Why Seattle's elections often swing left as counting continues
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Seattle elections are known to see big leftward swings in later vote counts — and that's largely because younger, more progressive voters tend to cast their ballots on or near Election Day, two political consultants tell Axios.
The big picture: That leftward shift can make it difficult to know the results in close city races for several days, a dynamic now playing out in the race for Seattle mayor.
Case in point: In the latest results from Tuesday's vote-by-mail election, left-lane candidate Katie Wilson cut deeper into the lead that centrist Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell has held since election night.
- In Friday's count, Wilson was capturing 48.86% of the vote to Harrell's 50.74%, a difference of less than 2 percentage points.
- That's an improvement from Election Day, when she was down about 7 percentage points, as well as from Wednesday, when she was down about 8 points.
What they're saying: Citywide elections commonly see swings of 9 to 11 percentage points as more votes are tallied, making Harrell's current lead far from insurmountable, consultant Ben Anderstone told Axios on Friday.
- The race is "on the knife's edge," Anderstone said.
Between the lines: Differences in voting habits between the city's younger and older voters are driving the trend, political consultant Sandeep Kaushik told Axios.
- "One of the central political dividing lines in Seattle is on the basis of age," Kaushik said. "Older voters tend to be more moderate, while younger voters lean much harder left."
- Younger voters also tend to vote late and are much more likely to use drop boxes than they are to put their ballots in the mail, he said.
- "Those votes come in late and get counted later in the process, and that's why you see a sharp break to the left," Kaushik said.
Yes, but: It's not just 20-somethings on Capitol Hill doing this, Anderstone said.
- Seattle professionals in their 30s and 40s also lean liberal and tend to vote late because they are busy, he said — a pattern he said that plays out in neighborhoods including Loyal Heights, Ballard, Fremont and Phinney Ridge.
The intrigue: The same leftward swing doesn't happen elsewhere in Washington, despite the statewide use of mail-in voting, Anderstone said.
- In statewide races, for instance, "in many cases the ballots get more conservative as time goes on," Anderstone said.
- He said that's because late voters statewide "tend to be people of lower socioeconomic status, who in Washington state are now more Republican."
What we're watching: Turnout is trending high in Seattle this year — about 55% — which is giving Wilson an extra boost, Anderstone and Kaushik said.
- The next round of results will be posted about 4pm Monday.