Analysis: Pressure mounts as Mayor O'Connell's office ponders major ECD projects

Behind the scenes: Leaders in Nashville's business community have grown frustrated with the perception that these projects are languishing despite being near the goal line.

State of play: The racetrack renovation appears to be the closest to completion, but that project has been a political hot potato in Nashville for about 15 years. Announcing an agreement does not mean the project will be approved by the Metro Council.

Meanwhile: Metro and TPAC have been at odds over the memorandum of understanding the two sides signed, which assigned about $30 million in infrastructure costs to the fine arts nonprofit.

Yes, and: In 2020, Metro approved a $175 million no-interest loan for Oracle, to be paid back with future property tax dollars. The scope of Oracle's plans for the River North property greatly expanded in recent years, with chairman Larry Ellison saying the site would become a new corporate headquarters.

• Oracle has been in talks with Metro about its economic development agreement. Similar to TPAC, the sticking point is infrastructure costs.

Zoom out: The Boring Company announced plans earlier this year for a tunnel connecting downtown to the airport. The Elon Musk-owned company has broader ambitions to build an entire tunnel network in Nashville.

• Some business leaders want O'Connell to be more publicly supportive of the proposal.

Friction point: O'Connell maintained a pro-economic development track record during his time on the council until the new Titans stadium funding was on the table. He voted against the plan and used his opposition as a centerpiece to his mayoral campaign.

The intrigue: The business community didn't know which version of O'Connell would govern in the mayor's office: the one who voted for their economic development deals or the one who opposed the largest project ever approved by the city.

The big picture: By taking a hardline negotiating stance on the prospective economic development deals, it could be argued O'Connell is governing how he campaigned.

• While business lobbyists want such deals approved quickly, O'Connell could be siding with a more populist anti-development sentiment.

• There's also still ample time for O'Connell to assuage the restless development community if that's the route he chooses to take.
• Dedicating funds for infrastructure costs at River North and TPAC and saying nice things publicly about the Music City Loop plan would go far in winning over the business community.

Inside the room: In the midst of handling these ECD issues, O'Connell's administration saw a significant staffing change that creates an air of uncertainty for how the mayor's office will operate.

• Marjorie Pomeroy-Wallace, who managed his mayoral campaign and served as chief of staff since he took office, resigned last week. She was replaced by Masami Tyson, who is well connected in Nashville but not a Metro insider.

What we're watching: If the ECD projects fall apart, the business community will likely start to ponder recruiting more appetizing candidates who could run for mayor in two years. State Rep. Bob Freeman tops their wishlist.

• At the same time the business community is growing restless, progressive activists are looking for O'Connell's administration to do more on affordable housing initiatives.
• The specter of a challenger to run against him from the progressive wing of Nashville politics (state Rep. Aftyn Behn, state Rep. Justin Jones, Councilmember Zulfat Suara) is also on the table.

The bottom line: As it stands now, O'Connell has high approval ratings and would be difficult to unseat.

• How O'Connell handles the next several months on ECD issues could set the table for Nashville's next mayor's race.