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National

2028

Axios 2028

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Moderate Democrats are on a mission to stop the next Bernie Sanders, starting with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Third Way, an influential center-left group, is bringing together hundreds of elected officials, party leaders and operatives here this weekend to build a case for nominating a middle-of-the-road Democrat — not a liberal — for president in 2028.

Why it matters: Centrist Democrats' efforts to shape the next election have taken on a new urgency as liberals such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and others have unexpectedly won races.

It's a reflection of the deep divisions within the party over how to take on President Trump's MAGA Republicans.

What they're saying: Third Way president Jon Cowan kicked off the event Sunday by taking shots at Ocasio-Cortez, the most high-profile democratic socialist eyeing a White House run.

In a speech at the grand, 12-story Francis Marion Hotel, Cowan said that since 2018 political groups tied to AOC and Sanders "have flipped zero" battleground House seats, making it a risk for the party to pick a liberal as its standard-bearer.

A spokesperson for Justice Democrats, the group that helped elect AOC, shot back that its focus is challenging "corporate Dems in deep-blue seats," not flipping GOP seats.

Cowan also blasted other liberal heroes, slamming "out-of-touch teachers' unions," criticizing "the language police," and telling Democrats to "stop peddling the idea that there are tens of millions of nonvoters just waiting to be mobilized by a left-wing siren song. It is delusional and widely debunked."

Cowan also said exit polls showed former Vice President Harris was seen by voters as "more extreme" than Trump in 2024.

Between the lines: Third Way, one of the chief opponents of Sanders' 2016 and 2020 presidential bids, isn't alone: Since President Trump won a second term, new center-left groups such as Searchlight Institute, Majority Democrats and Next American Era have urged the party to move to the middle.

The other side: Liberals rolled their eyes at the centrist gathering, saying that the Democratic establishment's favored nominees have lost to Trump twice. They think a muscular populist vision will inspire people to come to the polls.

"If I were at the event with these guys, I would want to stand up and say, 'Okay, hear what you're saying. But my question is, what's your prescription for winning back working-class voters?' " said Mark Longabaugh, a top adviser to Sanders' 2016 campaign.

"'What is your message to them? That we're moderate? That's a message?'"

The intrigue: Speakers at Third Way's "Winning the Middle" event, which continues Monday, were scheduled to include Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina, political commentator Matt Yglesias, Massachusetts Rep. Jake Auchincloss and San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins.

Among those who RSVP'd to attend: Officials at Google, Meta and General Motors; Biden White House alumni; an aide at the secretive super PAC Future Forward, and several Democratic leaders from states that traditionally have held early presidential primaries.

Reality check: More than any retreat, this year's midterm elections will test which Democratic candidates are best-equipped to flip red seats — and have an outsized impact on the 2028 debate.

Moderate and liberal Democrats are vying in primaries to take on Republicans in key races in Maine, Michigan and elsewhere.

Centrist Dems launch '28 mission: Stop AOC

It's a reflection of the deep divisions within the party over how to take on Trump's MAGA Republicans.

Donald Trump

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

For many far-left Democrats, it's AOC or bust in 2028.

Left-wing Democrats are quietly escalating efforts to persuade New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for president. One big reason: They see no clear alternative. Bernie Sanders (84) is too old — and no other Sanders-like pol with national punch is emerging.

Driving the news: Allies tell Axios the pitch to Ocasio-Cortez and her team is essentially this:

She'd enter the race polling in the top five of potential Democratic contenders, and as the liberal heir to Sanders.

Her high profile would allow her to raise $100 million online without a single in-person fundraiser.

There's a window of opportunity for a left-wing nominee that may not come again for a generation. Democratic-socialist and liberal victories in New York City and elsewhere — with potentially more this fall — have changed the political playing field.

Her candidacy would force Democrats to debate issues she and Sanders care about, such as Medicare for All and Gaza.

If her candidacy faltered, she could drop out early and still make a run for Senate in 2028, for the seat now occupied by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

"I think she'll plan to run for both and end up a senator," a plugged-in liberal strategist said.

The intrigue: AOC's team has been working over the past year to give her the option of running for president or Senate in 2028.

At the end of 2025, she still had more than $13 million in a campaign account after spending several million on building up her already formidable grassroots fundraising machine with social media advertising and list-building, according to campaign finance records.

