Oil producers vow to boost output as world gauges Iran fallout

• Producers and companies also are anxiously watching the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and whether Iranian attacks damage oil infrastructure in Middle Eastern countries.

The big picture: The OPEC+ group "stopped short of a more forceful increase, underscoring the tightrope it is walking between responding to near-term geopolitical risk and avoiding oversupply later this year," Jorge Leon, a top analyst with research and consulting firm Rystad Energy, said in a note.

• Oil prices are likely to surge when Asian markets open Sunday evening — and the moves will eventually affect U.S. gasoline prices.
• The spike's size will signal how traders are weighing risks of supply disruption in the region that's crucial to the world's oil market of 100 million barrels per day.

The intrigue: It's impossible to know with any confidence what all this means for U.S. gasoline prices, which are a wild card in the midterm elections.

• It obviously all depends on the scope and duration of the conflict. But petroleum market analyst Patrick De Haan is out with a helpful new post gaming out some possibilities.
• Gasoline prices, now averaging close to $3 per gallon, were already heading to $3.10–$3.15 in the next 1-2 weeks and $3.20-$3.25 in the next two to three weeks even without "new structural shocks," wrote De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the market-tracking firm GasBuddy.
• Some states could see a larger jump this week, depending on the size of the expected crude price spike.

Friction point: Tankers and cargo ships are already reportedly avoiding the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway off Iran that handles a whopping one-fourth of global seaborne oil trade.

• Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera his country has no plans to close the strait, Bloomberg energy columnist Javier Blas said in an X post.

What they're saying: The avoidance "appears to be driven by heightened tensions and precautionary decisions by ship operators and insurers rather than a confirmed physical blockade by Iran," Rystad's Leon said.

• "[F]rom a market perspective, however, the distinction is secondary," Leon adds.
• Some alternative infrastructure can help bypass the waterway, but "the net impact remains an effective loss of 8-10 million [barrels per day] of crude oil supply."

What we're watching: There could be other potential risks to supply in the fluid conflict — especially oil infrastructure in other Gulf states as Iran retaliates.

• Successful strikes by Iran or its proxies against oil production, processing or export facilities — especially in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer — would expand whatever price increases are looming.

• Still, Eurasia Group analysts caution in a note that "major or lasting disruptions are unlikely given the hardened defenses surrounding key facilities."

Zoom out: The conflict is unfolding against a backdrop of ample global oil production and comparatively modest demand growth.

• The International Energy Agency, which helps coordinate governments' emergency oil stockpiles, is "actively monitoring events in the Middle East & the potential implications for global oil & gas markets and trade flows," executive director Fatih Birol posted on X this morning.
• "I am in contact with Ministers from major producers in the region & IEA governments about the situation," he said, while noting that "markets have been well supplied to date."

Yes, but: OPEC+ producers' flexibility to quickly make up for supply shortfalls is limited, RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a note.

• "[A]ll of this is taking place against a backdrop of minimal OPEC shock absorbers. In our view, every OPEC+ producer is essentially maxed out with the sole exception of Saudi Arabia," it states.
• It added that the use of barrels in storage is limited if seaways aren't accessible.
• The White House and Energy Department didn't immediately respond to a request for comment about whether they would consider using the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which currently holds more than 400 million barrels.

The bottom line: "Much can happen in the fog of war, and it is still early days," ClearView Energy Partners said in a note.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments from Rystad.