Analysis: Forget the noise, O'Connell is poised for reelection

The next mayor's race may seem like it's far away, but the Metro courthouse intrigue knows no offseason.

• Political gossip has bubbled up lately that Mayor Freddie O'Connell could face a legitimate challenger to his reelection bid in 2027, but such talk seems to be divorced from reality.

State of play: O'Connell enjoys wide public approval that elected officials at any level rarely find in this rancorous political environment.

• A new Vanderbilt poll puts O'Connell's approval rating at 67%. Even more noteworthy, 58% of residents think the city is on the right track, a sharp improvement from just a few years ago.
• O'Connell's support is powered by the historic victory of his Choose How You Move transportation funding referendum and the passage of the ambitious East Bank redevelopment plan.

The big picture: The polling data says he's stabilized Metro government following a tumultuous seven years dating back to Mayor Megan Barry's resignation.

• Incredibly, an incumbent Nashville mayor hasn't won reelection since Karl Dean in 2011, but O'Connell is poised to put that streak to rest.

What we're hearing: Although the election is more than two years away, this is exactly the time when names of potential candidates for mayor start to emerge.

• O'Connell captured the mayor's office thanks in part to progressive support. Some of those backers have been frustrated with his administration's support for policing initiatives like the Fusus surveillance video program and license plate readers.
• Conversely, some business leaders are antsy that O'Connell hasn't been more aggressive in pursuing economic development projects like the fairgrounds racetrack. Sources say that a racetrack offer is within reach that would improve on the agreement reached by former Mayor John Cooper by shifting more financial burden to Speedway Motorsports.
• Complicating a reelection bid is that O'Connell is likely to propose a substantial property tax increase in the coming months.

The intrigue: If challengers decide to enter the race, some names I've heard bandied about include Metro Councilmembers Zulfat Suara and Joy Styles.

• Three of Nashville's last four mayors, including O'Connell, were council members before winning the corner office. Some conservative leaders have mentioned former Councilmember Emily Evans, who led the opposition to the transportation referendum.

Yes, but: O'Connell's next two years are likely to focus more on affordable housing and pocketbook issues that residents want the city to pursue, according to the Vanderbilt poll.

• He's already started fundraising with an eye toward 2027. A fundraiser delayed because of last week's storms featured a notable list of political influencers whose support is necessary to bankroll a campaign.

The bottom line: In addition to all that, O'Connell proved in 2023 to be an excellent campaigner who vanquished a strong field of candidates across the political spectrum.

• O'Connell has large name recognition, generous public support and a landmark political accomplishment on his resume putting him in strong position to win a second term.