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Axios Finish Line

President Trump suddenly faces two global crises in North Korea and Iran — via Iraq — both with the real possibility of U.S. military action, if not war.

Why it matters: Trump has benefited from relative peace abroad and prosperity at home. But these twin challenges will truly test his diplomatic mix of bluster and buddying up to bad guys on the world stage. 

Iran-backed militiamen attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, Wednesday for the second day in a row. Marines guarding the embassy fired tear gas after the protesters lit a fire on the roof of the reception area, per AP.

On New Year's Eve, Trump ordered the deployment of 750 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division from Fort Bragg, N.C., to the Middle East. 3,000 more prepared for possible deployment in the next several days.

The protestors at the embassy later withdrew after orders from the militias, saying their message had been heard and that would now try to remove U.S. troops from Iraq by taking action in the country’s parliament.

"Little Rocket Man," North Korea's Kim Jong-un, is threatening to resume nuclear-missile testing, and said he'll soon introduce "a new strategic weapon" as the momentum of the past few years has stalled.

He declared in a New Year's speech that there "will never be denuclearization on the Korean peninsula" unless the U.S. drops its "hostile" policies, according to state media.

Don't forget: Russia said last week that it had deployed a hypersonic nuclear missile that President Vladimir Putin claims is in a class of its own, "fueling concerns of a new arms race with the U.S.," per Bloomberg.

Trump's twin war threats

They will truly test his diplomatic mix of bluster and buddying up to bad guys on the world stage.

Photos: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images; Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images; Leader.ir/Pool/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

World

Foreign policy

Politics

Donald Trump

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Wednesday that he will ask the Knesset, Israel's parliament, for immunity from his pending corruption charges.

Why it matters: The request by Netanyahu will likely delay any trial until after the country's elections in March — its third attempt to elect a stable majority government in a year. It essentially turns the March vote into a referendum on Netanyahu's political and legal future.

This is the first time Netanyahu had admitted that he wants to get parliamentary immunity to prevent his trial from starting. 

During the April 2019 election campaign, he denied on camera that he would try to promote any step to dodge a trial.

A majority of Israelis oppose granting Netanyahu immunity from the charges.

What he's saying: In a live primetime televised statement, Netanyahu said that the immunity would only be temporary and end once he finishes serving as a member of Knesset. 

He added that his comments on immunity before the April elections do not contradict his current request.

He once again claimed to be the victim of a witch hunt by the police, the state prosecutors and the bureaucracy — and previously called the charges an "attempted coup."

The other side: Netanyahu's political rival Benny Gantz told the press that the prime minister's immunity request endangers the principle that all are equal before the law and harms Israeli democracy. 

Gantz said Netanyahu was afraid to go to trial because he knows he is guilty, adding, "The choice in the upcoming elections is between an immunity government and a unity government — the kingdom of Netanyahu or the state of Israel."

The backdrop: Netanyahu was indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. 

The biggest case concerns his and his wife's relationship with Israel's leading telecommunications tycoon.

According to a police statement, Netanyahu, who at the time was also the telecom minister, allegedly gave Shaul Elovitz regulatory benefits worth hundreds of millions of dollars. In return, Netanyahu and his wife were allegedly allowed to demand positive coverage from one of Israel's major news websites, owned by Elovitz.

The prime minister alleged during his televised address today that is he being targeted in an rigged conspiracy. He has previously called the charges an "attempted coup" and a witch hunt.

What's next: Netanyahu immunity request starts a separate process inside the Knesset to vote on it in a special committee. Because the Knesset dissolved itself several weeks ago, there will have to be a special vote on forming such a committee. 

The speaker of the Knesset, Yuli Adelstein, is from Netanyahu's Likud party and can prevent the formation of the committee — a step which would further complicate the situation and could lead to a showdown in the Supreme Court.

If the committee is formed before the March elections, Netanyahu will be in a very tough spot because he will not be able to win an immunity vote in the current Knesset. Former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman announced today that his party, Israel Beitenu, will vote against giving Netanyahu immunity, making it clear that there is a majority for denying Netanyahu’s request.

Netanyahu is betting that the committee will not be formed before the March elections, allowing him to obtain a 61-member majority in the next Knesset that would vote in favor of his request.

Go deeper: International Criminal Court moves closer to investigation of Israel

Netanyahu asks Israeli parliament for immunity from corruption charges

It will likely delay any trial until after the country's elections in March.

