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National

2028

Axios 2028

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — not California Gov. Gavin Newsom — had the most effective ad in California's recent Proposition 50 campaign, according to private research by the Democratic Party's main super PAC, Future Forward.

Future Forward's report, obtained by Axios, found that Ocasio-Cortez's direct-to-camera ad did better than ads featuring Newsom — Prop 50's chief cheerleader — and former President Obama.

Why it matters: Ocasio-Cortez's team is positioning her to run for president or the U.S. Senate in 2028, and the report is a sign the progressive star could be a formidable opponent against Newsom, even in his home state, in a presidential primary.

California — which has been part of "Super Tuesday" in past primaries — has more Democratic delegates than any other state — about 10% of the party's total in 2024.

Zoom in: Future Forward tested voter responses to 16 different ads backing Prop 50, the measure voters approved to give Democrats up to five more U.S. House seats in California and counter Trump-ordered redistricting by Republicans in Texas.

"Of all the ads on our side, one stands out as the clear winner: AOC's spot that connects the perhaps-esoteric issue of redistricting to real-world impacts," Future Forward's Aaron Strauss wrote in an email to other Democratic operatives on Oct. 21.

"Donald Trump is redrawing election maps to force through a Congress that answers only to him," Ocasio-Cortez says in the spot, adding that stopping President Trump was crucial "for our health care, our paychecks and our freedoms. With Prop 50, we can stop him."

Strauss, who heads data and analysis at Future Forward, said Ocasio-Cortez's ad increased support for Prop 50 by 5.1 percentage points.

The next most successful ad, he wrote, was a direct-to-camera appeal by Obama, which raised support for Prop 50 by 4.3 points.

The rest of the ads tested included spots by Newsom, Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett, and California Sen. Alex Padilla.

The campaign supporting Prop 50 largely ran the Ocasio-Cortez ad, including one she recorded in Spanish, on digital rather than television. 

Newsom spokesperson Nathan Click told Axios: "The governor is very grateful to all of the leaders from across the party who came together to help Prop 50 pass by a 20-point margin." 

Future Forward declined to comment. A spokesperson for Ocasio-Cortez did not respond. 

Reality check:  Ocasio-Cortez's ad could have been more about the message than the messenger. 

As Strauss wrote in his missive: "The most persuasive ads connect politics to voters' daily lives."

Go deeper: Sign up for the Axios 2028 newsletter

about 10% of the total delegates in 2024.

Scoop: AOC's ad outscores Newsom's in California

The report is a sign the progressive star could be a formidable opponent against Newsom — even in his home state — in a presidential primary.

Photo illustration of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on an old-fashioned tv screen. 

Photo illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Politics & Policy

New York Times columnist Ezra Klein isn't content with opining about the Democratic Party — he's positioned himself as a powerbroker inside of it.

Why it matters: Klein's columnist-turned-operative role is raising concerns inside the Times and the Democratic Party, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Through his columns, hit podcast, private briefings with Democratic lawmakers and his bestselling book "Abundance" with reporter Derek Thompson, Klein has shaped the party's strategies and policies in President Trump's second term.

Driving the news: Klein has spoken privately this year to potential 2028 candidates such as former Vice President Harris, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, people familiar with the conversations told Axios.

He's also spoken with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on the sidelines of public events, and their teams have been discussing Shapiro appearing on Klein's podcast.

When Newsom signed a California deregulation law aimed at making it easier to build housing, he posted on X: "We're urgently embracing an abundance agenda" — a reference to Klein's book that argues Democrats need to back pro-growth policies.

Klein's column in early September urging Democratic senators to shut down the government to confront Trump's expansion of executive power was influential in the senators doing just that for an unprecedented 43 days, according to Senate Democratic officials.

"Should Senate Democrats partner with Senate Republicans to fund this government? I don't see how they can," Klein wrote — words that spread throughout Senate offices.

