What a Democrat's Tampa win means for November
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The state Division of Elections has certified Democrat Brian Nathan's narrow victory in the special election for Tampa's Senate District 14.
Why it matters: His win has raised questions and, for Florida Democrats, hope about the general election in November.
Driving the news: The odds weren't particularly in Nathan's favor, even though the seat had a history of changing hands.
- To win, Nathan had to overcome a massive fundraising disadvantage and a voter registration deficit of over 22,000 — and, because Republicans eclipsed Democrats in turnout, he also had to lure independents.
- But, in the end, Nathan won by 405 votes. A stunning upset in a seat that Republicans had won by 10 points in 2022.
Between the lines: Democrats also flipped a state House seat in West Palm Beach, where President Trump cast his ballot. But whether those wins ultimately mean anything for November is not so clear.
- Democrats puffed, in speeches and online, about flips in a Jacksonville mayoral race and an Orange County House seat in 2024, but virtually none of the success of those races materialized.
- In fact, the Democrat who flipped that House seat in Orange County, went on to lose a rematch in the general election.
Yes, but: President Trump won't be at the top of the ticket this time around, nor will Gov. Ron DeSantis — and a groundswell of frustration over inflation and the cost of living could wind up working against incumbents.
Susan MacManus, professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida, told Axios that there are strong parallels between the two special-election races and lessons to be learned.
- For one, both of the races pit political newcomers against incumbents, which "could signal that people are fed up with the status quo."
- Second, the candidates reframed broad terms like affordability into clear, real-world components such as gas prices, rent, housing and insurance costs. "They connected with voters on the issues at the top of their list."
The bottom line: "This race was a shot in the arm for Democrats and a wake-up call for Republicans," said MacManus.
- "The key message for both of these parties is that they have to be extremely attentive to what issues are driving their potential supporters to the polls," she added.