Ocasio-Cortez privately has been asking for frequent updates on liberal candidates running in this year's midterms. Contests such as the Senate races in Maine and Michigan could validate the theory that voters are hungry for a left-wing outsider in 2028.

Former Sanders campaign manager Faiz Shakir — an outside adviser to Ocasio-Cortez — also has been building up liberal media that could be useful in a presidential run, along with Sanders' political organization.

Ari Rabin-Havt, a deputy campaign manager for Sanders in 2020, told Axios that AOC "has earned her place as the top dog" among liberals, "and if she does run, she obviously becomes the biggest star and sucks up the oxygen in that lane."

Ocasio-Cortez also is trying to further raise her profile on the national and international stage.

She drew massive crowds across the country with Sanders in early 2025 as part of his "Fight Oligarchy" tour, and tried to boost her foreign policy credentials with a much-hyped trip to the Munich Security Conference.

Her appearance there last month was marred by some halting, inexact answers that made some Democrats privately say she isn't ready for prime time.

Reality check: Ocasio-Cortez is doing far less campaign infrastructure-building and making fewer national media appearances than other possible presidential candidates.

She's privately expressed ambivalence about running for president, and some close supporters think she should wait because she's young (36) and has time.

Sanders has praised Ocasio-Cortez, but he's avoided endorsing anyone as a successor.

People close to her believe she would like another candidate to be the left-wing's standard-bearer in 2028.

A spokesperson for Ocasio-Cortez declined to comment.

Between the lines: With AOC's future uncertain, other potential presidential candidates are trying to position themselves in the same lane.

Rep. Ro Khanna, a co-chair of Sanders' 2020 campaign who also has joined the senator's "Fight Oligarchy" tour, has longtime Sanders operatives such as Jeff Weaver and Mark Longabaugh advising him.

Khanna has also been a ubiquitous presence on old and new media, and has been a leader in the effort to release the Epstein files. 

"You have to give Ro credit: He's worked his ass off to put himself in this position and has done what's most comparable to Bernie pre-Bernie 2016," Rabin-Havt said.

Other liberals have touted Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who has been a pointed critic of Israel and President Trump's immigration policy, as a 2028 contender.

Some on the left are still looking and musing about outsiders such as autoworker union president Shawn Fain or some of the liberals running for Senate this year.

Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin, who previously led the liberal caucus in the House and has been talking up Van Hollen, told Axios: "I don't think there's a natural candidate on the liberal side right now, and I think he could not only fill that gap but also bridge it with other parts of the Democratic Party." 

It's AOC or bust for far-left Democrats in 2028

Far-left Democrats see no clear alternative to carry forward Bernie Sanders' wing of the party.

Photo illustration of US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders with the White House in the background

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Saul Loeb/AFP and Kent Nishimura via Getty Images

Elections 2024

Kamala Harris

President Trump presented on Sunday his case for going to war with Iran and toppling the current regime — and warned more U.S. soldiers will likely die before the operation ends.

Why it matters: Trump is publicly bracing the country for a sustained, costly military campaign, a sign America has entered an open-ended war with a rising human cost.

Trump touted the elimination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and framed the war as the only way to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed terrorist state.

Driving the news: Trump spoke hours after the U.S. military announced three U.S. service members were killed and five wounded in the fighting. 

"Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends," the president said in a six-minute video posted to Truth Social. "… [W]e'll do everything possible where that won't be the case, but America will avenge their deaths and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against, basically, civilization." 

What he's saying: Trump framed the war as a generational necessity, arguing Iran's nuclear ambitions, its financing of terrorist groups and its threats against Israel left the U.S. no choice.

A nuclear-armed Iran "would be a dire threat to every American," he said.

"These actions are right, and they are necessary to ensure that Americans will never have to face a radical, bloodthirsty terrorist regime armed with nuclear weapons," he said. "These intolerable threats will not continue any longer."

Trump pushed back on the critics of the war, saying the strikes were "not merely to ensure security for our own time and place, but for our children and their children."

State of play: Trump presented Israel's killing of Khamenei as the the most important achievement of the war so far. 

He said Khamenei "had the blood of hundreds and even thousands of Americans on his hands" and was responsible for killing of innocent people around the world.

"Last night, all over Iran, the voices of the Iranian people could be heard cheering and celebrating in the streets when his death was announced," Trump said.  

