American intelligence agencies underestimated Kim Jong-un, the New York Times reports. When President Trump took office, intelligence officials predicted North Korea would not build a missile capable of reaching the U.S. until 2020 or 2022, but, in 2017, the regime tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile that could travel as far as Washington, D.C.
The bottom line: Using "a decades-old Soviet engine design," North Korea has expanded its nuclear capabilites years ahead of schedule and, in September, tested a bomb that was roughly 17 times stronger than the nuclear bomb that decimated Hiroshima in 1945.
Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a military mobilization meeting on Wednesday — the first ever for the entire Chinese armed forces. PRC media reports showed Xi in battle dress addressing the troops, looking at a tank, and peering through the sights of an automatic weapon.
Quick take: Xi has undertaken the most ambitious reform of the military in decades, and in spite of resistance at the start, he looks to have largely won the political battles over those reforms.
Kim Jong-un's New Year's speech, in which he boasted about a nuclear launch button on his desk, mixed bluster toward the U.S. with overtures to South Korea. While threatening an attack, he also offered enticements around inter-Korean talks, aiming to split Seoul off from its allies on sanctions by exploiting South Korean President Moon Jae-in's anxieties around next month's winter Olympics in Pyeongchang.
In the past, Pyongyang's pattern has been to escalate tensions, offer minor conciliations, collect concessions, and repeat the process. The key to breaking this unproductive cycle and compelling North Korea into credible negotiations over its nuclear program — the purpose of the sanctions — is unity among allies. South Korea certainly has unique stakes, but engagement will not end well if Seoul parts company with Washington and Tokyo.
Given North Korea's aggressive posture, a military response can't be ruled out, which is why the U.S. has kept 28,000 troops on the Korean Peninsula. Nevertheless, the high costs of military action make diplomacy the preferred route.
The bottom line: Testing Kim's willingness to engage with the South and forego provocations through the Olympics makes sense, but bribing Pyongyang in exchange for "good" behavior would be a mistake.
Daniel Russel is the diplomat in residence at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
