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Saudi Aramco on Saturday published the prospectus for its plans to float a small slice of the world's largest oil-producing company on the kingdom's domestic exchange.

Why it matters: This brings Aramco closer to the long-planned, long-delayed public debut, which could be the largest IPO ever. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman envisions raising tens of billions of dollars to fund Saudi's economic diversification efforts.

What's next: The prospectus will begin a bidding period for investors on Nov. 17, and announcement of the final price is scheduled for Dec. 5.

Trading is expected to begin in mid-December, per The New York Times. 

Individual investors will be allocated up to 0.5% of the shares, the prospectus states.

What we don’t know: The 658-page document does not say what the offer price will be, how much of the company will be floated or list an estimated valuation.

Bin Salman previously hoped for a valuation of $2 trillion, but bank and analyst estimates have been lower, often substantially so.

Kingdom officials have planned to list as much as 5% of the company in a two-tiered process, with the IPO on the domestic exchange first, followed by a listing on a larger, as-yet-unnamed international venue. However, the status of the second step is unclear.

The big picture: The mammoth oil producer reported $111 billion in net income last year and holds massive reserves. It provides roughly 10% of the world's crude oil supply.

There are, nonetheless, questions about its appeal to investors. The company faces security risks laid bare in aerial attacks it suffered in September.

In addition, the company is controlled by the Saudi government, which will remain its dominant shareholder.

Weeks ago, Aramco pledged a $75 billion dividend from 2020 through 2024, and, in a move aimed at reassuring potential investors, said outside shareholders are "intended" to be prioritized if they fall below that amount. 

The intrigue: The prospectus touts a suite of "competitive strengths," such as "Unrivalled scale of crude oil and condensate production and conventional proved reserves" and low per-barrel production costs.

Overall, Aramco sees Saudi crude, condensate and natural gas liquid supplies growing through at least 2050.

It also says growth for oil demand in Asia and other developing nations is expected to offset the effects of alternative energy and new technology like electric vehicles.

The prospectus cites a forecast by IHS Markit, the industry consultant on the document, that global demand is slated to grow through roughly 2035 before leveling off, and "an expected increase in market share from lowest cost producers, including the Kingdom." 

It says that in a scenario where a more rapid transition away from fossil fuels causes demand to peak in the late 2020s, the kingdom's output would still rise through mid-century.

But, but, but: A section of risk disclosures acknowledges: "Climate change concerns and impacts could reduce global demand for hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon-based products and could cause the Company to incur costs or invest additional capital."

It also notes the company may be affected by "Political and social instability and unrest," armed conflict and terrorism.

Saudi Aramco's Record Initial Public Offering Starts November 17 (Bloomberg)

How climate change concerns could affect Saudi Aramco's IPO

Editor's note: This piece has been updated to clarify that the prospectus' projection about global oil demand was citing a forecast by IHS Markit.

New Aramco IPO prospectus touts strengths amid investor questions

The Aramco IPO prospectus acknowledges vulnerabilities, but touts upside to investors.

Oil tanks at an oil processing facility of Saudi Aramco

Oil tanks at an oil processing facility of Saudi Aramco. Photo: Stanislav Krasilnikov / Contributor/Getty Images

Energy

Saudi Aramco

Business

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

Data: ZipRecruiter; Map: Naema Ahmed/Axios

A predicted wave of new jobs in the drone industry may spread beyond the usual tech hotbeds, attached not just to research universities in wealthy areas but to delivery and logistics hubs, construction sites and big industrial installations.

Why it matters: It's not yet clear how much new work drones will create, but where new jobs are — and who will be equipped to do them — will help determine who will benefit from the Drone Age.

The big picture: Thousands of people already work with drones — designing, manufacturing, maintaining and flying them. But the industry is still in its early stages, slowed in part by regulatory requirements.

Experts' estimates for the future of this work vary widely, from a continued steady trickle of new jobs to a broader deluge.

The map above shows today's baseline. Drone-related hiring appears concentrated in big cities — not just in traditional tech hubs like San Francisco and Seattle, but also near Phoenix, Atlanta and Minneapolis.

"It's so easy to see the explosive nature of it," says Ian Siegel, CEO of ZipRecruiter, the job-search site — and an outspoken drone optimist.

"Every industry you look at will potentially be touched by drones," Siegel says. "Anywhere you would go and wait in a line and not be happy about waiting in that line, just assume there'll be a delivery option available."

In data ZipRecruiter shared with Axios, job openings ranged from the obvious (developer, pilot) to the unexpected (lifeguard, camp counselor).

Yes, but: "On the ground, sometimes it feels like it's moving a little slower," says Alan Perlman, CEO of UAV Coach, which trains pilots for a certification required to fly drones.

Perlman says his classes are in demand, but not overflowing.

One thing holding back uptake is many companies' ignorance of how to integrate drones. "They think of drones as a very easy tool, but they don't think about the maintenance schedule and regulations," Perlman says.

The big question: When the government finally allows most pilots to fly drones remotely — beyond their own line of sight — will operations be aggregated into a central location?

Rather than having pilots sitting at every logistics hub, a drone delivery company like UPS or Amazon could put them all in an office building somewhere and have them oversee flights worldwide.

That — plus increasingly autonomous drones — might chip away at the vision of ubiquitous drone jobs.

Where the drone jobs will land

The drone industry may spread work beyond typical tech hotbeds.

Future

Drones

Technology

Jobs

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Over 32 million people have had their protected health information breached this year, in 311 hacking incidents against health care providers that are under investigation by the Department of Health and Human Services.

The big picture: Complex, bloated hospital systems are a glaring weak spot in U.S. cybersecurity — and there are limits on the government's power to help.

