Oregon isn't just losing businesses, it's losing their growth

The big picture: Several state, industry and academic reports detail how competitive incentives, aggressive recruitment and more direct engagement from elected leaders in other states are shaping where Oregon-grown companies go next.

• While companies aren't fleeing en masse, some are building new facilities and hiring additional workers elsewhere, citing higher costs, longer permitting timelines and a complicated path to growth in Oregon — concerns business groups say have gone largely unaddressed.

Threat level: Experts Axios spoke with were hesitant to put a precise dollar amount on the problem, given the variables involved, but say it's costing the state billions in private investment, tax revenue and thousands of potential jobs.

• If not addressed soon, they warn, it could hollow out Oregon's economy and erode its job base.
• Since 2020, Oregon has ranked in the bottom half of U.S. states for real GDP growth.

State of play: Nearly a quarter of 400 Oregon businesses surveyed in a 2025 University of Oregon study said they had been contacted by out-of-state recruiters since 2021.

• Companies surveyed described receiving calls and emails from economic development offices in Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina. Of those contacted, 68% reported expanding or moving some operations outside Oregon as a result.
• In some cases, recruiters assembled incentive packages within days. One business owner told researchers that South Carolina officials put together a proposal in 24 hours — and that then-Gov. Nikki Haley offered her personal phone number to address any concerns.

"That's the kind of golden treatment other states are offering that I don't believe Oregon has really institutionalized," Robert Parker, the UO study's lead author and director of the Community Planning Workshop, told Axios.

Zoom in: Oregon's economic development system spans roughly 800 regional, local and state entities. And while Business Oregon, the state's economic development agency, runs dozens of funding programs, it lacks the mandate, tools and political backing to operate like a modern, aggressive retention agency, Parker added.

• "There's not a lack of people who are engaged in this," Parker said. "It's really a lack of focus and common agenda that everybody in the state is working off of."

Yes, but: Incentives alone rarely determine where a company expands, according to research from W.E. Upjohn Institute.

• They can, however, act as the final nudge for those on the fence.

Case in point: Dutch Bros, the Grants Pass–founded coffee chain now valued in the billions, shifted 40% of its corporate staff to Phoenix last year.

• The move aimed to bring day-to-day operations closer to its fastest-growing markets — and a major airport hub — making it easier to scale nationally, the company said.
• The parent company of Tektronix, once the state's largest employer, relocated its headquarters to Raleigh, North Carolina, last March, citing the city's strong research presence and skilled workforce as a factor for the decision.

What we're watching: Gov. Tina Kotek is betting the state can reverse this trend.

• She unveiled a "Prosperity Roadmap" in December to centralize what has been a fragmented approach to keeping Oregon competitive and address other issues like workforce training gaps and permitting hurdles.
• "As governor, it will be my job to be the 'chief prosperity officer' and lead our state towards becoming the best place in America to start and grow your business," she wrote on X in January.