Katie Wilson widens lead in Seattle mayor’s race

Progressive organizer Katie Wilson is most likely Seattle's next mayor, after yesterday's vote count showed her leading incumbent Bruce Harrell by 1,346 votes — a margin that would be hard for Harrell to overcome at this point.

Why it matters: If her lead stands, Wilson — the co-founder of the nonprofit Transit Riders Union — will unseat Harrell, a more centrist politician who served three city council terms before becoming mayor.

By the numbers: As of yesterday, Wilson was capturing 50.08% of the vote to Harrell's 49.59%.

• That's a change from election night, when Wilson trailed Harrell by about 7 percentage points.

Context: The latest results build on the narrow 91-vote lead Wilson claimed in the race Monday.

• In Seattle's vote-by-mail elections, left-lane candidates in city races often gain ground in later vote counts — a trend that has benefited Wilson over the past week.

State of play: About 1,400 ballots from Seattle voters remained uncounted as of yesterday evening, while another 1,540 had signature issues that could potentially be resolved, according to King County Elections.

• That doesn't leave Harrell much runway to catch up.

Between the lines: The close margin could prompt a mandatory recount — but even then, Wilson's lead is large enough that it is highly unlikely to be reversed, local political consultants Crystal Fincher and Ben Anderstone told Axios yesterday.

• "Barring some shocking anomaly emerging, Katie Wilson is going to be the next mayor of Seattle," political consultant Sandeep Kaushik told Axios.

Catch up quick: Wilson, who has not held elected office, campaigned on the need to make Seattle more affordable.

• She criticized Harrell as not doing enough to combat the city's high cost of living or address homelessness, and advocated for new progressive taxes to help close the city's budget gap.
• Harrell, who was elected mayor in 2021, argued Wilson lacks the experience needed to lead the city.
• He highlighted his efforts to improve public safety and hire more police, citing a recent decline in crime rates, while arguing Wilson would reverse progress made over the past four years.

What's next: A mandatory recount would occur if the margin between Harrell and Wilson is fewer than 2,000 votes and less than 0.5% of all ballots cast for both candidates.

• More results are slated for release around 4pm today.