After some moderate Senate Democrats said last weekend that they were going to vote to end the shutdown, Klein urged Democrats to keep fighting: "If I were in the Senate, I wouldn't vote for this compromise."

The intrigue: Klein also privately briefed Senate Democrats at their summer retreat.

Klein's role in the partisan event raised internal concerns at the Times, people familiar with the situation told Axios. The Times typically has frowned on such actions by its journalists, even opinion columnists.

A Times spokesperson said Klein attended the event to discuss his book and told his editor in advance.

Jill Abramson, the paper's former executive editor, told Axios she doesn't see a conflict. 

"It's true that this is a blurry line between journalism and politics and governing. But he's in the opinion category and not covering news — that's a little blurry itself."

"I'm a stickler for staying in your lane," she added. "I think his lane is the Ezra-lane and I don't see him crossing a line. I'm assuming the New York Times is cool with it."

Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoades Ha said: "Ezra is a tremendous talent .... he talks to people across the ideological spectrum; it's essential for his reporting to have those conversations, and he approaches them as a journalist. All of this makes him an ideal opinion columnist and host."

Klein did not respond to a request for comment.

Klein's large audience and brand has endeared him to some of the Times leadership.

His columns consistently have some of the outlet's biggest online traffic, according to people who have seen internal numbers.

Deputy managing editor Sam Dolnick, an influential member of the Sulzberger family that owns the Times, has been privately promoting Klein inside the paper and to other media reporters over the past year, people familiar with the matter told Axios.

Klein also changed his appearance — working out and growing a beard — which he acknowledged recently "has changed my public image more than I would have thought."

What they're saying:  Some Democratic officials advising potential presidential candidates are worried about Klein's influence with party elites at a time when the party is trying to win back working-class votes, having suffered from being cast as too elite and coastal.

Klein isn't the person to guide Democrats out of the wilderness, they argue.

"You're telling me this man who sits in a f**king West Elm-decorated office is going to be the thought leader for Democrats?" one Democratic aide to a potential presidential candidate said.

How Ezra Klein's power play is guiding Democrats

The New York Times columnist, podcaster and author has helped shape the party's strategies and policies in President Trump's second term.

Photo illustration of Ezra Klein with the Democratic Party logo reflecting in his glasses

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Lloyd Bishop/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty Images

Kamala Harris

Federal Border Patrol agents arrested 81 people on day one of their Charlotte, North Carolina, crackdown that's prompted protests and left businesses shuttered. 

The big picture: Charlotte, in what federal officials are calling "Operation Charlotte's Web," is the latest city to be rocked by federal forces and a surge in immigrant arrests as advocates decry the administration's aggressive tactics.

Driving the news: The enhanced operation has caused "unnecessary fear and uncertainty," local officials said in a statement, pointing to operations in other cities that resulted in people without criminal records being detained and clashes between protesters and agents.

City leaders implored dissenters to speak out peacefully, saying, "We can stand up for what we believe in without resorting to violence."

Masked agents have been spotted throughout the city and its suburbs, per local reports, and have detained people along roads, in parking lots, outside restaurants and beyond. 

Catch up quick: The Department of Homeland Security said Saturday that it would be "surging" resources to target undocumented immigrants in North Carolina, and blaming "sanctuary politicians" for policies that allow "criminal illegal aliens" to remain in the state. 

Sanctuary cities and jurisdictions have been prime targets of the administration's immigration crackdown, which has put local officials in blue cities like Chicago and Los Angeles at odds with the federal government.

Mecklenburg County Sheriff Garry McFadden, who oversees the county that houses Charlotte, has sparred with ICE in the past, but last week he touted an improved relationship with federal partners.

Zoom in: Border Patrol Cmdr. Gregory Bovino, who is leading agents in Charlotte and has overseen operations in other cities, said CBP had a "record day" in response to a video shared of a man being detained in a shopping center.

