How Oregon's falling birth rate could shape its future
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Oregonians are having fewer babies, contributing to the state's plummeting birth rate, which is among the lowest in the nation.
Why it matters: A falling birth rate will have a strong influence on the shape of Oregon's demographics and economy in the coming decades.
- The state's birth rate is now below replacement level — meaning Oregon's economy is "fully reliant upon migration for any population growth," according to Josh Lerner, an economist with the Office of Economic Analysis.
Meanwhile, migration isn't looking too good either. "Portland appears to be continuing to lose residents in the urban core, while the metro level is now treading water," Lerner wrote in a recent blog post.
By the numbers: Since 2007, the number of births has fallen from 13.3 per 1,000 residents to 9.3 in 2022, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
- That's a nearly 30% decline overall and it mirrors a national trend as well as a global one.
- Oregon has the 5th lowest birth rate nationwide.
The big picture: The nationwide birth rate declined significantly between 2007 and 2022, dropping from 14.3 births per 1,000 people to 11.1, or nearly 23%.
State of play: Falling birth rates are making Oregon an older state, with the median age of 40.5 years — the highest it has ever been.
- Without an influx of new residents, the state's labor force is likely to shrink in the coming decades as the population continues to age.
The intrigue: In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the birth rate was steadily declining nationally year over year (except for a slight bump in 2014).
- The number of births increased only slightly from 2021 to 2022, from 3.66 million to 3.67 million.
- Ultimately, the COVID-era leveling-off and the 2022 uptick in birth rates may only be a "short-term deviation from an ongoing trend of considerably greater importance," per a report by the Brookings Institution.