Progressives could oust key Seattle incumbents in Tuesday's election

Catch up quick: In the August primary, Mayor Bruce Harrell trailed progressive organizer Katie Wilson by nearly 10 percentage points.

• Meanwhile, incumbent City Council President Sara Nelson and incumbent City Attorney Ann Davison trailed progressive challengers in their respective races by more than 20 points each in the primary.

Here are a few things we'll be watching as the first election results stream in around 8pm Tuesday.

Whether Seattle has a Mamdani moment

Wilson's surprise August primary lead has sparked comparisons to Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist who beat former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary in June.

• Both races reflect "a pattern nationwide from Democrats" of "rejecting the establishment," Alex Hays, a Republican political consultant based in Tacoma, told Axios.
• Should Harrell, Nelson and Davison all lose, it would be "definitely a rebuke of the direction of the mayor and the City Council over the past four years," Heather Weiner, a Democratic consultant who worked on Harrell's opponent's campaign in 2021, told Axios.
• Wilson has told multiple outlets that she's "fine with being called" a socialist or democratic socialist. Like Mamdani, she has focused her campaign on combating unaffordability.

The effect of outside money

A pro-Harrell political action committee has spent more than $1.3 million opposing Wilson, much of which has gone toward attack ads in recent days.

• That kind of money can make a difference, Crystal Fincher, a political consultant who works with Democrats, told Axios.
• It's also possible the Harrell camp's recent attacks, many of which have focused on Wilson receiving money from her parents to help pay for child care, could backfire, Fincher said.
• "So many people in Seattle are in that position," she said, citing the high cost of child care in the city.

A new King County leader

The race for King County executive is "really close," Fincher said, with left-leaning candidates Girmay Zahilay and Claudia Balducci agreeing on many policies.

• The job is open for the first time since 2009, after longtime incumbent Dow Constantine stepped down this year.
• The role is central to addressing homelessness, public health, transit needs and mental health resources, among other regional issues, Fincher said.

Days of ballot counting

Ballots will be counted in the vote-by-mail election over several days, so the results from election night are bound to change.

• That said, progressives in Seattle usually gain ground in subsequent ballot drops — so if moderate candidates are losing on election night, they're highly unlikely to catch up, Fincher said.

What's next: Voters on Tuesday will also be deciding tax measures, school board races and several key state legislative contests outside Seattle.

• Ballots must be returned to an official drop box by 8pm Tuesday (or mailed and postmarked by Election Day) to be counted.

Go deeper: Your complete guide to the Nov. 4 election in Seattle