"Massive numbers in Charlotte. Some good criminals also," he wrote Saturday. On Sunday, he said 81 people had been arrested in "about five hours" the day prior.

What they're saying: Immigrant advocacy group Siembra NC counted at least 36 different confirmed incidents, each involving up to six arrests, the group's spokesperson Emanuel Gomez-Gonzalez told Axios in an email.

"What Bovino's declaration obscures is that the target of CBP's operation in Charlotte— as has been the case with previous operations— has been workers," Gomez-Gonzalez said. 

"Workers putting up Christmas decorations in a homeowner's front yard. Picking up construction materials from hardware stores. Doing yard work at an east Charlotte church."

Friction point: Videos of arrests and groups of agents patrolling public spaces have begun flooding social media. 

The New York Times reported that a Hispanic U.S. citizen had his car window smashed by agents, who were caught on film detaining and handcuffing him. He was later let go. 

DHS said in a post to X that he was "erratic," "refused lawful commands," and had been trying to distract agents as cover for other migrants in the area. 

What's next: New Orleans is also bracing for the federal wave.

Asheville, North Carolina, Mayor Esther Manheimer said in a statement her city may also be targeted.  

"We believe every person, regardless of immigration status, should feel safe in the community they call home," Manheimer said.

Go deeper: Judge orders ICE to release 300+ detained immigrants

Judge orders ICE to release 300+ detained immigrants

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Border Patrol operation rocks Charlotte with dozens arrested

The operation has caused "unnecessary fear and uncertainty," local officials said in a statement.

A woman yells as she holds an American flag and a sign in the air that reads, "IMMIGRANTS MAKE CHARLOTTE GREAT."

Protesters gather at First Ward Park for the 'No Border Patrol In Charlotte' rally to raise their voices for the immigrant community in Charlotte, North Carolina, on November 15. Photo: Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images

Immigration

President Trump lambasted Indiana Republicans who resisted his pressure to enter the mid-decade redistricting war, saying any party member who votes against redistricting "should be PRIMARIED."

The big picture: Indiana marks the latest setback in Trump's drive to lock in a GOP House majority through mid-decade gerrymandering — part of his broader push to expand Republican power state by state.

Republicans have pushed through aggressive maps in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

Democrats benefited from a court-approved map in Utah and their own partisan redraw in California.

Indiana joins Kansas, Nebraska and New Hampshire, other Republican-led states that have resisted reopening their maps so far.

Driving the news: Trump called out two Indiana lawmakers — Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray and Sen. Greg Goode — as "RINO Senators," a favorite dig of his that means "Republican in name only." 

"Because of these two politically correct type 'gentlemen,' and a few others, they could be depriving Republicans of a Majority in the House, A VERY BIG DEAL!" the president wrote.

He also took aim at Indiana Gov. Mike Braun for "perhaps ... not working the way he should to get the necessary Votes." Trump claimed Braun "wouldn't be Governor without me (Not even close!)." 

Braun had called for a special session to pass a new map. But Bray said Friday that after "very serious and thoughtful consideration," the redistricting idea did not have enough support to move forward.

Threat level: Trump said Indiana lawmakers should "DO THEIR JOB, AND DO IT NOW" — and if they don't, he wrote, they should be booted out of office.

Seven of Indiana's nine U.S. House seats are held by Republicans. Trump wanted more.

A spokesperson for Goode said the senator "previously stated at a local listening session he hosted on Nov. 1 that he would not take a public stance unless and until he saw an officially introduced map and legislation on the floor of the State Senate."

Trump blasts Indiana Republicans who defied redistricting pressure

Indiana marks the latest setback in Trump's drive to lock in a GOP House majority.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Scoop: AOC's ad outscores Newsom's in California

How Ezra Klein's power play is guiding Democrats

Border Patrol operation rocks Charlotte with dozens arrested

Trump blasts Indiana Republicans who defied redistricting pressure

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