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National

The Trump administration is asking the public to trust its math on what it promised would be the largest mass deportation campaign in U.S. history. 

Why it matters: The Department of Homeland Security has used a highly unorthodox approach to reach its stunning figure of 2 million undocumented immigrants "removed or self-deported" since Inauguration Day.

"The numbers don't lie: 2 million illegal aliens have been removed or self-deported in just 250 days," DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a Sept. 23 press release.

80% of that total (1.6 million) is on the "self-deported" side, based on government survey data that experts warn should be viewed with skepticism. 

Zoom in: "Remember what matters are ICE removals and deportations, way more than these other funny numbers," said Trump supporter Mike Howell, who is president of the Oversight Project, formerly part of the Heritage Foundation.

"I see the 1.6 million as a pretty shaky estimate, and one that could be explained away by fewer immigrants feeling comfortable answering a government survey," said Julia Gelatt of the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan, migration-focused think tank.

Between the lines: DHS cites an analysis of government survey data, known as the Current Population Survey (CPS), which  the Census Bureau says shouldn't be used to determine the size of the foreign-born population as it's based on a sample size of roughly 60,000 households.

The Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative think-tank that published the analysis in August, noted "important caveats" — including an expected reluctance for immigrants to respond to the survey or admit they're foreign-born. It also noted a lack of other data from the administration to support the estimate.

The CIS authors called the numbers "preliminary," but co-author Steven Camarota said that he thinks, at a minimum, it's accurately showing a declining trend in the population.

"We can't say 100% but boy, it's the best data we have, and I think it's telling us that the decline is very large and real," Caramota said.

Zoom out: DHS has stopped regularly publishing statistics on its website that previous administrations used to share data on deportations.

Typically deportations are measured by the number of "removals" by ICE, which manages the immigrant detention system and facilitates travel, and faster "returns" at the border by Customs and Border Protection.

In fiscal 2024, DHS carried out almost 330,000 removals and 447,600 returns, according to the DHS statistics database. But the number of attempted border crossings was much higher in 2024 than in recent months, juicing the number of returns.

Voluntary survey data on the foreign-born population isn't usually a metric for deportations, and isn't included in the past statistics database.

Since Trump took office, DHS says it's deported 400,000 people. The agency hasn't shared specifically how many are removals and border returns. 

Attempted border crossings have plummeted, reducing the number of returns by CBP. 

But ICE officers have drastically increased the immigrant detention population — whose deportations are counted as "removals" — through more enforcement across the country.

The agency will soon provide its end-of-year report to Congress with concrete immigration enforcement data through September of 2025 — including roughly the last four months of Biden's term and the start of Trump's.

The intrigue: If you use the Trump administration's "self-deportation" app, CBP Home, the government pays for your travel and gives you $1,000 when you arrive at your destination country. 

McLaughlin said most of the 1.6 million voluntary departures are not using the app, but declined to say how many people have used it.

Axios previously reported that the first "self-deportation" flight using the app transported 65 people.

The bottom line: Howell, who supports Trump's agenda, questions the efficacy of the push for self-deportation with the CBP Home app.

"We're supposed to suspend the laws of economics. All these people who are poor and coming here for economic purposes, upon leaving don't take a free $1,000," he said.

Go deeper: Trump's mass deportation plan hits its own wall

Trump administration's "self-deportation" app

Inside Trump's "funny numbers" on mass deportations

The Department of Homeland Security has used a highly unorthodox approach.

Illustration of an abacus  featuring barbed wire 

Donald Trump

Immigration

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

President Trump said he told Ukrainian president Zelensky during their call on Sunday that he might give Russian President Putin a new ultimatum to resume serious peace talks or else the U.S. will provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles.  

Why it matters: Tomahawks would give Ukraine the ability to strike deep inside Russia — including Moscow — and the Ukrainians argue they would help force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.

Trump spoke on Saturday and again on Sunday with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky and they discussed the possibility of Ukraine obtaining Tomahawk long-range missiles, according to two sources with knowledge.

The sources said no final decision has been made, but the parties made progress in their negotiations on this issue.

What he's saying: Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on his way to the Middle East on Sunday that he talked with Zelensky about the weapons Ukraine needs, like Patriots air defense systems and long-range Tomahawk missiles.  

