The defense world was buzzing over the weekend as the U.S. Air Force punted a decision on its futuristic fighter into the new year and into the hands of an administration that could doom it.

Why it matters: A shape-shifting, multibillion-dollar military endeavor feels like an easy target for an administration obsessed with government bloat.

• President-elect Trump's nominees and advisers have made clear defense orthodoxy is on the chopping block.
• That's doubly true for projects they deem pricey or archaic.

Driving the news: The Air Force on Dec. 5 said it will defer ruling on Next-Generation Air Dominance and instead continue studying what is needed for success.

• Secretary Frank Kendall months ago told reporters that experts are "taking a very hard look at whether we've got the right design concept."
• Money is among the biggest hurdles. Kendall wants an F-22 replacement for the cost of an F-35, some $80-100 million.
• A contract was expected this year. Cancellation, suspension or some other dramatic move would be a blow to the contenders, presumed to be Lockheed Martin and Boeing.

Friction point: Both Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk, billionaires tapped to cut costs and rightsize the federal workforce, have ridiculed manned aircraft.

• Ramaswamy told Axios' Mike Allen at the Aspen Institute's Washington forum that sharpening U.S. defense means investing in drones and hypersonic missiles, not "a wide range of other expenditures for new kinds of fighter jets."
• Musk posted on X, which he owns, that "some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35" and that "manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway."

The messaging spooked some and excited others. It prompted questions at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California (more on that below) and continues to inspire think pieces.

What they're saying: "There are real questions about the cost of NGAD and there are real questions about the right mix of manned and unmanned aircraft in the future force," Jerry McGinn, the executive director of the George Mason University Baroni Center for Government Contracting, told me.

• "This gives the Trump administration space to address these important issues in an intentional manner."

Yes, but: There is plenty of appetite for America's warplanes on the Hill, across the military and even in some MAGA documents.

• As Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin defended the NGAD process, delays and all, at RNDF, other service officials at Edwards Air Force Base, California, told reporters they're far from ditching manned fighters.
• The Pentagon chapter of Project 2025, authored by a former Trump defense chief, advocates for "the next-generation air dominance system of systems" but stops short of backing a crewed fighter.

The bottom line: Killing NGAD — even portions of it — would signal a sea change for both the military and its contractors.

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The Reagan National Defense Forum and its centerpiece survey are behind us.

Here are a handful of soundbites and stats that caught my attention.

• Of note: The survey was conducted just days after the election, Nov. 8-14. It illuminates what bugged voters, where they want Washington's focus and the vibes handed to President-elect Trump.

The U.S. is in the throes of a "legitimation crisis," according to Palantir Technologies CEO Alex Karp, who also endorsed the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.

• More than half the people polled said the U.S. was heading in the wrong direction.

The Pentagon and its suppliers are "not equipped to meet the demands of protracted, multi-theater conflict," outgoing Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said. "Blame for this chronic deficiency is plentiful."

• About 80% of respondents at least "somewhat" favored more military spending — with almost 50% "strongly" in favor.

There are now 12,000-plus North Korean troops in Russia, according to Indo-Pacific Command boss Adm. Samuel Paparo. "They were not asked for by Russia," he said, "but they were offered and accepted."

• Nearly 60% of interviewees support a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war, even if it involves conceding ground to Moscow.

Smaller companies specializing in advanced manufacturing are "changing the landscape" and bolstering supply chains, said Heidi Shyu, the Pentagon's chief technology officer. "The big primes are seeing that, as well."

• More than one-third of respondents believe "a lot more" defense production is needed. That's a tick up from 2023.

The bottom line: "The theme this year is peace through strength during a transition," Roger Zakheim, the Washington director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, told me.

• That "question of transition is going to animate" everything, he said.

⬇️ U.S. Air Force B-52, F-15 and A-10 aircraft hit more than 75 ISIS targets across Syria in the wake of Bashar al-Assad's exodus. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, traveling in Japan, described the operation as "pretty successful."

• Why it matters: The collapse of the Assad regime has launched a new chapter in a great-power struggle that has shaped the Middle East for decades, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
• 💭 My thought bubble: There are approximately 900 American troops in Syria. President-elect Trump could try to pull them out.

💵 Deterrence secured $10.1 million in seed funding to automate energetics production, I can exclusively report. It was led by Riot Ventures.

• Why it matters: In the case of energetics, little has changed over the years. CEO Dhruva Rajendra told me he wants to establish "a new paradigm for how critical energetics components are manufactured."
• 💭 My thought bubble: This feeds into one of the major themes we outlined in the inaugural Future of Defense newsletter: Resources win wars.

❌ The Pentagon issued a classified counter-drone strategy, building on the work of the Joint Counter-Small UAS Office and the second wave of Replicator.

• Why it matters: Unmanned tech is "making it more difficult for forces to hide, concentrate, communicate, and maneuver," the public summary reads. Look no further than Ukraine.
• 💭 My thought bubble: Counter-drone weapons and tactics dominated this year's Association of the U.S. Army convention. Here's a rundown (with photos, too).

This week's conversation is with Booz Allen Hamilton CEO Horacio Rozanski.

• We met at the company's offices in Bethesda, Maryland. My train broke down on the way, and an Uber canceled on me.
• I did get there on time, though, and we grabbed Starbucks.

Why he matters: Rozanski has seen it all at Booz Allen. He started with the company — one of the world's largest defense contractors — in 1991 as a summer intern.

Q: When you hear "future of defense," what comes to mind?

A: Speed. I'm obsessed with speed. The pace at which the world is changing, the pace at which our adversaries are changing — we need to be faster than them.

• We need to be able to operate inside their decision cycle. We need to be able to operate inside their development cycle. We can't assume that we know what the world is going to look like 30 years from now. But we have to get there faster.

Q: When will wars be waged solely by robots?

A: This is not the answer I would like to give, but the answer is now. If you think through the warfighting domains, in cyberspace, we're essentially almost at computer-to-computer conflict. Then you go to space with all the debris and the congestion and everything out there, autonomy is around the corner, and as it becomes a contested domain, same thing. Then you start to think about underwater and all these other domains.

• I wish I could say never. That would be a better answer.

Q: What region of the world should we be watching? Why?

A: Space. I think what's happening in orbit is going to affect the entire world.

Q: How many emails do you get a day, and how do you deal with them?

A: An infinite number. We run a triage operation, essentially.

• We prioritize with a long tail that, honestly, I never get to.

Q: What's your secret to a successful overnight flight?

A: Because of my lifetime as a management consultant, I have a Pavlovian response to airplane smell. I sit on a plane and I fall asleep, and I wake up either at touchdown or after.

• But the secret is: If I don't fall asleep, avoid alcohol.

Q: What's a piece of gear or tech you can't go without?

A: I am completely addicted to the Apple ecosystem. I think I own everything they make. Not every model of everything they make, to be clear, but I own everything they make, including an Apple Vision Pro.

Q: What advice would you give your younger self?

A: My career took off when I stopped worrying about my career and started worrying about learning stuff.

• That's why I'm reading about quantum physics.

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I spent part of last week at the Outrider Nuclear Reporting Summit in Washington.

• Among the programming's exclamation points was this, above: a nuclear bomb blast simulator.

Why it matters: Few things provide such visceral perspective. As Outrider puts it: "What would happen if a nuclear bomb went off in your backyard?"

Zoom in: Plug in your address, select a weapon and detonation type and watch mass destruction unfurl.