Washington state had the smallest rightward shift in 2024
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Washington had the smallest rightward shift of any state in the 2024 presidential election, an Axios analysis finds — although, after three weeks of vote counting, it's no longer true that the state trended slightly more blue.
The big picture: Many states, even solidly liberal ones like California, New York and New Jersey, saw President-elect Trump improve on his 2020 performance by multiple percentage points. That didn't happen in Washington.
By the numbers: Trump captured 39.01% of the vote in Washington this year, compared to 38.77% in 2020 — a gain of about one-quarter of a percentage point, per the Washington secretary of state's office.
- Those numbers reflect ballot counts through Tuesday, the deadline for Washington's 39 counties to certify their election results.
What they're saying: Victor Menaldo, a University of Washington political science professor, told Axios that Washington's tech-heavy economy, higher-than-average education level and reliance on global trade are among the reasons Trump's economic message may not have resonated as well here.
- The state's comparatively high income levels likely also played a role, he said.
- "Because of high home prices and because of increases in real wages, we were less vulnerable to high inflation," Menaldo wrote in an email.
Between the lines: In a news release, Jim Walsh, chair of the state Republican Party, said the results show that Republicans are "getting more competitive overall" in the Evergreen State.
- While Trump "has always faced headwinds in Washington," Walsh told Axios, "they were a little weaker this time than last."
Democrats still view this year's election in Washington as a big success, citing how they won all statewide elected offices, defeated three out of four conservative-backed ballot measures, and are poised to gain one to two seats in the state legislature.
- "People have experienced Democratic representation and leadership here and they like what we're doing," Shasti Conrad, chair of the Washington State Democrats, told Axios.
- "I certainly believe we are still a Democratic stronghold."