffed pottery barn bags

It was shopping in shorts weather for deal-seekers in Naples, Fla. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

shoppers wait outside a best buy in the dark

Shoppers wait in line for Best Buy to open in Westminster, Colo. Photo: Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

In photos: Americans hit stores for Black Friday

Retailers hope a desire to return to holiday traditions will translate to big spending.

Shoppers walk through Macy's department store in New York City on Black Friday. Photo: Yuki Iwamura/AFP via Getty Images

Retailers will open more stores this year than they close — for the first time since 2017, The Wall Street Journal reports from an analysis of 900+ chains by research company IHL Group.

Why it matters: "Stores have become integral in fulfilling e-commerce orders. They serve as distribution hubs and convenient places for shoppers to pick up and return online purchases," The Journal writes. 

Mass merchants, food, drug and convenience chains are driving most of the growth, WSJ notes. 

While department stores and speciality retailers continue to close more stores than they open, the pace of the closures is slowing, The Journal adds. 

What's happening: "As the cost of acquiring customers online has skyrocketed, stores ... are a less expensive way to attract new shoppers," The Journal writes.

First time in 5 years: More stores open than close

"Stores have become integral in fulfilling e-commerce orders," the Wall Street Journal writes.

A Dick s Sporting Goods concept store at West Town Mall in Knoxville, Tenn. Photo: Brianna Paciorka/Knoxville News Sentinel via Reuters

A Dick's Sporting Goods concept store at West Town Mall in Knoxville, Tenn. Photo: Brianna Paciorka/Knoxville News Sentinel via Reuters

Convenience stores

Axios Finish Line

Inflation is driving prices up, but that's not keeping people out of stores. 

What's happening: Retail sales climbed for the third straight month in October — and industry experts say holiday shopping could come roaring back this year after a pandemic-induced slump last year.

"It's really strange because you'd expect from some of the economic numbers coming out that retail sales would be looking really terrible, but the absolute reverse is true," Neil Saunders, retail analyst and managing director of GlobalData Retail, told me on the Axios Re:Cap podcast. 

The return of a proper holiday season after months and months of isolation and stress has many Americans in treat-yourself mode, he says. "One of the things that we're seeing, especially in the run-up to the holidays, is the kind of attitude that, 'I deserve to have a good time because things have been pretty miserable for the past couple of years.'"

By the numbers: The annual rate of inflation reached 6.2% in October — the highest we've seen in more than three decades.

But retail sales jumped 1.7% in October, rising for the third month in a row. And sales are 21% above pre-pandemic levels, per the New York Times.

Krizzia Soto-Villanueva of Burlington, Vermont, told the Times she's having a "retail therapy" moment: "I'm aware prices are going up, but I spent almost two years without spending money on myself. I'm not going to spend all of my savings, but if I really want something, I'm not going to hesitate much."

Indeed, some of the retailers doing especially well right now are luxury brands like Louis Vuitton.

Between the lines: There are a few other reasons why retail is going up-and-to-the-right alongside inflation, Saunders notes.

Not all of the rise is from people buying more stuff: Higher prices themselves bloat the sales numbers, he notes.

On top of that, the world has still not returned to normal, and people aren't eating out or going to the movies the way they used to. Some of the cash they'd spend on services has been temporarily allocated to goods, says Saunders.

What to watch: Even though shopping is booming, don't expect Black Friday and Cyber Monday to reach pre-pandemic sales levels. This year's holiday shopping has already begun, as concerns about supply chain issues have pushed people to buy gifts earlier. 

But "earlier buying does not necessarily mean lower spending," says Inna Kuznetsova, CEO of 1010data, a market research firm. "Consumers are hungry for the positive emotions of in-person celebration. So we may see increased spending as well as earlier spending."

America's treat-yourself shopping season

Inflation is driving prices up, but that's not keeping people out of stores.

Illustration of a bar chart made of presents.

Axios Pro Rata

America's supply chain crisis, which has driven prices higher and made all sorts of goods harder to find, may last long after the holiday season.

The big picture: If goods aren't off a boat by now, it's highly unlikely that they'll make it onto store shelves before Christmas. And there are dozens and dozens of ships anchored offshore at the country's biggest ports.

Around 40% of U.S. container imports come through the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, but they aren't operating at full capacity.

Details: During an "Axios on HBO" visit last Tuesday morning, at least half of the visible terminal cranes were standing upright, which means they weren't removing containers from ships.  The problems are legion and interconnected.

U.S. consumers are buying more goods than ever before, thus increasing the number of arriving containers. 

There aren't enough trucks to remove all of the containers from the yards, which means cranes are forced to stop removing containers from ships. 

And all of this is exacerbated by a labor shortage, including both truckers and terminal mechanics, overstuffed warehouses, and an antiquated system that requires trucks to pick up a specific container within a specific time window (despite L.A. freeway traffic).

What happens next: Some consumer demand may wane after the holidays, helping the ports begin to catch up, but there are three more major trouble spots on the horizon:

1. The labor contract representing around 15,000 West Coast port workers expires next summer. 

This could be a very difficult negotiation, given the reinvigorated U.S. labor movement and the fact that freight shippers are generating massive profits — charging top dollar to desperate importers. 

Prior negotiations, in 2014, resulted in port shutdowns. It was bad then, but would be worse this time given the existing backups. 

2. The International Maritime Organization, which oversees global ocean freight, has been implementing new rules whereby ships must reduce their carbon footprints (which contribute around 2.5% of global emissions).

Some new technologies and fuels have been developed, but ships most commonly meet these goals by slowing down. 

3. There could be a reverse logjam next year in Asia.

Normally, a cargo ship would unload in Long Beach and then get filled back up with empty containers before returning to Asia. 

Today, however, the same problems plaguing ship unloading also applies to re-loading. Too little yard space, too few trucks, chasses, etc. The result is that some ships are leaving without enough empties, which could eventually impact the amount of cargo that's able to leave Asia for U.S. ports.

The bottom line: Time alone won't solve the supply chain crisis. 

Everything Shortage to last past Christmas

If it's not off a boat by now, it won't be on a shelf by Christmas.

Illustration of shipping containers arranged like a bar graph.

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