Trump claimed thousands of Iranian military officers want to surrender and receive immunity. "They're calling by the thousands," he said.

What to watch: The president said combat operations will continue "until all of our objectives are achieved."

"They could have done something two weeks ago, but they just couldn't get there," he said referring to the failed U.S.–Iran talks that ended Thursday with no deal.  

What's next: Trump called on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian military and the Iranian police to lay down their arms and receive full immunity "or face certain death. It will be certain. Death won't be pretty." 

He called on Iranians "to seize this moment, to be brave, be bold, be heroic, and take back your country." 

Trump said he fulfilled his promise he made to Iranian protesters in January that "help is on the way."

"America is with you. The rest will be up to you, but we'll be there to help," he said. 

Go deeper: Oil producers vow to boost output as world gauges Iran fallout

Oil producers vow to boost output as world gauges Iran fallout

Trump warns more U.S. troops will "likely" die in Iran attacks

Three U.S. service members have already been killed.

Iran

Tariffs

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

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Axios Generate

A coalition of OPEC, Russia and allied oil-producing nations agreed Sunday to boost output by a larger-than-expected amount in a move that could help offset any shortfall from Iran amid this weekend's strikes.

Why it matters: The OPEC+ boost of 206,000 barrels per day is an early sign of how producers and companies will respond to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran as the world ponders the effect on oil prices.

Producers and companies also are anxiously watching the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and whether Iranian attacks damage oil infrastructure in Middle Eastern countries.

The big picture: The OPEC+ group "stopped short of a more forceful increase, underscoring the tightrope it is walking between responding to near-term geopolitical risk and avoiding oversupply later this year," Jorge Leon, a top analyst with research and consulting firm Rystad Energy, said in a note.

Oil prices are likely to surge when Asian markets open Sunday evening — and the moves will eventually affect U.S. gasoline prices.

The spike's size will signal how traders are weighing risks of supply disruption in the region that's crucial to the world's oil market of 100 million barrels per day.

The intrigue: It's impossible to know with any confidence what all this means for U.S. gasoline prices, which are a wild card in the midterm elections.

It obviously all depends on the scope and duration of the conflict. But petroleum market analyst Patrick De Haan is out with a helpful new post  gaming out some possibilities.

Gasoline prices, now averaging close to $3 per gallon, were already heading to $3.10–$3.15 in the next 1-2 weeks and $3.20-$3.25 in the next two to three weeks even without "new structural shocks," wrote De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the market-tracking firm GasBuddy.

Some states could see a larger jump this week, depending on the size of the expected crude price spike.

Friction point: Tankers and cargo ships are already reportedly avoiding the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway off Iran that handles a whopping one-fourth of global seaborne oil trade.

Commercial shipping around the strait has been disrupted with many ships anchored at sea, according to open-source ship tracking data. But a U.S. defense official said Sunday that some ships were still flowing through the strait.

What they're saying: The avoidance "appears to be driven by heightened tensions and precautionary decisions by ship operators and insurers rather than a confirmed physical blockade by Iran," Rystad's Leon said.

"[F]rom a market perspective, however, the distinction is secondary," Leon adds.

Some alternative infrastructure can help bypass the waterway, but "the net impact remains an effective loss of 8-10 million [barrels per day] of crude oil supply."

What we're watching: There could be other potential risks to supply in the fluid conflict — especially oil infrastructure in other Gulf states as Iran retaliates.

Successful strikes by Iran or its proxies against oil production, processing or export facilities —  especially in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer — would expand whatever price increases are looming.

Still, Eurasia Group analysts caution in a note that "major or lasting disruptions are unlikely given the hardened defenses surrounding key facilities."

Zoom out: The conflict is unfolding against a backdrop of ample global oil production and comparatively modest demand growth.

The boost is an early sign of how producers and companies will respond to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Centrist Dems launch '28 mission: Stop AOC

It's AOC or bust for far-left Democrats in 2028

Trump warns more U.S. troops will "likely" die in Iran attacks

Oil producers vow to boost output as world gauges Iran fallout

FBI investigating Austin mass shooting as potential terrorism

Trump says U.S. destroyed 9 Iranian warships

3 U.S. service members killed in Iran conflict

Pope Leo condemns "spiral of violence" in Iran strikes

Two months, two tracks: How Trump chose war with Iran

Iranian state media confirms Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead