Inside the fight to save Florida's endangered Democrats from extinction

• Fried is the last Democrat to hold statewide office, a feat that made her the focus of the party's hopes. She became FDP chair in 2023 with an urgent mandate: Save an endangered party from extinction.

The big picture: Republicans seized the Sunshine State in 1999. The youngest generations of Floridians can't remember a time before GOP rule. And over the past five years, Gov. Ron DeSantis has tightened the party's grip on virtually every hall of power.

• For decades, Florida Democrats mismanaged their way into irrelevance.
• "The party only organizes for six months every four years," says veteran Democratic political strategist Steve Schale. "A presidential campaign drops in, either succeeds or fails, and then leaves."

State of play: This November has the potential to be different.

• Millennials and Gen Z now form a larger share of Florida's registered voters than Baby Boomers.
• Support for the abortion referendum is almost certain to mobilize them, and, for the first time in decades, FDP recruited a full slate of candidates to take advantage of that.
• The result is a base that "feels more alive than it has in a long time," Democratic elections analyst Matt Isbell tells Axios.

Fried believes November is a rare chance for the once-perennial swing state to teeter — that Florida Democrats, under her leadership, have made a "clear resurgence."

Yes, but: Fried's savior rhetoric so far outpaces her results.

• Stakeholders fret that most of the changes under her tenure are cosmetic and that much of the momentum is a result of things — like the abortion referendum — for which Fried can't claim credit.

📉 Zoom in: Bleeding voters

Fried inherited a state party on life support. In DeSantis' words: "A dead, rotten carcass on the side of the road."

• The issues: sustained electoral losses, dwindling voter registration numbers and no backing from the national party.

Fried believed the fix needed to begin with an image overhaul — a new logo, patriotic party colors — and new messaging centered on affordability, accountability and abortion.

• "Why would somebody register as a Democrat if they don't know what we stand for and what we fight for?" she told Axios in April, later adding, "Communication is No. 1."

She revamped and beefed up the party's communications team, which now fires off multiple statements an hour, and shelled out for splashy PR plays — billboards urging people to run for office, for one.

• Better visibility translated into a bigger war chest.
• It also helped the FDP compete for all legislative and congressional seats, resulting in the re-election of 10 Democrats who did not face any GOP opponents.

Friction point: Axios interviewed over a dozen people who work for or with the party — and almost all said Fried's prioritization of marketing over voter registration is misguided.

• "The proof is in the pudding," says Susan MacManus, professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida. "The registration gap has not narrowed whatsoever."

By the numbers: Florida Democrats have lost 11.6% of their active registered voters since Fried took over, or 565,857 people.

• This plunge began in May 2023 — when DeSantis signed a law that accelerated the clean-up of outdated voter rolls.

Stunning stat: By contrast, the Florida Republican Party lost only 3% of their active registered voters between February 2023 and December 2023. By March this year, they'd gained nearly two-thirds of them back.

Threat level: Democratic consultant Ashley Walker said the FDP's dwindling numbers show it needs to get "back to the basics."

• "I think the path back to relevancy for Florida Democrats involves voter registration, voter registration and more voter registration."

Fried has a different take: If the party can refine its message to appeal to Florida's 3.5 million independents, she argues, the registration deficit won't matter.

🗳️ The intrigue: The 2026 question

Some skeptical Democrats feel Fried's branding push is more about self-promotion than the party's success.

• Case in point: She features herself in FDP materials, prompting former Miami Herald reporter David Quiñones to argue she's "turning the state party into a vanity project."

Meanwhile, Fried has refused to directly address whether she plans to run for governor in 2026, fueling concerns that she sees her current role as a springboard.

What they're saying: The FDP needs "a rebuild, and it's not going to happen in a cycle," Schale tells Axios. "We need a chair who is willing to commit to it."

• Fernand Amandi, a veteran Democratic operative, says Fried has "the talent and the ability to be a successful chair" if she's in it for the long haul. "I'm just not sure she is."

Flashback: Fried sparked backlash soon after she became agriculture commissioner in 2019, when she replaced gas pump inspection stickers with ones featuring her photo.

• Her headline-making sparring sessions with DeSantis at cabinet meetings stoked speculation she planned to run against him.
• Once she entered the race, she faced persistent skepticism of her environmental bona fides and distrust of her friendships with Republicans like U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz.
• She was trounced by Charlie Crist in the 2022 primary — losing a Democratic authenticity contest to a former Republican.

Now, curiosity about her political future goes as high as the White House: President Biden says he "made her promise" to run again.

The other side: Fried pointed Axios to Biden's comment — which she says he made to her in private as well.

• That's as far as she'd go in talking about her political future. "I am laser focused on 2024."

Her allies do little to dispel the notion that her work as chair is a shadow campaign for governor.

• "So what if it is?" says Jennifer Jenkins of the Brevard County school board. "If we have someone aiming for the highest office in the state, and she accomplishes that by improving the party's apparatus and being successful, isn't that a good thing?"

👀 What's next: 2024's stakes

Fried's aims for 2024 range from modest to profound. She wants to:

• break the party's super-minority in the Florida House;
• reclaim state Senate District 3 in the Panhandle, a seat Democrats had held for a decade before Republicans flipped it in 2022;
• reelect the party's 56 incumbents;
• and enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution.

The impact: The abortion amendment's success would make Florida a safe haven for reproductive care in the South.

• Ending the super-minority would give Democrats a say in votes to overturn the governor's veto and place constitutional amendments on the ballot.
• It would also give them more leverage in committees and debates.

Zoom out: Fried needs these wins to counter the notion, solidified in 2022, that Florida's no longer a battleground and to signal to donors the state is worth the investment.

• That show of success, along with the funding it would attract, could make 2026 competitive.

The latest: Kamala Harris' rise to the top of the presidential ticket generated a surge of support here; over 7,000 residents have enlisted to help her campaign.

• Harris is a more effective voice than Biden on abortion, and Florida Democrats hope she'll encourage the youngest generations to vote.

Reality check: Donald Trump's grip on Florida has been ironclad. Republicans have raked in millions more than Democrats. And some voters find the abortion referendum confusing.

What she's saying: "Every single member of the Florida Democratic Party understands the gravity of this moment," Fried says, calling 2024 "an uphill battle" that's about "the human toll."

• "How many more families are going to have to leave because they can't raise their children here? How many seniors have to relocate after retirement because they can no longer afford property insurance? How many kids are going to continue to be bullied because they're a member of the LGBTQ+ community?"

The bottom line: The Florida Democratic Party is, by its own admission, on the brink of extinction. This November, nothing less than survival is at stake.