Behind the Curtain: America's most wanted

Why it matters: Each candidate will use the next 62 days to try to solidify and amplify several specific groups of voters.

The big picture: Harris has made progress toward restoring President Biden's winning coalition from 2020, which was imperiled when he was still the Democratic candidate. But Wall Street Journal polling shows Harris hasn't erased gains Trump had made among Black, Latino and young voters.

The voters to watch, based on our conversations with top advisers to both campaigns:

Six groups Harris is targeting:

• Women of every stripe: This is where Harris hopes to run up the score. Since Biden bowed out, poll after poll has shown women voting increasingly Democratic — an 18-point gap in the male-female vote in an ABC News/Ipsos poll out over Labor Day weekend. Reproductive rights soared past the economy as the top voting issue for women in swing states under age 45, New York Times/Siena College polling found.
• College-educated men: This group moved toward Democrats in '20 and '22, partly over concerns about democracy. We're told that Harris' pro-entrepreneur plan for small-business tax relief, to be announced Wednesday in New Hampshire, is aimed partly at college-educated voters across the board — and men are more of a question mark for Harris than women. The Harris campaign emphasizes to us that they're also aggressively targeting Black and Hispanic men, where Trump has made inroads that rightly scare Democrats.
• Young voters: This Democratic-leaning group eroded under Biden, but has been galvanized by Harris. Think of her targets as "non-bro youth." Half of registered voters under 30 say they'll vote for Harris compared to 34% for Trump, according to an NBC News Stay Tuned poll out this morning.
• Independents: This group had been wavering when Biden was in the race, but has moved decisively toward Harris in recent polls. The share of so-called "double haters" has plummeted with the new matchup, down from historic highs this spring fueled by Trump vs. Biden dread.
• Middle-class Black voters: The population that W.E.B. Du Bois once dubbed "The Talented Tenth" is driving enthusiasm among Black voters on social media, Zoom calls, and with "Divine Nine" fraternity and sorority members. They're organizing fundraising efforts and crowd rallies in swing states. On social media, they push back against criticism that Harris' background as a prosecutor or record on crime could work against Black voters. Harris will likely gain 85% to 90% of the Black vote. Middle-class Black groups will be pushing turnout in crucial cities and suburbs of swing states.
• Tuned-out voters: When Harris said twice during her CNN interview that she wanted to "turn the page" on the Trump era, she was talking to these voters — low-propensity or low-information voters, as pollsters call 'em. These are Americans who've been exhausted by the country's increasingly poisonous politics since President Obama was re-elected.

Six groups Trump is targeting:

• The "bro vote": In one of the most gendered elections ever, Trump is breaking new ground with his outreach to non-traditional media tailored to Gen Z men. Trump has appeared on massive platforms with creators like the Nelk Boys, Adin Ross, Logan Paul and comedian Theo Von. The addition of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the MAGA roster could bolster Trump's appeal with very online, politically disaffected young men.
• Men who didn't go to college: This group ("non-college men" to pollsters) was a crucial part of Trump's victory in 2016. Trump's research showed he'd lost some of this group in 2020 when he was running against "Scranton Joe." Now, these voters are back to Trump. Harris hopes Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — "Coach," as her campaign plays up his football past — will help limit the damage.

• Black men: Harris has reclaimed some of the support Biden was bleeding from this core Democratic constituency, but Trump isn't giving up on courting Black men. The former president's gains since 2020 have been fueled by economic dissatisfaction. But his tactics have often leaned into racial stereotyping — insisting, for example, that his mug shot would make him more popular with Black voters.
• Hispanic men: Gaps in college education are driving a partisan split between Latino men and women. Trump was backed by 31% of Latino men in 2020, a jump of roughly 7 points from 2016. Hispanic ranchers in rural New Mexico and Latino grape pickers in Central California who feel ignored by Democrats are showing signs of shifting to the GOP. This voting bloc remains heavily Democratic. But Democrats' focus on issues like EVs, student loan forgiveness and the economy isn't resonating with some.
• Religious Latinos: In swing state Arizona, Hispanic Catholics (12%) today make up a bigger percentage than white evangelicals (10%). In Pennsylvania, Latino evangelicals make up a growing segment of voters in crucial bellwether counties. Both blocs could swing tight races, but currently, Latino evangelicals are split over Trump because of his rhetoric against immigrants, though some side with the GOP over LGBTQ+ rights.
• National security moms: GOP ads focused on crime, safety and the border are aimed at these women, who go beyond the conservative base. Many are suburbanites who otherwise might trend Harris.

Wild card: Each side is scrambling to identify and court first-time voters. Harris' jump in support among young adults who weren't excited about voting for Biden could be a big factor.

The bottom line: If you fit one of these descriptions and live in a swing state, congratulations! Prepare to be bombarded.

• Axios' Zachary Basu, Russell Contreras and Astrid Galván contributed reporting.