Axios

Oil prices jumped above $90 per barrel Sunday in the first major trading since the deaths of three U.S. service members and escalating Middle East hostilities.

Why it matters: Higher oil prices could quickly translate into more expensive gasoline for consumers and diesel for freight carriers while increasing inflation risks worldwide.

A senior Trump administration official and key adviser are slamming OpenAI head of strategic futures Dean Ball's views on regulation, casting a shadow on the future of the company's relationship with the government.

Why it matters: The criticism targets a former White House architect of the administration's AI Action Plan who now works at OpenAI, potentially complicating the company's relationship with the Trump administration.

DETROIT — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's message on the campaign trail increasingly echoes Barack Obama's early rhetoric during his 2008 campaign for president.

Why it matters: Ocasio-Cortez is broadening her pitch beyond revolutionary democratic socialism to something closer to Obama's "Change You Can Believe In" ahead of a potential 2028 run for the White House.

The Justice Department is asking a never-before-used federal court to remove an unnamed noncitizen, the first use of a 30-year-old process that could give President Trump a new tool for his deportation agenda.

Why it matters: If the Justice Department wins, it could remove people it links to terrorism while keeping much of its evidence secret.

Republicans admit the GOP's midterm forecast is bleak. But they're clinging to two hopes: voters' fear and loathing of Democrats.

• "It's going to be a hate election," a Republican tied to President Trump's political operation told Axios. "Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us. And we have material to work with."

Why it matters: There's broad GOP frustration that Trump has made challenging midterm elections worse by not focusing heavily on pocketbook issues — especially the tax cuts Republicans won — while launching the Iran war, which raised gas prices and fueled inflation.

• Trump's prime-time speech Thursday night about China's alleged influence campaign targeting U.S. voters six years ago did little to assuage those concerns.
• "I have yet to understand how we win the midterms by talking about what happened in 2020," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told Axios.

Zoom in: Trump hopes his speech will pressure Congress to pass his controversial SAVE America Act and excite his base voters to turn out. But GOP pollsters and election pros outside of the White House say it's falling on deaf ears.

• "We've studied this, and it's not a winner," said a Republican pollster working on multiple races nationwide. "Our research shows people want the president to make their life better, and they don't believe he has."

The pollster's data now indicate Democrats could wind up with a seven-seat majority in the House, where Republicans currently have a six-seat edge. Trump's net approval rating is underwater by 10 points.

• A Washington Post/Ipsos poll out Thursday showed Trump's net approval rating was even worse among registered voters: -19%.

Friction point: Democrats also have poor favorability ratings. And Republicans plan to use the Democrats' Tea Party-like revolt by progressives to paint the entire party as radicals who can't be trusted to govern.

• "Swing voters have a persistent fear the Democrats will just go too far left," said a second GOP pollster with an array of clients across the nation. "So we can make the case that yeah, we suck. But they're worse."
• That pollster echoed the first: "The president has got to start talking about things people really care about — like tax cuts — and not all this other stuff. But we know he just won't."

Reality check: Both political parties have similar (low) approval ratings in the eyes of voters, according to a Pew Research Center poll.

• A majority of voters consistently view Trump as dishonest (even in red states, including Texas).
• And Republicans counting on voters hating liberal Democrats more than them might consider this: A CNBC poll out Friday found that voters now are more likely to be turned off by a MAGA candidate than a democratic socialist.

Just when Republicans thought they'd caught a break on gas prices, the collapse of President Trump's Iran deal is derailing their best chance to change the inflation story before the midterms.

Why it matters: Falling gas prices are one of the most tangible ways to ease voter anger over inflation. Renewed combat — and the threat of escalation — has prices shooting back up.

The latest NATO summit, held in Turkey this month, may be most remembered not for politicking and posturing, but for sideline dealmaking.

The big picture: The Ankara get-together concluded with more than $50 billion in new procurements on the books, according to the alliance's readout, as well as a handful of agreements to expand weapons production across borders.

• "One thing is clear: The money is there, and much more is coming. But this cash must be put to work," NATO boss Mark Rutte said at a defense-industrial-base forum that coincided with the summit.

Judges are becoming AI firewalls, setting guidelines for lawyers and litigants entering their courtrooms and reprimanding those who fail to vet their research or cite fake AI-generated cases.

• But judges are also navigating how to use the tech themselves.

Why it matters: As attorney sanctions mount for irresponsible AI use, judges' chambers are at the center of the push and pull between innovation and caution. Some early adopters see AI use as a catalyst for justice — while other jurists remain staunchly skeptical.

Trump Accounts for children went live July 4, and the government's one-time $1,000 contributions are now landing in accounts for eligible kids.

The big picture: Families are latching onto the new IRA-style accounts for kids, with 6.5 million signups so far, per the U.S. Treasury Department. Here are answers to parents' common questions.