Without immigration, U.S. population could start to decline as soon as 2031
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The U.S. population will be smaller and grow more slowly than previously projected, a result of the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration, per newly revised Congressional Budget Office estimates out Wednesday.
Why it matters: It's an economic red flag, with the potential to drive labor shortages, higher prices and a crisis of care for the nation's elderly.
State of play: Deaths are projected to start exceeding births in 2031, two years earlier than previously projected, as a result of the White House crackdown, plus increased funding for immigration enforcement in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, leaving fewer immigrant families to have children and add to the population.
- At that point immigration would be the main driver of new population growth instead of births.
- Fertility rates have also declined slightly more than expected, per the CDC, since the agency published its January projection.
Catch up quick: The CBO had already revised down its growth projections in January, after the Biden administration cut back on immigration.
- But the nonpartisan agency's latest estimates take into account the current administration's more aggressive recent actions, as well as the new legislation.
Zoom in: The CBO is now projecting that 290,000 immigrants will be "removed" from from the country, due to the new law, from 2026 - 2029.
- Another 30,000 would leave voluntarily.
Zoom out: The CBO previously said the population would grow from its current 350 million to 372 million in 2055.
- Now, the agency says the population will be smaller and will grow more slowly, reaching only 367 million by 2055.
- The population would also contain fewer working-age people — a hit to the labor supply that could slow economic growth.
Reality check: The CBO says its projections are highly uncertain.
- The estimates also swing significantly with policy shifts.
Between the lines: There are some predicting that the population could actually start declining as soon as this year because of net negative immigration— or more people leaving the country than coming in.
- That would be a recipe for economic stagnation, as economic writer Derek Thompson has recently outlined. Think fewer working-age people to pay into Social Security, harvest crops, build homes, staff restaurants or provide health care.
Yes, but: The CBO is still predicting positive net immigration in 2025, mainly because of an increase of lawful permanent residents that offset big declines in unauthorized immigration.
What to watch: A three-year economic forecast based on these projections is due out Friday.
