Scoop: AOC's ad outscores Newsom's in California
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — not California Gov. Gavin Newsom — had the most effective ad in California's recent Proposition 50 campaign, according to private research by the Democratic Party's main super PAC, Future Forward.
- Future Forward's report, obtained by Axios, found that Ocasio-Cortez's direct-to-camera ad did better than ads featuring Newsom — Prop 50's chief cheerleader — and former President Obama.
Why it matters: Ocasio-Cortez's team is positioning her to run for president or the U.S. Senate in 2028, and the report is a sign the progressive star could be a formidable opponent against Newsom, even in his home state, in a presidential primary.
- California — which has been part of "Super Tuesday" in past primaries — has more Democratic delegates than any other state — about 10% of the party's total in 2024.
Zoom in: Future Forward tested voter responses to 16 different ads backing Prop 50, the measure voters approved to give Democrats up to five more U.S. House seats in California and counter Trump-ordered redistricting by Republicans in Texas.
- "Of all the ads on our side, one stands out as the clear winner: AOC's spot that connects the perhaps-esoteric issue of redistricting to real-world impacts," Future Forward's Aaron Strauss wrote in an email to other Democratic operatives on Oct. 21.
- "Donald Trump is redrawing election maps to force through a Congress that answers only to him," Ocasio-Cortez says in the spot, adding that stopping President Trump was crucial "for our health care, our paychecks and our freedoms. With Prop 50, we can stop him."
Strauss, who heads data and analysis at Future Forward, said Ocasio-Cortez's ad increased support for Prop 50 by 5.1 percentage points.
- The next most successful ad, he wrote, was a direct-to-camera appeal by Obama, which raised support for Prop 50 by 4.3 points.
- The rest of the ads tested included spots by Newsom, Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett, and California Sen. Alex Padilla.
The campaign supporting Prop 50 largely ran the Ocasio-Cortez ad, including one she recorded in Spanish, on digital rather than television.
- Newsom spokesperson Nathan Click told Axios: "The governor is very grateful to all of the leaders from across the party who came together to help Prop 50 pass by a 20-point margin."
- Future Forward declined to comment. A spokesperson for Ocasio-Cortez did not respond.
Reality check: Ocasio-Cortez's ad could have been more about the message than the messenger.
- As Strauss wrote in his missive: "The most persuasive ads connect politics to voters' daily lives."
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