Chicago's winter weather forecast looks dry and warm
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Despite early frigid temperatures this week, there's a heightened chance of higher-than-average temperatures this winter in Chicago, per a new NOAA seasonal outlook.
The big picture: The combination of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and record high global ocean temperatures are likely to shape the upcoming winter season in potentially unexpected ways, Axios Generate's Andrew Freedman writes.
Driving the news: NOAA predictions call for a relatively warm winter in Chicago, with less snow.
Zoom out: Data suggest a higher-than-average likelihood of unusually mild temperatures across much of the Lower 48 states, particularly along the northern tier and into the Northeast, as well as in northern Alaska, per NOAA.
- However, this will not necessarily translate to a lack of snow.
El Niño winters in the U.S. tend to feature a split jet stream flow across the country.
- A southern branch carries storms from California and across the southern tier of the country, bringing above average precipitation to areas from central California to Florida.
- The northern branch of the jet stream, meanwhile, brings cold, Arctic air.
In situations where the northern and southern branch closely interact with one another, known as "phasing," major, moisture-rich storms can form.
- If temperatures are cold enough over land, heavy precipitation could fall as snow.
The intrigue: It's not yet clear how record warm global average temperatures will tip the scales in terms of U.S. air temperature and precipitation trends this winter.
- But they do raise the threat for some surprises, potentially in the form of extreme weather events.