Democrat leads in Tampa state senate race to replace Lt. Gov. Collins
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Democratic union leader Brian Nathan holds a narrow lead over former GOP State House Rep. Josie Tomkow in the race for State Senate District 14, according to unofficial results.
- As of Tuesday night, Nathan led Tomkow by 0.5% of roughly 80,000 ballots cast, which is the margin that triggers an automatic recount under state law.
Why it matters: A win by Nathan would reclaim a seat that Republicans flipped in 2022 and end a seven-month stretch in which the district's nearly 300,000 residents had no representation in Tallahassee.
- Lt. Gov. Jay Collins vacated the seat in August, and Gov. Ron DeSantis waited until October to call a special election to replace him.
Driving the news: Nathan overcame a voter registration deficit of about 23,000 and a major fundraising disadvantage. Republicans also outpaced Democrats in early voting turnout.
- Nathan told the Tampa Bay Times that he expected to be outraised, but said he wouldn't be outworked. His grassroots campaign also hit Tomkow for running in Hillsborough but living in Polk County.
- DeSantis may have held back from calling the special election because the district has a history of changing hands. Before Collins won the seat in 2022, former state Sen. Janet Cruz (D) held it.
Between the lines: A Navy veteran and union leader, Nathan entered the race in August and raised more than $100,000. He drew support from labor unions and Tampa City Council members Guido Maniscalco and Bill Carson.
- He touted his experience as an electrician to set himself apart from those in Tallahassee who he said "haven't gotten their hands dirty." He advocated for higher wages and more affordable housing.
- "The basic things that are necessities in your everyday life have become, or are becoming, unaffordable for a lot of people, and that's their major concern," Nathan told the Times.
Zoom out: Democrats also look poised to capture House District 87 in West Palm Beach — where President Trump cast his ballot — leading in two out of three special elections held on Tuesday.
What's next: Hillsborough County Election Supervisor Craig Latimer must order a recount if a candidate's margin of victory is within 0.5%, unless the trailing candidate requests in writing that it not take place.
- The winner of the recount will head to Tallahassee in April, where votes on the state budget and redistricting await.