Axios

President Trump spent his 2024 campaign promising Americans he'd lower grocery prices.

• Virtually all major grocery categories are now more expensive than they were a year ago, some substantially so.

Why it matters: Trump's economic polling numbers are about the worst they've ever been, and almost on par with the worst of the Biden presidency.

An ICE raid on a Hyundai-linked battery plant in Georgia last week will delay construction plans by months, the CEO of Hyundai Motor Co. said Thursday.

Why it matters: Hyundai's now-$26 billion commitment to build in the U.S. was one of the signature early wins for President Trump, but that's all up in the air as the repercussions of the immigration raid take hold.

The workers at a Hyundai-linked plant in Georgia raided by ICE last week had the wrong visas — and the company should have asked for help getting the right ones, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells Mike Allen in the premiere episode of "The Axios Show."

Why it matters: The images of hundreds of South Korean workers being shackled and hauled off like criminals shocked a close U.S. ally, and raised the question of whether the Trump administration's economic and immigration policies are at odds with each other.

The Social Security cost of living adjustment, or COLA, for next year is trending toward 2.8%, slightly higher than in 2025.

Why it matters: The COLA is an annual raise for retirees who rely on Social Security — closely watched by the nation's seniors.

Two new indicators out Thursday illustrate the economy's woes: Prices accelerated again last month as the labor market shows fresh signs of weakness.

Why it matters: Companies are passing along tariff-related costs, squeezing consumers already hit with price hikes from the recent inflation shock. This time, however, Americans don't have the tailwind of a roaring jobs market.

President Trump will own the economy's performance by the end of 2025, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells Mike Allen on the "The Axios Show"— a much later window than he and other administration officials have previously claimed.

Why it matters: Economic data has been somewhat weaker in recent months, and now Lutnick is pushing out the window for when Trump fully owns the economy's performance.

LB Pharmaceuticals, a developer of drugs for neuropsychiatric diseases like acute schizophrenia, raised $285 million in its IPO.

Why it's the BFD: This is the first major biopharma IPO since February, the longest such drought in 15 years.

Some of private equity's biggest bigs are warning that their industry will consolidate, as some firms die of distribution thirst.

The big picture: Private equity dollars will continue to grow. The number of private equity firms, however, may be another story.

The Consumer Price Index rose in August, though a gauge that excludes food and energy held steady, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday.

Why it matters: Overall inflation heated up for the fourth straight month as President Trump's tariffs weigh on prices, posing challenges to the Federal Reserve.

Record income from its AI cloud business, including nearly half a trillion dollars in outstanding contract revenue, sent Oracle's stock up about 40% Wednesday. This overshadowed the fact that the company missed analysts' earnings estimates.

Why it matters: It's a signal of how lucrative stock-picking can be, but only if you accurately forecast which companies can win over investors on their guidance alone. And that's a hazy game, since forecasts can be more storytelling than fact.

The U.S. population will be smaller and grow more slowly than previously projected, a result of the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration, per newly revised Congressional Budget Office estimates out Wednesday.

Why it matters: It's an economic red flag, with the potential to drive labor shortages, higher prices and a crisis of care for the nation's elderly.

Here's what's new on Hulu, Netflix, HBO Max, Prime Video, Paramount+, BET+ and PBS.

What we're watching: A new season of "Only Murders in the Building," a Miranda Cosgrove-led romantic comedy, and a documentary about the history of Black television.