The soft money flowing into New Hampshire on behalf of Nikki Haley has a hard target: independent voters.
Why it matters: Winning the support of the state's "undeclared" voters — which make up 40% of the electorate — has always been the key to winning the first-in-the-nation primary.
With the Democratic National Committee essentially boycotting the primary, that's even more true this year. All the action is on the GOP side.
That means the number of independent voters (399,395) can exceed the number of registered Republicans (298,470) on election day.
Driving the news: The former South Carolina governor's supporters — many of whom are donating "soft money" to super PACs, which don't have limits on campaign contributions — are planning to leverage Haley's broad anti-Trump appeal and relatively moderate views to win over independents.
A new PAC started by wealthy business executives launched an "Independents for Nikki" initiative shortly after Thanksgiving, pouring millions into efforts to boost her standing with undeclared voters.
The plan is to take "a very targeted surgical approach" to juicing independent turnout, starting in New Hampshire, said Bonnie Anderson, one of the PAC's founders.
"Nikki is the most electable candidate in this election," Anderson said.
The intrigue:As he did in 2016, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has made New Hampshire the linchpin of his campaign.
"There is no Democratic primary to speak of, so if you want to have an impact, you have to vote in our primary," Christie told college students Friday.
He's currently in third in New Hampshire, behind Haley and former President Trump.
How it works: New Hampshire is one of a handful of states that allows unaffiliated voters to participate in a primary of their choice.
Independent voters just request a ballot — either Democratic or Republicans — on election day.
Flashback: In 2012, the last time there wasn't a competitive Democratic contest, independent voters made up roughly half the GOP primary, notes GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini.
"Undeclared" voters were at 47%, just a tick below actual Republicans, who were at 49%.
In 2020, with Trump the clear GOP nominee, the picture was flipped.
Independents decided to participate in the primary in which they could make a difference, ultimately comprising 44% of the electorate in the Democratic primary.
What we're hearing: In 2020, that 44% translated into 130,000 independent voters, according to Robert Schwartz, whose group, Primary Pivot, plans to spend $600,000 to target independents.
"That's a huge amount of voters," he said. "We ... can encourage them to vote strategically in the Republican primary for a candidate that supports democracy," Schwartz said.
Between the lines: New Hampshire's independents aren't necessarily moderates. And they don't always vote as a bloc.
In the 2012 GOP primary, Rand Paul — a self-identified libertarian — won 31% of the unaffiliated vote.
The bottom line: Trump holds a dominant lead over the rest of the Republican field both nationally and in New Hampshire, raising the stakes for a strong showing by Haley in the Granite State.
A win there could be her only shot to stop Trump.
"We believe that if Trump romps in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the nomination is effectively over, so you have to at least have a competitive race in one of those two states," Schwartz said.