Democrats notch special election win in Trump's backyard

• Trump voted for Maples by mail, despite repeatedly railing against mail-in voting.

Zoom out: Republicans have been getting creamed in dozens of state legislative elections since Trump took office last year.

• Democratic candidates running for state legislative seats this year have outperformed 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris' vote totals by nearly 11 points, according to The Downballot, a site that tracks congressional and state-level elections.
• The sluggish GOP voter turnout is deeply concerning Republican strategists ahead of the midterm elections.

Reality check: Though Florida Republicans are disappointed by the outcome, they're still expressing confidence they'll keep the governorship and a U.S. Senate this in the fall midterms.

• Republicans have not lost a statewide race in Florida since 2018, and the party maintains control of the state legislature.

What they're saying: "A low-turnout state House special election is a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math — not some grand verdict," said Republican National Committee Senior Adviser Danielle Alvarez Tuesday night.

The other side: "Donald Trump's own neighbors just sent a crystal clear message: They are furious and ready for change," Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a Tuesday night statement.

Marc Caputo contributed reporting.