"I might have to speak to Russia about Tomahawks. Do they want to have Tomahawks going in their direction? I don't think so. I told that to President Zelensky, because Tomahawks are a new step of aggression. I might talk to [Putin]," Trump said. 

"I might say, 'Look, if this war is not gonna get settled I may send them Tomahawks.' Russia doesn't need that. I think it is appropriate to bring that up."

Driving the news: Saturday's call lasted around 30 minutes, one source said. Zelensky described it in a statement as "very positive and productive."

Zelensky congratulated Trump on the Gaza peace deal and said if that war could be ended "then surely other wars can be stopped as well, including the Russian war."

"I informed President Trump about Russia's attacks on our energy system — and I appreciate his willingness to support us. We discussed opportunities to bolster our air defense, as well as concrete agreements that we are working on to ensure this," Zelensky wrote.

"There are good options and solid ideas on how to truly strengthen us. There needs to be readiness on the Russian side to engage in real diplomacy—this can be achieved through strength."

A White House official confirmed the call took place.  

The latest: On Sunday, Trump and Zelensky spoke again for 40 minutes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials were also on the line, two sources with knowledge of the call said. 

During the call, Trump discussed with Zelensky in detail Ukraine's weapons supply status, the situation of its energy sector ahead of winter and its air defense arsenal, especially Patriot systems. 

"Trump really got into the weeds and he is very helpful," one source said.   

The two sources said Trump and Zelensky continued their discussion about the parameters for the selling of Tomahawk long range missiles to NATO countries who will supply them to Ukraine, how many are needed and how these missiles would be used. 

"We covered all the aspects of the situation: defense of life in our country, strengthening our capabilities – in air defense, resilience, and long-range capabilities. We also discussed many details related to the energy sector. President Trump is well informed about everything that is happening", Zelensky wrote on X.

State of play: Trump said Monday that he has "sort of made a decision" about selling long-range Tomahawk missiles to NATO countries in order for them to be supplied to Ukraine.

Trump said he wants to know what the Ukrainians plan to do with the missiles before he supplies them.

Zelensky asked Trump for Tomahawks during their meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last month. He told Axios that Ukraine might not even need to use them, because simply having them could be enough to force Putin to negotiate.

The U.S.-made cruise missiles have a much longer range than the missiles Ukraine has received thus far, and are better able to strike hard targets like arms depots than the drones Ukraine currently uses for long-range strikes.

The other side: Russian President Putin said on Sunday that the supply of Tomahawks to Ukraine would be a "completely new, qualitatively new stage of escalation."

What to watch: A senior Ukrainian delegation headed by Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak and Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko is expected to arrive in Washington on Tuesday to discuss security cooperation, the Tomahawk missiles and sanctions against Russia, Ukrainian officials say. 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment from President Trump and confirmation from a White House official.

Trump says he may tell Putin to settle war or he'll give Ukraine Tomahawks

Putin said supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine would be a "completely new, qualitatively new stage of escalation."

President Trump, wearing a navy jacket with a US flag pin, white shirt and red tie, carries a black umbrella as he speaks to the press before boarding Air Force One for a trip to the Middle East on October 12, 2025 at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. 

President Trump speaks to the press before boarding Air Force One for a trip to the Middle East on October 12, 2025 at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Russia

Ukraine

When President Trump announced a new deal Friday to lower prescription drug costs, it was the clearest sign yet that he'd paused his commerce secretary's push to slap 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals that aren't manufactured in the U.S.

Why it matters: Prescription drug policy and tariffs are big priorities of Trump's administration. But after the two issues collided in a conflicting series of White House messages recently, Trump set aside the tariffs idea, which could have made drugs more expensive for many Americans.

"Affordability is the issue. The president gets that," an adviser told Axios.

But the road to that decision was rocky, and showed how Trump's uneven management style — particularly surrounding tariffs — shadows a White House in which policies can be made on the fly, change suddenly at the president's whim, and then be fine-tuned as conflicts are resolved in real time.

Trump Cabinet secretaries sometimes operate with such independence that they encroach on each other's turf.

In this case, it was Commerce Secretary (and tariffs cheerleader) Howard Lutnick on one side initially, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the other.

Kennedy's department has been negotiating with drug companies as part of Trump's "most favored nation" prescription drug plan to lower drug costs for Americans.

