Inside Trump's "funny numbers" on mass deportations

• "The numbers don't lie: 2 million illegal aliens have been removed or self-deported in just 250 days," DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a Sept. 23 press release.
• 80% of that total (1.6 million) is on the "self-deported" side, based on government survey data that experts warn should be viewed with skepticism.

Zoom in: "Remember what matters are ICE removals and deportations, way more than these other funny numbers," said Trump supporter Mike Howell, who is president of the Oversight Project, formerly part of the Heritage Foundation.

• "I see the 1.6 million as a pretty shaky estimate, and one that could be explained away by fewer immigrants feeling comfortable answering a government survey," said Julia Gelatt of the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan, migration-focused think tank.

Between the lines: DHS cites an analysis of government survey data, known as the Current Population Survey (CPS), which the Census Bureau says shouldn't be used to determine the size of the foreign-born population as it's based on a sample size of roughly 60,000 households.

• The Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative think-tank that published the analysis in August, noted "important caveats" — including an expected reluctance for immigrants to respond to the survey or admit they're foreign-born. It also noted a lack of other data from the administration to support the estimate.
• The CIS authors called the numbers "preliminary," but co-author Steven Camarota said that he thinks, at a minimum, it's accurately showing a declining trend in the population.
• "We can't say 100% but boy, it's the best data we have, and I think it's telling us that the decline is very large and real," Caramota said.

Zoom out: DHS has stopped regularly publishing statistics on its website that previous administrations used to share data on deportations.

• Typically deportations are measured by the number of "removals" by ICE, which manages the immigrant detention system and facilitates travel, and faster "returns" at the border by Customs and Border Protection.
• In fiscal 2024, DHS carried out almost 330,000 removals and 447,600 returns, according to the DHS statistics database. But the number of attempted border crossings was much higher in 2024 than in recent months, juicing the number of returns.
• Voluntary survey data on the foreign-born population isn't usually a metric for deportations, and isn't included in the past statistics database.

Since Trump took office, DHS says it's deported 400,000 people. The agency hasn't shared specifically how many are removals and border returns.

• Attempted border crossings have plummeted, reducing the number of returns by CBP.
• But ICE officers have drastically increased the immigrant detention population — whose deportations are counted as "removals" — through more enforcement across the country.
• The agency will soon provide its end-of-year report to Congress with concrete immigration enforcement data through September of 2025 — including roughly the last four months of Biden's term and the start of Trump's.

The intrigue: If you use the Trump administration's "self-deportation" app, CBP Home, the government pays for your travel and gives you $1,000 when you arrive at your destination country.

• McLaughlin said most of the 1.6 million voluntary departures are not using the app, but declined to say how many people have used it.
• Axios previously reported that the first "self-deportation" flight using the app transported 65 people.

The bottom line: Howell, who supports Trump's agenda, questions the efficacy of the push for self-deportation with the CBP Home app.

• "We're supposed to suspend the laws of economics. All these people who are poor and coming here for economic purposes, upon leaving don't take a free $1,000," he said.

Go deeper: Trump's mass deportation plan hits its own wall