Where Trump, Musk and the U.S. Air Force's next-gen fighter intersect
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The defense world was buzzing over the weekend as the U.S. Air Force punted a decision on its futuristic fighter into the new year and into the hands of an administration that could doom it.
Why it matters: A shape-shifting, multibillion-dollar military endeavor feels like an easy target for an administration obsessed with government bloat.
- President-elect Trump's nominees and advisers have made clear defense orthodoxy is on the chopping block.
- That's doubly true for projects they deem pricey or archaic.
Driving the news: The Air Force on Dec. 5 said it will defer ruling on Next-Generation Air Dominance and instead continue studying what is needed for success.
- Secretary Frank Kendall months ago told reporters that experts are "taking a very hard look at whether we've got the right design concept."
- Money is among the biggest hurdles. Kendall wants an F-22 replacement for the cost of an F-35, some $80-100 million.
- A contract was expected this year. Cancellation, suspension or some other dramatic move would be a blow to the contenders, presumed to be Lockheed Martin and Boeing.
Friction point: Both Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk, billionaires tapped to cut costs and rightsize the federal workforce, have ridiculed manned aircraft.
- Ramaswamy told Axios' Mike Allen at the Aspen Institute's Washington forum that sharpening U.S. defense means investing in drones and hypersonic missiles, not "a wide range of other expenditures for new kinds of fighter jets."
- Musk posted on X, which he owns, that "some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35" and that "manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway."
The messaging spooked some and excited others. It prompted questions at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California and continues to inspire think pieces.
What they're saying: "There are real questions about the cost of NGAD and there are real questions about the right mix of manned and unmanned aircraft in the future force," Jerry McGinn, the executive director of the George Mason University Baroni Center for Government Contracting, told Axios.
- "This gives the Trump administration space to address these important issues in an intentional manner."
Yes, but: There is plenty of appetite for America's warplanes on the Hill, across the military and even in some MAGA documents.
- As Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin defended the NGAD process, delays and all, at RNDF, other service officials at Edwards Air Force Base, California, told reporters they're far from ditching manned fighters.
- The Pentagon chapter of Project 2025, authored by a former Trump defense chief, advocates for "the next-generation air dominance system of systems" but stops short of backing a crewed fighter.
The bottom line: Killing NGAD — even portions of it — would signal a sea change for both the military and its contractors.
