Axios AM

November 02, 2023
Happy Thursday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,357 words ... 5 mins. Edited by Emma Loop and Bryan McBournie.
🌐 Situational awareness: President Biden nominated Kurt Campbell, a China hawk, to be deputy secretary of state. Go deeper.
1 big thing: Quiet campaign to succeed Biden
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Samir Hussein/WireImage
Democratic governors and senators are quietly boosting their national profiles to set up presidential campaigns in 2028 — or 2024, if President Biden unexpectedly drops out, Axios' Alex Thompson and Sophia Cai report.
- Why it matters: These ambitious Dems all support Biden's re-election. The jockeying is a hedge against a presidential health scare, or other surprise, before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next August.
More than half a dozen Democratic lawmakers recently have established national political organizations, embarked on résumé-building foreign trips, and visited states with early presidential contests.
- Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and California Rep. Ro Khanna traveled to New Hampshire. Khanna returned this week to debate GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker — who ran for president in 2020 — has $10 million in cash on hand for a 2026 Senate re-election bid that he could transfer to a 2024 presidential campaign.
- Booker will headline a panel in South Carolina on health care and abortion rights on Nov. 18.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pritzker each recently launched a national political group — Campaign for Democracy, Fight Like Hell PAC and Think Big America, respectively.
- Newsom's group has focused on gun safety. Whitmer and Pritzker's groups emphasize abortion rights.
🥊 Reality check: All of the Democrats reiterated to Axios their support for Biden and their plans to work hard to get him re-elected.
- Biden, who'd be 86 at the end of a second term, released a report from his doctor saying he's in good health.
The intrigue: Democrats' commitment to Biden hasn't stopped them from running just-in-case scenarios.
- If Biden were to leave the race before the end of this year, there likely would be time for candidates to get on enough state ballots to win the nomination.
- But if he were to exit after Jan. 1, the fight could go to the Democratic convention. Candidates wouldn't be able to get on the ballot in enough states, according to an analysis in September by the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck, who has been on the DNC Rules Committee since 1997.
- In that case, Biden likely would have some delegates and could ask them to support a candidate. But the delegates would be free to support who they want.
2. 🏡 Verdict may lower home prices


It took a Kansas City jury just three hours to find that the National Association of Realtors conspired with two of the nation's largest brokerages to keep commissions on home sales high, Axios' Emily Peck reports.
- Why it matters: U.S. homebuyers spend around $100 billion a year on broker fees. If the jury's $1.8 billion verdict is upheld, that number will likely shrink. Home prices could fall.
💨 Catch up fast: At issue were the commissions paid to real estate agents on most home sales.
- Sellers typically pay a fee of 5%-6% of a home's sale price. That's split between the seller's agent and the buyer's agent.
- The plaintiffs argued that NAR and its codefendants conspired to keep those rates high, and that the system prevents sellers or buyers from negotiating the fees down. (Go deeper.)
State of play: The case will drag out for a while. NAR said it would appeal the verdict, and ask the judge to lower the damages awarded.
- But fees likely will start dropping now. In the lead-up to the verdict, NAR said a seller's fee could be as low as zero.
- Brokerage firms might start telling their agents to have conversations with clients about fees, inviting negotiation, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman writes.
The bottom line: The change could spur fee competition among brokers — a great way to lower prices.
3. 🇺🇦 Waning U.S. support for Ukraine


The share of Americans who say the U.S. is doing "too much" to help Ukraine against Russia jumped to 41% last month — driven by growing opposition among Republicans, Axios' Stef Kight writes from a new Gallup survey.
- Why it matters: The findings come as new House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) plans to bring a vote this week on aid for Israel — decoupling it from Ukraine aid and border funds.
What's happening: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has doubled down on his support for Ukraine.
- Johnson has indicated support for at least some additional aid for Ukraine.
🧮 By the numbers: 62% of Republicans now say the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine — up from 50% in June.
- 44% of independents say the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine — a jump of 10 points since June.
- Only 14% of Democrats said the U.S. is doing "too much."
4. 🏙️ America's comeback downtowns

Las Vegas, El Paso and San Jose lead the country in downtown recovery from the depths of COVID, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj report.
- Researchers at the University of Toronto's School of Cities based their findings on downtown visitors in March through mid-June 2023, compared to the same period in 2019.
5. 🏛️ Dems save Santos

Dozens of House Democrats sent shockwaves through Congress last night by sinking a measure to expel Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), Axios' Andrew Solender and Stef Kight report.
- Why it matters: Democrats expressed concerns about the precedent of expelling a colleague who hasn't been criminally convicted or subject to a complete House Ethics Committee process — even one as hated as Santos.
Santos faces nearly two dozen federal charges and a likely re-election loss if he manages to stay in Congress through 2024.
- The resolution failed 179-213, with 31 Democrats joining most Republicans in voting against.
Between the lines: Just 24 Republicans voted for the resolution. Most of the Dems against it were, like Republicans who supported it, moderates and from swing districts.
6. 🎧 New Axios podcast drops

World Central Kitchen founder José Andrés is today's debut guest on our new weekly podcast hosted by Niala Boodhoo, "1 Big Thing."
- Each Thursday, Niala will go deep with leaders you know, or will want to know, on one big topic — all in 20 minutes or less.
Andrés — speaking to us from Acapulco, Mexico, where he's working on Hurricane Otis recovery — is sounding the alarm about food being used as a weapon of war in modern conflicts.
- Andrés takes listeners behind the scenes of the World Central Kitchen in Ukraine, sounding more like a seasoned military official talking logistics than a nonprofit head.
He points out that food can also be an instrument of peace.
7. 🏀 Remembering "The General" of college hoops

These Feb. 23, 1985, photos show legendary Indiana coach Bobby Knight winding up and pitching a chair during the Hoosiers' 72-63 loss to Purdue in Bloomington, Ind.
Knight — the brilliant and combustible coach who won three NCAA titles at Indiana, and for years was the scowling face of college basketball — died at 83 yesterday at his home in Bloomington.
- Why he mattered: Knight was among the sport's winningest and most controversial coaches, finishing with 902 career victories in 42 seasons at Army, Indiana and Texas Tech, AP reports.
The Hall of Famer cared little what others thought — choosing Frank Sinatra's "My Way" to celebrate his 880th win in 2007, then the record for a Division I men's coach.
- The N.Y. Times obit is headlined: "Bobby Knight, Basketball Coach Known for Trophies and Tantrums."
Go deeper: Knight quotables ... More on the chair toss.
8. ⚾ 1 for the road: Texas-sized championship

The Texas Rangers won their first World Series, blanking the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-0 in Game 5 of the best-of-seven series in Phoenix last night.
- The Rangers became the first MLB team to win 11 straight away playoff games, reports Tasha Tsiaperas of Axios Dallas.

Above: Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager hoists the Willie Mays MVP trophy for the second time in his career.
- Go deeper: 52 years in the making ... Get Axios Dallas ... 30 Axios Local cities.
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