Hospitals are vulnerable because they maintain so many systems at once — medical records, billing records and also internet-connected medical devices — that get further entangled after mergers, which have been spiking for at least a decade.

"Hospitals do make an attractive target for cyber bad guys," said John Riggi, a senior cybersecurity adviser for the American Hospital Association.

Attackers know hospitals are open 24/7, have a vastly complex network and can't afford interruptions to public health. 

"Cybercriminals know they are a soft target where they can access patient records and social security numbers and other information," Suzanne Schwartz, a deputy director in the FDA's device center, tells Axios. 

Security firm Forescout has uncovered broken-down protections in hospital systems that make patient records vulnerable. The firm works with one of the largest health care providers in the New York area, Forescout's Tom Dolan said.

Threat level: Some vulnerabilities aren't as hard to fix as they might seem, experts said.

Riggi explains he has heard medical device manufacturers tell hospitals to buy total replacements for machines that may only need a security software update.

"And the hospital won't, because that costs a crap-load of money," Dolan said, noting hospitals can make 30-year investments in equipment like MRI machines.

What's next: The AHA doesn't make its own cybersecurity guidelines and the FDA's are limited. The agency is seeking more legal authority over device security, and the AHA wants FDA guidelines to be made mandatory.

The FDA's cybersecurity oversight in hospitals is limited only to medical devices — not the other internet-connected devices that hospitals are also full of.

The FDA's ability to work with medical device-makers to tackle cybersecurity has improved drastically since the 2017 WannaCry attack, Schwartz said — but hospitals still have weaknesses that are left unaddressed.

The bottom line: The AHA and security vendors like MedCrypt and Forescout recommend that hospitals use network segmentation or medical devices with built-in security features.

Go deeper: What your hospital knows about you

Why hospitals are a weak spot in U.S. cybersecurity

Over 32 million people have had their health information breached this year.

In this illustration, two surgeons perform an operation while a crosshair is seen over both of them.

Health Care

Cybersecurity

House Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) rebuffed the proposal for Hunter Biden to testify in public impeachment inquiry hearings beginning next week, but says he is reviewing the other witnesses House Republicans requested in a letter on Saturday morning.

Why it matters: Current ranking member Rep. Devin Nunes claims House Democrats have failed to treat Trump with "fairness" in the impeachment process thus far by directing witnesses not to answer questions from Republican committee members and by withholding transcripts.

Trump's July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky is at the center of a whistleblower complaint and subsequent impeachment inquiry into whether Trump withheld Ukraine's military aid to encourage an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son. Trump denies any "quid pro quo."

"This inquiry is not and will not serve, however, as a vehicle to undertake the same sham investigations into the Bidens or 2016 that the President pressed Ukraine to conduct for his personal political benefit, or facilitate the President's effort to threaten, intimidate, and retaliate against the whistleblower who courageously raised the initial alarm."

Hunter Biden, former board member of Burisma Holdings

Devon Archer, former board member of Burisma Holdings

Alexandra Chalupa, former Democratic National Committee staffer

David Hale, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs

Tim Morrison, former senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council

Nellie Ohr, former contractor for opposition research firm Fusion GPS

Kurt Volker, former U.S. envoy to Ukraine  

"All individuals" the whistleblower relied on to draft the complaint

What they're saying: "While in traditional hearings the minority is permitted the ability to call a witness, the resolution only allows minority Members to suggest a witness list and requires them to provide 'a detailed written justification of the relevance of the testimony of each requested witness.' ... Your failure to fulfill Minority witness requests shall constitute evidence of your denial of fundamental fairness and due process."

All the people Trump says he doesn't know in the Ukraine investigation

Mulvaney fails to comply with House subpoena

The takeaways from the impeachment inquiry's closed-door phase

Schiff rebuffs call for Bidens, whistleblower to testify in impeachment probe

House Republicans: Failure to fulfill requests is a "denial of fundamental fairness and due process."

Rep. Devin Nunes. Pete Marovich / Stringer/Getty Images

Politics

Trump-Ukraine investigation

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Technology could erode the evidentiary value of video and audio so that we see them more like drawings or paintings — subjective takes on reality rather than factual records.

What's happening: That's one warning from a small group of philosophers who are studying a new threat to the mechanisms we use to communicate and to try to convince one another.

Why it matters: Understanding the coming changes — and how people are likely to react — could help inoculate us against their worst effects.

The big picture: We generally trust that videos and audio clips tell us something about real events, in part because of how costly and time-consuming it is to fake them — unlike, say, a sketch, a statement spoken aloud or even a photo.

But in a world where deepfakes are cheap and easy, videos — no longer constrained by the physics of light — will carry less information than they once did, argues Don Fallis, a philosophy professor at Northeastern University.

"Under those circumstances, videos and photographs would be no more evidential, no more probative, than a drawing," Fallis says.

"There's a power for someone to step in between and tinker with what we're seeing," argues Regina Rini, a philosophy professor at York University in Toronto.

The big picture: There have been plenty of informed guesses about specific potential hazards of AI-powered deepfakes — a spoiled election, a tanked IPO, a derailed trial — but their broader effects on society remain hazy.

Philosophers tackle deepfakes

They warn video could go the way of paintings and drawings.

Axios

Saturday's top stories

New Aramco IPO prospectus touts strengths amid investor questions

Where the drone jobs will land

Why hospitals are a weak spot in U.S. cybersecurity

Schiff rebuffs call for Bidens, whistleblower to testify in impeachment probe

Philosophers tackle deepfakes

Women's Trump-era power surge

Exclusive: Three Democratic senators use another FOIA request to get Trump-Ukraine info

The economic toll of climate change

Trump denies report that he discussed relaunching "The Apprentice"

Trump intends to take tax return fight to Supreme Court

NSC staffer denies having secret Ukraine conversations with Trump