Photo: Horacio Villalobos/Corbis via Getty Images

Benjamin Netanyahu

Israel

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Macro

Axios Macro

The S&P 500 has jumped 42% under President Trump — according to market data from the inauguration through 2019's final day of trading.

Why it matters: Trump uses the stock market's surge as a barometer of his presidency's success — one that, along with the 50-year low unemployment rate, he's sure to continue to tout as the 2020 election approaches — but the gains under him lag those under former Presidents Barack Obama, when stocks rebounded from the lows of the financial crisis, and George H.W. Bush.

Even if you count the 2016 post-election day market rally, the S&P's performance is still behind former President George H.W. Bush (measuring from election day through the end of the third year in office).

The bottom line: Only about half of Americans own stocks, "largely through retirement accounts," as the Washington Post notes, citing Federal Reserve data.  

Meanwhile, Trump's trade war, which added to stock market volatility, has cut into the financial well-being of America's farmers.

S&P 500 doubled its average return under past presidents during Trump's first 3 years

Trump's economic shield against impeachment

2019 stock market gains still leave Trump behind his predecessors

Business

Stock market

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

With a new year comes a new title for 2020 candidate Pete Buttigieg: former mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

The big picture: Buttigieg's term as mayor will end Wednesday as James Mueller, who served in Buttigieg's administration as chief of staff, is set to be sworn in. Buttigieg announced he would not run for re-election in 2018.

Mueller received Buttigieg's endorsement in February 2019. He won a crowded primary for the city's Democratic nomination in May.

Why it matters: The title change frees up Buttigieg's schedule at a vital time in the presidential race. While he hadn't been tied to his desk in South Bend, hometown commitments occasionally took him off the trail. Most notably, he paused campaigning in June after protests broke out in South Bend in the wake of an officer-involved shooting of a black man.

Buttigieg is now free to spend all his time in Iowa just weeks away from its first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 3. 

Buttigieg also holds an advantage over the five senators also competing for the nomination. The pending impeachment trial of President Trump would force Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet to remain in Washington.

Go deeper: Pete Buttigieg on the issues, in under 500 words

Buttigieg's hand-picked successor to take over as South Bend mayor

James Mueller is set to be sworn in on New Year's Day.

Pete Buttigieg

This is going to be a momentous presidential election year, as we face the very real possibility that an impeached president could be re-elected for the first time in U.S. history. But there will be plenty of other events that will matter in 2020, too.

Here’s what Axios’ newsletter authors and reporters will be watching — from the future of tech regulation to the impact climate change and job automation will have on all of our lives. (Sign up for their newsletters here.)

Politics: To what extent will President Trump and his campaign be able to convert a Republican-led Senate trial into enduring political advantage? By November 2020, will impeachment be just another forgotten series of Trump news cycles, or will it have given him additional tools to wield or weaknesses to manage? — Jonathan Swan

Business: People can't stop talking about it: Will 2020 finally be year the next recession hits? As Magic 8 Ball might say, "reply hazy." — Jennifer A. Kingson

Tech: On the policy front, we will be watching to see if the techlash-related hand wringing actually leads to greater regulation or antitrust enforcement. On the pure tech front, 2020 will be a little early to see truly consumer-ready AR glasses — but expect to see more experimentation, both in smartphones and beyond. — Ina Fried

Media: How will big tech companies police their systems for malicious content and political manipulation ahead of the 2020 election? — Sara Fischer

Health care: Congress punted surprise medical bill and prescription drug legislation last month, saying that it can be addressed this year — giving the health care industry more time to lobby against the measures. And on the campaign trail, moderates will keep duking it out against progressives over whether a public option or Medicare for All is the best vision for the future. — Caitlin Owens

Energy: I’ll be keeping an eye out for whether the world’s biggest oil companies, under pressure from advocates, will make more concrete and deeper climate commitments. — Ben Geman

World: Will the U.S. and North Korea return to “fire and fury” after missing Pyongyang’s end-of-year deadline for a breakthrough in the nuclear talks? How will the U.S. election factor into that, as well as into the U.S.-Iran standoff? — Dave Lawler

