The West's snowpack is in trouble this winter
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
One of the most disappointing ski seasons in memory is unfolding across the region, and it's not just a problem for winter sports enthusiasts.
The big picture: Unusually low snowpack this winter is raising serious drought and water supply concerns across the western U.S., per NOAA and the National Integrated Drought Information System.
Snow cover across the West totaled 141,416 square miles on Jan. 4 — the lowest for that date in the MODIS satellite record, which dates back to 2001, according to the federal data.
- More than 80% of snow-monitoring stations in several Western states are reporting a snow water equivalent below the 20th percentile — a threshold used to define snow drought, the data shows.
Zoom in: Washington's snowpack is about 50% what it should be at this time of year, while Oregon's is closer to one-third, said Guillaume Mauger, Washington's state climatologist.
State of play: Many skiers are bemoaning the sense that winter may already be "slipping away," Powder Poobah meteorologist Michael Fagin told Axios.
- "There's been a lot of anxiety about whether the season is basically done," said Fagin.
- But there's some reason for optimism, he said, with forecast models pointing to colder air returning and snow levels dropping to about 4,000 feet beginning Sunday and Monday.
- The snowfall isn't expected to be heavy, he said, but even modest amounts would be a welcome change after the unusually high snow lines.
What's happening: The core problem isn't a lack of precipitation — it's warmth, Mauger said.
- Warm atmospheric rivers this winter pushed snow levels thousands of feet higher than normal, he said, turning what would typically fall as mountain snow into rain that ran off immediately instead of being stored.
What they're saying: Snowpack functions as the region's largest natural reservoir, Mauger told Axios.
- When that storage runs low, the risks ripple outward, impacting rivers, agriculture, cities and entire ecosystems.
What's next: The high-pressure ridge responsible for Seattle's recent warm weather is expected to break down by the end of the week, allowing a more active and seasonable pattern to return, said Matthew Cullen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Seattle.
- That shift should bring colder temperatures and chances of periodic mountain snow early next week, with snow levels low enough to affect some major passes and ski areas, he said.
The bottom line: While experts say it's unlikely the region will fully make up for the season's lost snowfall, history shows late-season snow can still arrive in a big way.
- Just ask February 2019, when Seattle went from virtually snowless to more than 20 inches in just over a week, making it one of the city's snowiest months on record.