Behind the scenes: Within the White House, the conflict came to a head on Sept. 25, during a going-away party for departing senior adviser Taylor Budowich.

About the same time that evening, Lutnick was in the Oval Office after a previously scheduled meeting about tariffs on heavy trucks and furniture. 

Trump and Lutnick then began talking about pharmaceuticals tariffs, a source said. And at 7:24 p.m., Trump posted that he'd impose the 100% tariff on prescription drugs produced outside the country.

The fallout: Trump's post caught everyone off guard: Kennedy, Medicare and Medicaid Administrator Mehmet Oz, senior White House officials and drug companies negotiating with them. None had been consulted about the announcement.

It prompted White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles to have a one-on-one meeting with Lutnick to convey their concerns.

Wiles — who has tried to prevent the chaos and drama that defined Trump's White House in his first term — reiterated to senior officials that they must work within established processes. 

"Susie just had enough," a Trump adviser familiar with the discussion told Axios. "There's a process for 'most favored nations' and there's a schedule and there's a plan." 

"Next thing you know, Lutnick just comes in and doesn't tell anyone this, and Kennedy and Oz see the [Truth Social] post and were like, 'What the f**k?' So Susie had to un-f**k it."

The message was received. Five days after the going-away party, Lutnick joined Trump at a news conference to announce a deal with Pfizer in which the commerce secretary made clear that the tariff plan was paused.

"While we're negotiating with these companies, we're going to let them play out and finish these negotiations, because they are the most important thing to the American people," Lutnick said in response to a reporter's question.

"We are standing by, helping and working with them," Lutnick said, deferring to the "HHS team" with praise: "We are on their side, helping them."

On Friday, Lutnick joined Kennedy in signing the paperwork for a new deal with AstraZeneca, a Britain-based pharmaceutical company that has agreed to build a plant near Charlottesville, Va.

Kennedy praised Lutnick for being "key to the negotiations," as did the White House in an official statement crediting the "impactful" secretary as a crucial member of Trump's trade and economic team who helped secure the deals with the pharmaceutical companies.

Trump also said tariffs were a "big reason" pharmaceutical companies were coming to the table, although the AstraZeneca agreement actual predated Trump's threat of 100% tariffs last month.

Zoom in: Trump's "most favored nation" pharmaceutical plan seeks to force companies to sell prescriptions to U.S. customers at the same price they'd charge people in other countries, where drugs often are cheaper.

In some cases, it hasn't lowered U.S. drug prices but has led pharmaceutical companies to hike costs for consumers abroad. 

The intrigue: Tariffs aside, Lutnick got crosswise with senior aides recently when he told an interviewer about his interactions with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, whom he called "the greatest blackmailer ever."

The message was at odds with the White House's efforts to distance Trump and his team from Epstein.

Reality check: Lutnick is longtime friend of Trump's and sources say he's still valued by the president.

Some see a silver lining in the tariff threat Trump issued at Lutnick's urging because it "got everyone's attention and probably let the other pharmaceutical companies know we mean business," another administration official said.

"It's fair to say Lutnick got over his skis," the official said. "But in the end, it didn't have a negative material effect on anything except for a few annoyed people."

Trump's Rx for confusion: How a push for tariffs complicated his pharma talks

The president's road to settling on a plan to lower prescription drug costs was rocky.

Photo illustration of President Trump and  Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in front of a prescription pad and line chart

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Jordan Pettitt - WPA Pool and Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images

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Vice President JD Vance defended the Department of Justice's recent indictment decisions, pushing back against questioning that President Trump is pressuring the federal agency to prosecute his political enemies. 

The big picture: Trump ignited speculation last month after a Truth Social post urged Attorney General Pam Bondi to take action against New York Attorney General Letitia James, former FBI Director James Comey and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). 

James and Comey have both since been indicted on federal charges, raising concerns among some Democrats that they could be next. 

Vance: DOJ doesn't prosecute based on Trump's opinions

"The president is allowed to have opinions about the law enforcement of the federal government," Vance said.

Axios

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Inside Trump's "funny numbers" on mass deportations

Trump says he may tell Putin to settle war or he'll give Ukraine Tomahawks

Trump's Rx for confusion: How a push for tariffs complicated his pharma talks

Vance: DOJ doesn't prosecute based on Trump's opinions

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