China: 2020 is a make-or-break year for Huawei—and for U.S. attempts to keep it out of global 5G networks. Will Canada and European nations follow U.S. warnings and give 5G contracts elsewhere (or simply delay), or will the promise of cheap Chinese 5G prove too alluring to resist? — Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Future: I'm watching how robots and machines will continue to gnaw away at jobs. Experts predict that 2020 will be the year that the economy really starts to feel the impact of automation-fueled job losses. Look for these waves of disruption to hit the American heartland the hardest as big cities keep getting the bulk of new job creation. — Erica Pandey

Cities: The Census will be top of mind for city leaders to ensure residents are counted appropriately. In addition, the frequency of cybersecurity attacks targeting state and city governments will likely continue to increase, forcing more officials to make the hard choice between paying a ransom demanded by hackers or spending the millions it takes to rebuild systems. — Kim Hart

Transportation: Electric vehicles are beginning to enter the mainstream, with more models to choose from in dealer showrooms, but widespread adoption will depend on how quickly battery prices fall and charging stations spread. The industry is working hard on both challenges, but in the meantime, buyers are finding that hybrids are a good placeholder. — Joann Muller

Space: All eyes will be on SpaceX and Boeing as both companies aim to get NASA astronauts launching to the International Space Station this year. Will 2020 finally be the year that sees humans sent to orbit from U.S. soil for the first time since the end of the space shuttle program? — Miriam Kramer

Sports: I'll be watching the lead-up to the 2020 Tokyo Games. Who will emerge as the face(s) of Team USA — and the Olympics as a whole — now that global/generational superstars like Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt have retired? — Kendall Baker

What we're watching in 2020

Trump's post-impeachment future, Big Tech regulation, job automation and more.

Photo illustration of a man reading a newspaper surrounded by speech bubbles

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Ralph Morse/Getty Contributor, Kirn Vintage Stock/Getty Contributor

2020 presidential election

Technology

2020 election

Tech Regulation

Elon Musk

From New Zealand to New York City, crowds have gathered to ring in the new year and the start of a new decade.

The big picture: The Pacific island nations of Tonga, Samoa, and Kiribati were the first in the world to mark the arrival of 2020, when it was still 5 a.m. on New Year's Eve on the U.S. East Coast. Here's how events have been unfolding around the U.S. and the world, in photos.

 A general view of atmosphere is seen at the 2020 NHL Winter Classic New Year's Eve Bash at American Airlines Center on December 31, 2019 in Dallas

The 2020 NHL Winter Classic New Year's Eve Bash in Dallas, Texas. Photo: Minas Panagiotakis/NHLI via Getty Images

Red fireworks and yellow strobe lights illuminating the Cinderella Castle in the Walt Disney's Magic Kingdom theme park. 

Fireworks and strobe lights illuminating the Cinderella Castle in Walt Disney's Magic Kingdom theme park in Florida. Photo: Roberto Machado Noa/LightRocket via Getty Images

Confetti fills the air over top of revelers in New York City's Times Square.

Confetti fills the air over top of revelers in New York City's Times Square. Photo: Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro celebrations

Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Photo: Daniel Ramalho/AFP via Getty Images

Fireworks light up the sky over the General de Gaulle bridge and the Ebrie lagoon during New Year's celebrations in Abidjan

General de Gaulle bridge at Ebrie in Abidjan,  the economic capital of Ivory Coast. Photo: Sia Kambou/AFP via Getty Images

Fireworks explode around the London Eye during New Year's celebrations in central London just after midnight on January 1, 2020.

Celebrations at the London Eye in central London. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP via Getty Images

People, including pro-democracy protesters, gather at the promenade of Tsim Sha Tsui district as they take part in a rally and to celebrate the New Years eve, in Hong Kong

Pro-democracy protesters gather at the promenade of Tsim Sha Tsui district as they take part in a rally and celebrate New Year's Eve in Hong Kong. Photo: Philip Fong/AFP via Getty Images

A crowd waits for the new year's eve fireworks at the Champs Elysees in Paris on December 31,

The Champs Elysees in Paris. Photo: Martin Bureau/AFP via Getty Images

he Quadriga statue stands on the Brandenburg Gate during New Year's Eve fireworks on January 01

The Quadriga statue on the Brandenburg Gate during the fireworks in Berlin. Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

People in light-costumes welcome the new year in Coin, near Malaga, Spain, on January 1

People in light-costumes welcome the new year in Coin, near Malaga, Spain. Photo: JORGE GUERRERO/AFP via Getty Images

Fireworks light up the night sky as part of new year celebrations in Amsterdam, The Netherlands on January 1, 2020.

