Strong El Niño could worsen Northwest fire season
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A potentially powerful "super" El Niño may be taking shape, raising the chances for a longer and drier wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest this year.
Why it matters: El Niños — driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures — can reshape global weather patterns, push temperatures to record highs, and create conditions for the devastating wildfires and smoke that have increasingly come to define West Coast summers.
Driving the news: One European climate model —the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) — shows ocean temperatures rising steadily toward El Niño conditions, with some projections suggesting the potential for a very strong event later this year.
- There's "real potential for the strongest El Nino event in 140 years," said atmospheric scientist Paul Roundy on X.
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center forecast a 61% chance of El Niño developing May through July and lasting through the end of the year, with a range of outcomes, including the chance of a "very strong" event.
- A strong El Niño could also push global temperatures toward record highs in 2027.
The big picture: El Niño's effects tend to build over time, but on average, weather conditions in the Pacific Northwest are warm and dry during El Niño events, Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, told Axios.
- That kind of pattern can help dry out vegetation earlier in the season, setting the stage for wildfire risk as summer heat builds.
Yes, but: Recent years haven't always followed the script. A La Niña forecast for the 2025–26 winter fizzled, with parts of the region seeing much lower-than-expected snowpack.
Zoom in: In Oregon, the warm winter left much of the state in a snow drought, raising concerns about water supplies and how quickly landscapes could dry out, said Fleishman.
- Snow water equivalent — how much water the snow holds — in Oregon was measured at its lowest recorded level on April 1.
What they're doing: State officials say they are ramping up for fire season: monitoring fuel conditions, staffing crews, and preparing for a range of scenarios as summer approaches.
- Dan Quinones, a district forester with the Oregon Department of Forestry, said he expects "another challenging year."
- "I try not to anticipate things I don't have control over, but I want to prepare for the worst," Quinones told Your Oregon News.
The bottom line: A potentially powerful El Niño is drawing global attention — and for the Pacific Northwest, the focus is on how a shifting climate pattern could shape wildfire season.