Oregon's warm, dry winter threatens snowpack
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
It's the middle of winter and as I write this, the forecast calls for a balmy high of 50°F and we haven't seen more than a trace of rain in Portland in almost two weeks.
Why it matters: This stretch of dry, warm days in January just feels off, but it could also have severe implications for winter recreation, wildfires and irrigation later this year.
By the numbers: Through Tuesday, the National Weather Service has measured 2.13 inches of rain at its weather station in Northeast Portland this month.
- That's more than an inch less than the 3.18 inches we usually see by this time in January.
- Most of the state's river basins are well below 50% of snow water equivalent, a measure of how much water the snowpack holds.
- The Willamette Valley is the lowest in the state at just 31% as of Tuesday.
And all of this comes during a La Niña year, which was predicted to bring colder and wetter conditions than usual.
Catch up quick: Oregon had its warmest November and December since records began in 1895.
- Our average temperature was 7.9°F above average in December.
- Even with a series of powerful atmospheric rivers that swept through the state last month, precipitation for the state has been just about average, state climatologist Larry O'Neill told Axios.
- The biggest difference, he said, is that much of that precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, even at higher elevations.
What they're saying: "The historically warm start to winter has created a historically low snowpack," O'Neill said.
Between the lines: While it's difficult to pin any particular weather phenomenon on climate change, the warming of our atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels makes winters like this one more likely.
Threat level: Snowpack in the Cascades acts as a natural reservoir, slowly releasing water as temperatures rise in the spring and summer.
- It refills reservoirs, recharges groundwater, keeps stream flows strong and even moderates warmer temperatures at higher elevations.
- If the winter doesn't turn around quick, a diminished snowpack could lead to lower crop yields, bigger wildfires, fewer recreation opportunities and more stress on fish and their ecosystems, O'Neill said.
Yes, but: He did note, however, that some years have seen big storms in February and March and "there is still some hope that snowpack conditions will improve," O'Neill said.
- "This will require a series of cold storms. Unfortunately, none are currently on the horizon for the next two weeks."