New Year's celebrations in Amsterdam. Photo: Paco Nunez/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Fireworks light up the night sky over Heroes Square within the new year celebrations in Budapest, Hungary on January 01

Heroes Square in Budapest. Photo: Arpad Kurucz/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

People gather to welcome new year at Kizilay Square 

Revelers gather at Kizilay Square in Ankara. Photo: Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

 A boy spins a burning steel wool with a sling performing light painting during the New Year celebrations in Rajpura town

A boy spins burning steel wool with a sling during celebrations in Rajpura town, India. Photo: Saqib Majeed/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Drones are seen forming the year '2020' formation as fireworks, created by Star Island, light up the sky as Singapore ushers in the New Year at Marina Bay on January 1, 2020 in Singapore

Singapore ushers in the new year at Marina Bay. Photo: Suhaimi Abdullah/Getty Images

 People cheer during New Year celebrations in Manila on January 1, 2020. 

People cheer the new year in Manila. Photo:  Maria Tan/AFP via Getty Images

 Fireworks illuminate the night sky over Sulaymaniyah, Iraq

Fireworks illuminate the night sky over Sulaymaniyah, Iraq. Photo: Fariq Faraj Mahmood/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Fireworks go off at the Burj Khalifa on New Year's Eve 2019 on January 1, 2019 in Dubai

Above, Burj Khalifa fireworks in Dubai. Photo: WIN-Initiative/Getty Images.                                  Below, fireworks in Auckland, New Zealand.

 Editor's note: This article has been updated with more images and details of New Year's events around the world.

In photos: Cities around the world ring in the new year

From New Zealand to New York City, crowds have gathered to ring in the new year.

New Year's Eve fireworks erupt over Sydney's iconic Harbour Bridge and Opera House (L) during the fireworks show on January 1, 2020.

Sydney's New Year's Eve fireworks show went ahead despite tens of thousands signing a petition imploring authorities to call it off because of Australia's deadly wildfires.  Photo: Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images

Cities

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said in a New Year's speech that his country would abandon a self-imposed moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, declaring that there "will never be denuclearization on the Korean peninsula" unless the U.S. drops its "hostile" policies, according to state media.

Why it matters: North Korea has not conducted a nuclear or long-range missile test in more than two years, hoping for a breakthrough in negotiations spurred by Kim's friendly personal relationship with President Trump, according to the New York Times. Trump has often touted this moratorium as a diplomatic achievement.

The big picture: In earlier comments at a four-day conference for his ruling party, Kim accused the Trump administration of failing to meet a year’s end deadline for concessions in nuclear talks and warned that North Korea will soon reveal a "new strategic weapon," according to AP.

Some experts say that North Korea is sensitive to U.S. elections and could avoid engaging in serious negotiations over the next year, especially with President Trump set to face an impeachment trial.

Trump's reaction: The president told reporters in Palm Beach Tuesday evening he got along with Kim, but the North Korean leader "did sign an agreement talking about decnuclearization," he said, referring to the Singapore summit document signed in 2018.

"I think he’s a man of his word, so we’re going to find out."

Between the lines: Following the Singapore summit, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haas, writing for Axios, noted that the released statement on decnuclearization was "entirely aspirational" with little substance and "no definitions of denuclearization."

Go deeper: John Bolton hits Trump for bluffing on North Korea nukes

Editor's note: This article has been updated with Trump's comments and more context on the Singapore summit.

Kim Jong-un announces end to moratorium on nuclear weapon tests

Trump says Kim "did sign an agreement talking about decnuclearization" in Singapore.

Kim Jong Un giving his New Year's speech on Dec. 30, 2019. Photo: Jung Yeon-je/AFP via Getty Images

North Korea

Australia's wildfires have claimed another five lives, several people are missing and thousands of people have continued to shelter from fires on beaches at popular tourist spots in two states, authorities say.

The latest: The Australian Defense Force has deployed extra personnel to the states of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia to assist in firefighting efforts, the government confirmed in a statement. The government said it's also sending aid fire-ravaged regions via military ships and aircraft. 

The bodies of three more people were found in fires on New South Wales' South Coast, the NSW Rural Fire Service commissioner told a news conference Wednesday afternoon local time. 

A man's body was found inside a burnt-out car off a major highway on the South Coast, state police said hours earlier before that announcement.

In Victoria, a 67-year-old man was found dead in his East Gippsland home, the Herald Sun reports.

