Key Chicago political storylines to watch in 2025
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We're pulling out our crystal ball and previewing some of the storylines that could emerge in Chicago politics this year.
Here's what we're watching:
Brandon Johnson
The mayor had a rough 2024. It started with fighting with other Democrats over migrant funding and services, followed by voters rejecting his homeless initiative Bring Chicago Home at the ballot box in March.
- His popularity hit new lows after a prolonged budget fight in the fall where he initially proposed raising taxes but was defeated by the City Council.
- Johnson's chaotic reshuffling of the Chicago Board of Education and the ongoing strife over the Chicago Teachers Union contract have turned a solid union town against one of its own.
Yes, but: With all the missteps and bad press, the city's violence numbers went down, again. The mayor has pledged to get the number of homicides under 500 this year, which hasn't happened since 2019. If he can prove his anti-violence measures are working, it may make last year a distant memory.
CTU elections
CTU president Stacy Davis Gates and other union leaders set out in 2024 to secure a "transformational budget" for Chicago schools. After all, they have an ally in the mayor's office.
Yes, but: CPS CEO Pedro Martinez stands in their way, even though the school board controversially fired him in December.
- Add in the uncertainty surrounding the expanded partly elected school board starting Jan. 15.
State of play: This isn't the longest CTU contract negotiation in Chicago history. The union went over a year without one in 2015/2016. But in recent years, CTU has gone on strike to put pressure on the city. This year, they can't do that without risking the political future of the mayor.
- If Davis-Gates can pull off this budget negotiation in her union's favor, it will go a long way to her own reelection campaign in April.
The governor's mansion
Gov. JB Pritzker is a rising national star with possible ambitions to run for the White House in 2028. One problem: There is a gubernatorial election between now and then in 2026.
The vibe: Will Pritzker run for a third term or step aside to focus on bigger ambitions? The governor is extremely popular among Democrats, and Republicans have yet to find a candidate to unite their party.
- Pritzker will have to decide on his reelection plans later this year.
Between the lines: Pritzker and Johnson locked in a public power struggle in 2024 over everything from migrants to school funding to a new Bears stadium. This year started with a new fight over hemp regulations.
- So watch for how the souring relationship between the governor and the mayor plays out during the spring legislative session in Springfield.
What's next: If Pritzker doesn't run for reelection, watch for which current statewide officeholders make waves in 2025, including Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Comptroller Susana Mendoza.
Senate musical chairs
U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin will turn 81 this year and could decide to retire instead of running for another six-year term in 2026. This opens yet another statewide seat for Illinois politicians. Republicans like former statehouse leader Jim Durkin could be in play, as well as statewide Democrats, including Stratton and Mendoza.
Between the lines: The key will be to watch who is raising money.
- Right now, Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias is filling his campaign war chest. That money could be used to run for governor, for Senate, for reelection or even mayor of Chicago in 2027.