Evacuations: People in Batemans Bay, NSW, have evacuated to the beach to escape bushfires, per 9 News. The town of nearly 16,000 people on the state's south coast attracts some 2 million visitors a year.

4,000 people fled to the beach at the East Gippsland town of Mallacoota in Victoria after evacuating there, fire authorities say.

The victims: The death toll from the wildfires now stands at 17 following several days of intense conditions amid searing heat in Australia's southeast. 

The big picture: The Australian Defense Force has been assisting with firefighting efforts in the states of New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, Victoria and South Australia since Nov. 8, the government says.

Australia's wildfires are so intense, smoke from the blazes has traveled over 1,200 miles to blanket parts of New Zealand's South Island.

In photos: Deadly wildfires rage across Australia

Thousands of koalas likely dead in Australia fires

Australia wildfires' devastating impact on iconic wildlife

Australia swelters through hottest day on record

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Australia deploys military as thousands stranded by wildfires

Australia's military is sending aid via ship and aircraft to fire-ravaged communities.

a firefighter hosing down trees and flying embers in an effort to secure nearby houses from bushfires near the town of Nowra in the Australian state of New South Wales.

An Australian firefighter hosing down trees and flying embers in an effort to secure nearby houses from bushfires near the town of Nowra in New South Wales. Photo: Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

Science

Wildfires

Climate change

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

The United States has stepped up its response to unrest in Iraq after the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was attacked by deploying 750 troops to the region at the direction of President Trump, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Tuesday.

"[The] soldiers will deploy to the region immediately & additional forces from the [Immediate Response Force] are prepared to deploy over the next several days. This deployment is an appropriate and precautionary action taken in response to increased threat levels against U.S. personnel and facilities, such as we witnessed in Baghdad today. The United States will protect our people and interests anywhere they are found around the world."

Driving the news: The deployment comes after thousands of protesters and militia fighters attacked the U.S. Embassy in gates in Baghdad in fury at U.S. airstrikes in Iraq following a Hezbollah rocket barrage last Friday that killed a U.S. defense contractor in a military compound in northern Iraq.

Why it matters: The developments represent a major downturn in U.S.-Iraq relations that could further undermine American influence in the region and also weaken Washington's hand in its maximum pressure campaign against Iran.

What they're saying: Esper said in a statement the Departments of Defense and State were working closely together to ensure the security of "our Embassy and personnel in Baghdad." 

"We have taken appropriate force protection actions to ensure the safety of American citizens, military personnel and diplomats in country, and to ensure our right of self-defense. We are sending additional forces to support our personnel at the Embassy. As in all countries, we rely on host nation forces to assist in the protection of our personnel in country, and we call on the Government of Iraq to fulfill its international responsibilities to do so. The United States continues to support the Iraqi people and a free, sovereign, and prosperous Iraq."

Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida that he doesn't want a war with Iran, nor does he envisage there being one.

"I want to have peace. I like peace," he said. "And Iran should want to have peace more than anybody. So I don’t see that happening."

Background: Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will. Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible. In addition, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!"

Trump also tweeted: "To those many millions of people in Iraq who want freedom and who don’t want to be dominated and controlled by Iran, this is your time!"

U.S. to send "additional forces" after embassy in Baghdad attacked by protesters

U.S. forces conduct airstrikes against Iran-backed militia in Syria, Iraq

Where U.S. troops and military assets are deployed in the Middle East

 Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

U.S. deploying 750 troops to Middle East after embassy attack in Iraq

"The United States will protect our people," Defense secretary says.

The  US embassy in Iraq on December 31 smoke billowing from an entrance of the embassy in the capital Baghdad

Smoke billowing from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Photo: U.S. Embassy in Iraq/AFP via Getty Images

Iraq

From literary giants like Nobel laureate Toni Morrison to longtime civil servants and rights advocates like Rep. Elijah Cummings, many influential figures and pioneers left us in 2019.

Go deeper: Here are the some of the most notable from AP's "final goodbye" tribute to the leading luminaries we lost in 2019.

Frank Robinson: The first African American manager in Major League Baseball and the only player to be named MVP in the National League and the American League.

In this image, a statue of Frank Robinson is seen 

Frank Robinson's statue in Cleveland, Ohio before the 2019 MLB All-Star Game. Photo: Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

In photos: Pioneers we lost in 2019

Many influential figures left us in 2019. Here's a tribute to them, in photos.

Wednesday's top stories